27 November 2011

Rank 5 / 47: New York

NEW YORK




Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:

Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
05 / 47
62.88%
+26.86%
+19.60%
+8.57%
+9.72%
+1.15
2004
05 / 47
58.37%
+18.29%
+20.75%
-6.69%
+2.98%
+3.71
2000
04 / 48
60.21%
+24.98%
+24.43%
-3.88%
+8.00%
+4.12
1996
04 / 48
59.47%
+28.86%
+20.34%
+13.01%
+2.96%
+10.05
1992
05 / 47
49.73%
+15.85%
+10.29%
+11.75%
+13.29%
+1.54
1988
09 / 43
51.62%
+4.10%
+11.83%
+12.11%
-10.49%
+1.62

Trend: STEADY DEMOCRATIC


New York margin average 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM +19.82%


(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)


Links



Helpful Info Links
Helpful Election Links
NY county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
NY VR
NY Population 2008: 19,490,297
NY Elections - current
NY Population Density: 159.4 persons per sq Km.
NY elections archive - (1974 - present)
Electoral Vote Density: 628,719 persons per EV.

The partisan rankings for Ranking 5 (New York) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow, two graphics):




Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
01 – 51DC85,92%DC79,84%DC76,20%DC75,85%DC75,55%DC68,34%01 – 51DC71,66%DC61,49%DC65,12%DC56,54%DC63,64%DC71,00%
02 – 50HI45,26%MA25,16%RI29,08%MA33,39%MA18,52%RI11,71%02 – 50MN0,18%GA14,81%GA33,78%MA8,97%RI32,25%RI61,74%
03 – 49VT37,01%RI20,75%MA27,30%RI32,89%RI18,02%IA10,22%03 – 49MA2,79%RI10,47%AR30,01%MN5,51%MA30,12%HI57,52%
04 – 48RI27,81%VT20,14%NY24,98%NY28,86%AR17,72%HI9,52%04 – 48RI3,65%WV4,51%WV16,14%RI6,19%HI21,12%MA52,74%
05 – 47NY26,86%NY18,29%HI18,33%HI25,29%NY15,85%MA7,85%05 – 47MD5,49%MN3,94%MA15,67%SD8,63%MN12,53%ME37,68%
06 – 46MA25,81%MD12,98%CT17,47%VT22,26%VT15,70%MN7,02%06 – 46PA7,35%MD2,96%AL13,11%WI9,67%ME12,23%NY37,25%
07 – 45MD25,44%CT10,37%MD16,39%ME20,86%IL14,24%WV4,74%07 – 45IA7,39%HI1,90%SC13,04%OR10,12%MS40.44%WV35,87%
08 – 44IL25,11%IL10,34%NJ15,83%CT18,14%MD14,18%OR4,67%08 – 44NY8,01%MA0,15%TN13,00%CA13,46%WV8,82%CT35,72%
09 – 43DE24,98%CA9,95%DE13,06%NJ17,86%CA13,39%NY4,10%09 – 43WI9,18%TN0,29%MN12,87%MI14,39%MI6,73%MI33,61%
10 – 42CA24,03%ME9,00%IL12,01%IL17,51%WV13,02%WI3,62%10 – 42WV10,51%AR0,61%RI11,28%IA17,13%NY5,46%VT32,61%
11 – 41CT22,37%HI8,74%CA11,80%AR16,94%MN11,63%WA1,59%11 – 41HI11,28%AL1,30%NC11,05%NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
12 – 40ME17,32%DE7,59%VT9,94%MN16,14%WA11,44%IL2,08%12 – 40OR12,17%MS1,32%KY7,19%WA18,28%LA20.11%NJ31,75%
13 - 39WA17,08%WA7,18%WA5,58%MD15,99%HI11,40%PA2,32%13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%MD30,94%
14 - 38MI16,44%NJ6,68%MI5,13%DE15,25%MO10,15%MD2,91%14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37OR16,35%OR4,16%ME5,11%WV14,75%OR9,95%VT3,52%15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36NJ15,53%MN3,48%PA4,17%MI13,21%PA9,02%CA3,57%16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35NM15,13%MI3,42%MN2,40%CA12,89%NM8,56%MO3,98%17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34WI13,90%PA2,50%OR0,44%WA12,54%ME8,33%NM4,96%18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%
)
OR27,75%


Electoral Development (electors through history):  8 (1789), 12 (1792-1800), 19 (1804-1820), 36 (1824-1828), 42 (1832-1840) 36 (1844-1848), 35 (1852-1860), 33 (1864-1868), 35 (1872-1880), 36 (1884-1900), 39 (1904-1908), 45 (1912-1928), 47 (1932-1948), 45 (1952-1960), 43 (1964-1968), 41 (1972-1980), 36 (1984-1988), 33 (1992-2000), 31 (2004-2008), 29 EV (2012- )

SUMMARY

New York is the 5th most liberal state and the 47th most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +26.86% and having voted 19.60% more Democratic than the national margin in 2008. 

New York was the 5th most liberal state and the 47th most conservative state in 2004, with a Democratic winning margin of +18.29% and having voted 20.75% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.

New York was the 4th most liberal state and the 48th most conservative state in 2000, with a Democratic winning margin of +24.98% and having voted 24.43% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.
From 1904-2008, New York went for the GOP 12 times, for the DEMS 15 times.

Since 1948 New York went for the GOP 
6 times, for the DEMS 10 times.
New York has a very mixed voting record, but was considered a primarily Republican state until 1932. From 1860-1892, New York was one by the one party or the other by single digits, mostly low single digits.

During this time, New York had 33, then 35, then 36 EV (more than it will have in 2012), and more importantly, New York's percentage of the Electoral College of that time was ENORMOUS: in 1888, with 36 EV, New York represented 8.9% of the EC. When New York hit it's peak of electors (47, from 1932 to 1948), it still represented 8.9% of the EC. With 29 Electors starting in 2012, New York now represents 5.4% of the Electoral College, so the state has lost on electoral "firepower" throughout the years.

1896 was the first year since 1856 that a candidate won New York with a double digit margin, and from 1896-1936, the state was won by double digit margins in most of those cycles. The one noticeable anomaly was 1928, where Hoover carried the Empire State by just 
+2.35%. 1928 was the election cycle in which the Democratic candidate, Al Smith, was the first Roman Catholic to be nominated for President. New York was a very heavily Catholic state at that time, is still now. Al Smith flipped MA and RI in that cycle, but not New York. 

Franklin Delano Roosevelt carried New York all four times. New Yorker Thomas Dewey was unable to pry the state away from Roosevelt in 1944, but he did win his home state against Harry Truman by just +0.99% in 1948.  

New York LOVED Ike in the 1950s, but that love did not rub off on Richard Nixon, who lost the state in both 1960 and 1968, but picked it up with a sizeable margin in his historic 1972 landslide. 

Of course, the state superlative margin of all time is LBJ's record setting election of 1964: LBJ +37.25%, a raw vote margin of 2.7 million votes. 

Jimmy Carter carried New York by a lean margin in 1976. Ronald Reagan picked it-up by an even leaner margin in 1980 and retained it in 1984. 

Since 1988, New York has stayed firmly in the Democratic column. President Obama's +26.86% winning margin in New York was the largest winning margin for a Democratic candidate in a two-man race since 1964, the largest winning percentage (62.88%) since 1964 and the third largest of all time in New York's history.
Part of the unique make up of New York is its relationship to the largest city in the USA: New York City, which has grown more and more liberal in the last 24 years. Like Rhode Island, New York has tended to give most incumbents a victory (Carter is the exception). New York has become an absolutely essential part of the electoral column for a Democratic victory. A Republican can win the White House without New York. A Democrat cannot. Since 1892, virtually every Democratic candidate who won also won New York (excepting Truman in 1948, Wilson's re-election in 1916).

NY - Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
% Margn
GOP
1920
Harding
64.56%
+37.60%
DEM
1964
Johnson
68.56%
+37.25%
IND
1912
Roosevelt, T.
24.56%
highest Ind showing
---------------------




All-time “squeaker”
1948
Dewey
45.99%
+0.99%

In New York, t
he Governor, Lt. Governor, both Senators and 21 of 29 US Representatives are Democrats. 8 US Representatives are Repubicans. In the New York Legislature, the Democrats have a hypermajority in the State Assembly, but the Republicans have a lean majority in the State Senate.  
Facit: New York is a "firewall" Democratic state.

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