19 November 2011

Rank 3 / 49: Vermont

VERMONT




Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:

Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
03 / 49
67.46%
+37.01%
+29.75%
+16.87%
+9.72%
+7.15
2004
04 / 48
58.94%
+20.14%
+22.60%
+10.20%
+2.98%
+13.18
2000
12 / 40
50.64%
+9.94%
+9.41%
-12.32%
+8.00%
+4.32
1996
06 / 46
53.35%
+22.26%
+13.74%
+7.09%
+2.96%
+4.13
1992
06 / 46
46.11%
+15.17%
+9.61%
+18.69%
+13.29%
+5.40
1988
15 / 37
51.10%
+3.52%
-4.21%
-13.59%
-10.49%
+3.10



Trend: 
STRONG DEMOCRATIC 

(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)

Links



Helpful Info Links Helpful Election Links
VT county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
VT VR
VT Population 2008: 621,270 VT VR archives
VT Population Density: 25.9 persons per sq Km.
VT Elections - current
Electoral Vote Density: 207,090 persons per EV. VT elections archive - (1974 - present)










The partisan rankings for Ranking 3 (Vermont) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow):


Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88
01 – 51DC85,92%DC79,84%DC76,20%DC75,85%DC75,55%DC68,34%
02 – 50HI45,26%MA25,16%RI29,08%MA33,39%MA18,52%RI11,71%
03 – 49VT37,01%RI20,75%MA27,30%RI32,89%RI18,02%IA10,22%
04 – 48RI27,81%VT20,14%NY24,98%NY28,86%AR17,72%HI9,52%
05 – 47NY26,86%NY18,29%HI18,33%HI25,29%NY15,85%MA7,85%
06 – 46MA25,81%MD12,98%CT17,47%VT22,26%VT15,70%MN7,02%
07 – 45MD25,44%CT10,37%MD16,39%ME20,86%IL14,24%WV4,74%
08 – 44IL25,11%IL10,34%NJ15,83%CT18,14%MD14,18%OR4,67%
09 – 43DE24,98%CA9,95%DE13,06%NJ17,86%CA13,39%NY4,10%
10 – 42CA24,03%ME9,00%IL12,01%IL17,51%WV13,02%WI3,62%
11 – 41CT22,37%HI8,74%CA11,80%AR16,94%MN11,63%WA1,59%
12 – 40ME17,32%DE7,59%VT9,94%MN16,14%WA11,44%IL2,08%
13 - 39WA17,08%WA7,18%WA5,58%MD15,99%HI11,40%PA2,32%
14 - 38MI16,44%NJ6,68%MI5,13%DE15,25%MO10,15%MD2,91%
15 - 37OR16,35%OR4,16%ME5,11%WV14,75%OR9,95%VT3,52%
16 - 36NJ15,53%MN3,48%PA4,17%MI13,21%PA9,02%CA3,57%


Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
01 – 51DC71,66%DC61,49%DC65,12%DC56,54%DC63,64%DC71,00%
02 – 50MN0,18%GA14,81%GA33,78%MA8,97%RI32,25%RI61,74%
03 – 49MA2,79%RI10,47%AR30,01%MN5,51%MA30,12%HI57,52%
04 – 48RI3,65%WV4,51%WV16,14%RI6,19%HI21,12%MA52,74%
05 – 47MD5,49%MN3,94%MA15,67%SD8,63%MN12,53%ME37,68%
06 – 46PA7,35%MD2,96%AL13,11%WI9,67%ME12,23%NY37,25%
07 – 45IA7,39%HI1,90%SC13,04%OR10,12%MS40.44%
)
WV35,87%
08 – 44NY8,01%MA0,15%TN13,00%CA13,46%WV8,82%CT35,72%
09 – 43WI9,18%TN0,29%MN12,87%MI14,39%MI6,73%MI33,61%
10 – 42WV10,51%AR0,61%RI11,28%IA17,13%NY5,46%VT32,61%
11 – 41HI11,28%AL1,30%NC11,05%NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
12 – 40OR12,17%MS1,32%KY7,19%WA18,28%LA20.11%
)
NJ31,75%
13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%
)
MD30,94%
14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%
)
OR27,75%
19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%
)
NM18,98%
28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%
29 - 23AL22,26%WA12,34%VA1,34%NV27,36%KY6,14%MT18,38%
30 - 22MT22,30%IA12,70%SD1,48%CO28,01%NV8,16%CA18,32%
31 - 21LA22,60%VA12,72%CA1,78%KY28,60%NH8,18%NV17,16%
32 - 20IN23,99%NJ13,42%IL1,97%NH29,12%SC5,79%ND16,09%
33 - 19NC24,00%TX13,86%NJ2,16%AZ31,26%MT9,01%WY13,12%
34 - 18MS24,39%CA16,78%NM2,47%IN32,77%CO9,14%AR12,66%
35 - 17VA25,19%FL17,02%WA3,88%TX32,96%VT9,22%IN12,42%
36 - 16SD26,47%NM18,18%NV4,36%LA36,97%FL9,60%NC12,30%
37 - 15TX27,50%IN18,35%CT5,17%VA37,72%TN3,83%OK11,49%
38 - 14SC27,99%CO24,00%MI5,39%TN37,95%NC8,25%SD11,22%
39 - 13CO28,32%MT24,39%ND5,85%AR38,11%VA10,87%TN11,01%
40 - 12FL30,66%KS24,56%MT7,44%KS38,15%SD11,31%UT9,73%
41 - 11ND31,04%OK25,53%KS7,55%ID38,20%NM12,10%KS9,03%
42 - 10KS33,67%AK27,94%IN7,62%WY38,54%IA12,19%VA7,36%
43 - 9NV33,88%SD28,83%VT11,20%NC40,58%IN12,30%NE5,21%



VT Electoral Development (electors through history): 4 (1792-1800), 6 (1804-1808), 8 (1812-1820), 7 (1820-1840), 6 (1844-1848), 5 (1852-1880), 4 (1884-1928), 3EV (1932-present) 



Vermont is the 3rd most liberal state and the 49th most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +37.01% and having voted 29.75% more Democratic than the national margin in 2008. 
It was the 4th most liberal state and the 48th most conservative state in 2004, with a Democratic winning margin of +20.14% and having voted 22.60% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.
It was the 12th most liberal state and the 40th most conservative state in 2004, with a Democratic winning margin of +9.94% and having voted 9.41% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.


Since 1904, VT went for the GOP 21 times, for the DEMS 6 times.
Since 1948, VT went for the GOP 10 times, for the DEMS 6 times.


Summary

If there was ever a state that vividly proves the theory of “Electoral Shift”, then Vermont is such a state. Vermont, one of the 13 founding colonies, was a staunch GOP state until 1988, where it still went for the GOP, but by a lean margin of +3.52% instead of the usual +25-40% margin. In fact, not only is VT the GOP record-holder, it also holds the longest consistent voting record of any state for any party in the Union, having gone 27cycles in a row for the GOP from 1856 through 1960 and 33 of 34 cycles from 1856-1988, the outlier being LBJ's election in 1964. VT and neighboring ME were the only two states in the Union to resist the Roosevelt landslide of 1936: VT went for Hoover (R) by +16.58% in 1932 and for Alf Landon (R) by +13.15% in 1936 . In 1912, when incumbent Taft (R) was crushed in a re-election defeat in a three-man race with Woodrow Wilson (D) and former Republican President Theodore Roosevelt (Ind), Taft only won two states: VT and UT, and VT with just +1.91%! This is how loyal VT was to the Republican Party.
VT also holds the record for the highest winning percentage of any GOP candidate in US history, namely, Calvin Coolidge with 78.22% in 1924. In other words, VT was the quintessential CORE GOP state for 128 years.

Since 1992, however, Vermont has made a complete 180 degree turn and voted Democratic consistently since then and is becoming more and more Democratic, also at the state level, with each election cycle. 

Example:the DEMS percentage average from 1948-1988 was 
40.96%, from 1948-2008 it was 45.43%, but the DEM average from 1992-2008 in VT is 55.30%– an 10 point jump.

Barack Obama's massive landslide in VT in 2008 is also a record setter, namely, the highest winning percentage (67.46%) and margin (+37.01%) for any Democratic candidate in VT history, having broken LBJ's record from 1964. Obama swept all 10 of Vermont's counties as well.

Vermont also has a strong independent twinge, being that is was once an independent Republic. There is, as in Alaska, a secessionist movement in VT, and in 2007 about 13% of Vermont's population supported Vermont's withdrawal from the Republic. This is almost double the amount from 2005, which was 8%. There is also a movement which favors separating Vermont from the U.S. or making it the 11th provinceof Canada. Some suggest the state should join Canada due to its liberal policies as opposed to remaining with the U.S.


VT - Superlatives YEAR Candidate Winning % % Margn
GOP
1924
Coolidge
78.22%
+62.55%
DEM
2008
Obama
67.46%
+37.01%
IND
1912
Roosevelt, T.
35.22%
highest Ind showing
---------------------



All-time “squeaker”
1912
Taft
37.13%
+1.91%


The Governor of VT is a Democrat (Peter Schumlin, 2010-). One senator is a Democrat (Leahy, 1975-), the other is an Independent-Socialist (Sanders, who was also the lone representative of VT for 15 years before he became Senator in an upset election in 2006) who, with Joe Lieberman (I-CT) caucuses with the Democrats. The lone Representative from VT is a Democrat. Both chambers of the
Vermont General Assembly have Democratic hypermajorities. Only the Lt. Governor of VT is a Republican and VT is one of the few states in the Union to have a split-executive.

Facit: VT has become a “firewall” Democratic state. It is statistically more secure than either MA or RI in the case of a Republican landslide.

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