18 November 2011

Rank 2 / 50: Hawaii


Hawaiì






Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:

Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
02 / 50
71.85%
+45.26%
+38.00%
+36.52%
+9.72%
+26.80
2004
11 / 41
54.01%
+8.74%
+11.20%
-9.59%
+2.98%
+6.61
2000
05 / 47
55.79%
+18.33%
+17.81%
-6.96%
+8.00%
+1.04
1996
05 / 47
56.93%
+25.29%
+16.77%
+13.89%
+2.96%
+10.93
1992
13 / 39
48.09%
+11.40%
+5.84%
+1.88%
+13.29%
+11.41
1988
04 / 48
54.27%
+9.52%
+17.25%
+20.80%
-10.49%
+10.31



Trend: 
STRONG DEMOCRATIC

HI county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)
Here the partisan rankings for Rankings 1 and 2 (DC and Hawaii) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 (highlighted in yellow, you will need to scroll to the right to see 1984 backwards to 1964):

Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
01 – 51DC85,92%DC79,84%DC76,20%DC75,85%DC75,55%DC68,34%01 – 51DC71,66%DC61,49%DC65,12%DC56,54%DC63,64%DC71,00%
02 – 50HI45,26%MA25,16%RI29,08%MA33,39%MA18,52%RI11,71%02 – 50MN0,18%GA14,81%GA33,78%MA8,97%RI32,25%RI61,74%
03 – 49VT37,01%RI20,75%MA27,30%RI32,89%RI18,02%IA10,22%03 – 49MA2,79%RI10,47%AR30,01%MN5,51%MA30,12%HI57,52%
04 – 48RI27,81%VT20,14%NY24,98%NY28,86%AR17,72%HI9,52%04 – 48RI3,65%WV4,51%WV16,14%RI6,19%HI21,12%MA52,74%
05 – 47NY26,86%NY18,29%HI18,33%HI25,29%NY15,85%MA7,85%05 – 47MD5,49%MN3,94%MA15,67%SD8,63%MN12,53%ME37,68%
06 – 46MA25,81%MD12,98%CT17,47%VT22,26%VT15,70%MN7,02%06 – 46PA7,35%MD2,96%AL13,11%WI9,67%ME12,23%NY37,25%
07 – 45MD25,44%CT10,37%MD16,39%ME20,86%IL14,24%WV4,74%07 – 45IA7,39%HI1,90%SC13,04%OR10,12%MS40.44%
)
WV35,87%
08 – 44IL25,11%IL10,34%NJ15,83%CT18,14%MD14,18%OR4,67%08 – 44NY8,01%MA0,15%TN13,00%CA13,46%WV8,82%CT35,72%
09 – 43DE24,98%CA9,95%DE13,06%NJ17,86%CA13,39%NY4,10%09 – 43WI9,18%TN0,29%MN12,87%MI14,39%MI6,73%MI33,61%
10 – 42CA24,03%ME9,00%IL12,01%IL17,51%WV13,02%WI3,62%10 – 42WV10,51%AR0,61%RI11,28%IA17,13%NY5,46%VT32,61%
11 – 41CT22,37%HI8,74%CA11,80%AR16,94%MN11,63%WA1,59%11 – 41HI11,28%AL1,30%NC11,05%NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
12 – 40ME17,32%DE7,59%VT9,94%MN16,14%WA11,44%IL2,08%12 – 40OR12,17%MS1,32%KY7,19%WA18,28%LA20.11%
)
NJ31,75%
13 - 39WA17,08%WA7,18%WA5,58%MD15,99%HI11,40%PA2,32%13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%
)
MD30,94%
14 - 38MI16,44%NJ6,68%MI5,13%DE15,25%MO10,15%MD2,91%14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37OR16,35%OR4,16%ME5,11%WV14,75%OR9,95%VT3,52%15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36NJ15,53%MN3,48%PA4,17%MI13,21%PA9,02%CA3,57%16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35NM15,13%MI3,42%MN2,40%CA12,89%NM8,56%MO3,98%17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34WI13,90%PA2,50%OR0,44%WA12,54%ME8,33%NM4,96%18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%
)
OR27,75%
19 - 33NV12,49%NH1,37%IA0,31%LA12,07%DE8,20%CT5,10%19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32PA10,31%WI0,38%WI0,22%IA10,34%MI7,40%MT5,87%20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MN10,24%IA0,67%NM0,06%WI10,33%CT6,43%SD6,34%21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
22 -30NH9,61%NM0,79%FL0,01%NH9,95%IA6,01%CO7,78%22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
23 - 29IA9,53%OH2,11%NH1,27%PA9,20%TN4,65%MI7,90%23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
24 - 28CO8,95%NV2,59%MO3,34%OR8,09%LA4,61%LA10,21%24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
25 - 27VA6,30%CO4,67%OH3,51%NM7,33%WI4,35%OH10,85%25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
26 - 26OH4,58%FL5,01%NV3,55%OH6,36%CO4,26%ME11,45%26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
27 - 25FL2,81%MO7,20%TN3,86%MO6,30%KY3,21%KY11,64%27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%
)
NM18,98%
28 - 24IN1,03%VA8,20%AR5,44%FL5,70%NV2,63%DE12,40%28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%
29 - 23NC0,33%AR9,76%AZ6,28%TN2,41%MT2,51%TX12,60%29 - 23AL22,26%WA12,34%VA1,34%NV27,36%KY6,14%MT18,38%




Links


Helpful Info Links
Helpful Election Links
HI Population 2008: 1,288,198
HI has a larger population than the state of Wyoming.
HI Population Density: 73.0 persons per sq Km.
Electoral Vote Density: 322,050 persons per EV.
-----


Electoral Development (electors through history): 3 (1960), 4 EV (1964-present).

Hawaiì is the 2nd most liberal state and the 2nd least conservative (50th) state, with a Democratic winning margin of +45.26% and having voted 38.00% more Democratic than the national average in 2008. 

Hawaiì was the 11th most liberal state and the 41st most conservative state in 2004, with a Democratic winning margin of +8.74% and having voted 11.20% more Democratic than the national average in that year. That jump from 2004 to 2008 is a large and uncommon jump in the partisan rankings.

Hawaiì was the 5th most liberal state and the 47th most conservative state in 2000, with a Democratic winning margin of +18.33% and having voted 17.81% more Democratic than the national average in that year.

Hawaiì, the "Aloha State", which first voted in the 1960 elections, has been up to this point in time a demonstrably Democratic state, having only gone Republican for Nixon and Reagan’s re-elections, respectively. In my 2007 partisan rankings at blogspot.com, I listed HI as trending REPUBLICAN because statistically, it went for Kerry with half of the margin it went for Gore in 2000. However, in terms of actual winning percentage, Kerry’s win of 54.01% was only 1.78% less than Gore’s 55.79%. It went by a smaller margin in 2004 as there was a third party (Nader) on the ballot in 2000 but not in 2004.


Notable is the massive increase in the Partisan Value from 2008: 
+38.00% over the national margin. We see from the table above that for three of the last six cycles, the Partisan Value was in the 16%-17% range (1988, 1996, 2000). The +38.00% value is larger than LBJ's +34.94% Partisan Value from the landslide of 1964 over 1960, but smaller than Richard Nixon's +46.08% Partisan Value from 1972 over 1968, but look at what massive popular vote percentage margins those were: LBJ +22.58% nationally, Nixon +23.15% nationally. Compare that to Obama's +7.26% national margin. This makes the Partisan Value the second largest in the history of the state and the largest in a race under +10% nationally for the winner.

In 2007 I also wrote: 
"Should Hawaii go for the Democratic candidate by a wider margin than in 2004 and with a higher overall % win and then again in 2012, then this state will be considered officially as trending DEMOCRAT.Should the winning margin for a Democrat in 2008 be smaller than that for Kerry in 2004, then the REPUBLICAN trend would continue. It is important to not mistake trend for prediction in the coming election." 
With Barack Obama's near historic percentage and margin in HI, it is very safely in the Democratic column and trending strongly Democratic - for now.

HI Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
Winning margin
GOP
1972
Nixon
62.48%
+24.96%
DEM
1964
Johnson
78.76%
+57.52%
IND
1992
Perot
14.22%
Best IND showing
---------------------




All-time "squeaker"
1960
Kennedy
50.03%
+0.06+ 

In Hawaiì, The Governor, the Lt. Governor, both Senators and both US-Representatives are Democrats. The Hawaiì State Legislature has a Democratic hypermajority.

Facit: Hawaiì is a “firewall” Democratic state. If a sitting Republican President in a time of war (Bush 43, 2004) could not flip this state in a re-election campaign (ala Nixon, Reagan), then there is no real possibility for the GOP to flip this state in 2012, which is also the incumbent Democratic President's birth state.

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