27 November 2011

Rank 17 / 35: New Mexico

New Mexico




Year
Rank.
Winning %
% Margin
% Margin over National
2008
17 / 35
56.91%
+15.13%
+7.87%
2004
22 / 30
49.84%
+0.79%
-1.67%
2000
21 / 31
47.91%
+0.06%
-0.46%

Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.
Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.

New Mexico margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM+4.22%

The partisan rankings for Ranking 17 (New Mexico) from 2008 backwards inhistory to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow):




Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
16 - 36NJ15,53%MN3,48%PA4,17%MI13,21%PA9,02%CA3,57%16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35NM15,13%MI3,42%MN2,40%CA12,89%NM8,56%MO3,98%17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34WI13,90%PA2,50%OR0,44%WA12,54%ME8,33%NM4,96%18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%OR27,75%
19 - 33NV12,49%NH1,37%IA0,31%LA12,07%DE8,20%CT5,10%19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32PA10,31%WI0,38%WI0,22%IA10,34%MI7,40%MT5,87%20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MN10,24%IA0,67%NM0,06%WI10,33%CT6,43%SD6,34%21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
22 -30NH9,61%NM0,79%FL0,01%NH9,95%IA6,01%CO7,78%22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
23 - 29IA9,53%OH2,11%NH1,27%PA9,20%TN4,65%MI7,90%23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
24 - 28CO8,95%NV2,59%MO3,34%OR8,09%LA4,61%LA10,21%24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
25 - 27VA6,30%CO4,67%OH3,51%NM7,33%WI4,35%OH10,85%25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
26 - 26OH4,58%FL5,01%NV3,55%OH6,36%CO4,26%ME11,45%26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
27 - 25FL2,81%MO7,20%TN3,86%MO6,30%KY3,21%KY11,64%27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%NM18,98%
28 - 24IN1,03%VA8,20%AR5,44%FL5,70%NV2,63%DE12,40%28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%
29 - 23NC0,33%AR9,76%AZ6,28%TN2,41%MT2,51%TX12,60%29 - 23AL22,26%WA12,34%VA1,34%NV27,36%KY6,14%MT18,38%
30 - 22MO0,13%AZ10,47%WV6,32%AZ2,22%NJ2,37%ND13,06%30 - 22MT22,30%IA12,70%SD1,48%CO28,01%NV8,16%CA18,32%
31 - 21MT2,38%NC12,43%LA7,68%NV1,02%OH1,83%KS13,23%31 - 21LA22,60%VA12,72%CA1,78%KY28,60%NH8,18%NV17,16%
32 - 20GA5,20%WV12,86%VA8,04%KY0,96%NH1,22%NJ13,64%32 - 20IN23,99%NJ13,42%IL1,97%NH29,12%SC5,79%ND16,09%
33 - 19SD8,41%TN14,27%CO8,36%GA1,17%GA0,59%AR14,18%33 - 19NC24,00%TX13,86%NJ2,16%AZ31,26%MT9,01%WY13,12%
34 - 18AZ8,48%LA14,51%GA11,69%CO1,37%NC0,79%NC16,26%34 - 18MS24,39%CA16,78%NM2,47%IN32,77%CO9,14%AR12,66%
35 - 17ND8,65%GA16,60%NC12,83%VA1,96%FL1,89%TN16,34%35 - 17VA25,19%FL17,02%WA3,88%TX32,96%VT9,22%IN12,42%
36 - 16SC8,98%SC17,08%AL14,88%MT2,88%AZ1,95%OK16,65%36 - 16SD26,47%NM18,18%NV4,36%LA36,97%FL9,60%NC12,30%
37 - 15TX11,76%MS19,69%KY15,13%SD3,46%TX3,48%AL19,30%37 - 15TX27,50%IN18,35%CT5,17%VA37,72%TN3,83%OK11,49%
38 - 14WV13,09%KY19,86%IN15,63%NC4,69%SD3,52%IN20,16%38 - 14SC27,99%CO24,00%MI5,39%TN37,95%NC8,25%SD11,22%
39 - 13MS13,17%MT20,50%SC15,93%TX4,93%VA4,37%GA20,25%39 - 13CO28,32%MT24,39%ND5,85%AR38,11%VA10,87%TN11,01%
40 - 12KS14,92%IN20,68%MS16,91%MS5,13%KS5,14%VA20,50%40 - 12FL30,66%KS24,56%MT7,44%KS38,15%SD11,31%UT9,73%
41 - 11NE14,93%SD21,47%KS20,80%IN5,58%WY5,60%MS20,82%41 - 11ND31,04%OK25,53%KS7,55%ID38,20%NM12,10%KS9,03%


Trend: STRONG DEMOCRATIC


NM WIKI
NM Census Information
NM Census Profile map

Complete NM electoral raw data (Presidential)


NM Electoral Development (electors through history): 
3 (1912-1940), 4 (1944-1980), 5EV (1984-present). 


The population of NM was 1,984,356 in 2008.
Population Density: 6.3 persons per square Km.
Electoral Vote Density: 396,871 persons per EV.


New Mexico is the 17th most liberal state and the 35th most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +15.13% and having voted 7.87% moreDemocratic than the national margin in 2008. New Mexico is one of the 9.25 Democratic „pick-up“ states from 2008, meaning, it shifted fromthe Republican column to the Democratic column. It was the 30th most conservative state in 2004, with a Republican winning margin of +0.79% and having voted 1.67% lessRepublican than the national margin in that year.New Mexico was one of the two Republican „pick-up“ states in 2004It was the 21st most liberal state in 2000, with a Democratic winning margin of +0.06% and having voted 0.46% less Democratic than the national margin in that year. 

From 1904-2008, New Mexico went for the GOP 
12 times, for the DEMS 13 times.
Since 1948 New Mexico went for the GOP 9times, for the DEMS 7 times.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I have already done an 
extensive county-by-county analysis of New Mexico in 2009, in three parts plus supplemental data. In the analysis are:

-recent electoral statistics
-extensive background information
-county-for-county analysis (percentage, percentage margin, shift, pick-ups, tipping-point counties)
-maps
-quick mega-county study
-Conclusion.

In the supplemental material: an excel table of all the raw data, a 12 county special 48-year voting history analysis (also excel table), extra demographic data.
Go to these links to read the extensive report:



NEW MEXICO 2008 – County by County
The West: extremes in geography, demographics and ideology













Supplemental to New Mexico: DEMOGRAPHIC and ECONOMIC profile of New Mexico (p.4,hispanic population) 




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Based on its voting record, from 1912-1964, NM was a perfect bellwether state, having picked the winner each of the first 14 cycles since entering the Electoral College in 1912. Since 1968, NM is not really a bellwether state, having missed the winner in the electoral college in 3 of the last 11cycles, or 40 years (2000, 1976, 1968) and having missed the winner in 2 of the last 11 cycles in the popular vote (1976, 1968).




NM Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
Notes
GOP
1972
Nixon
61.05%

DEM
1964
Johnson
59.22%

IND
1912
Roosevelt, T.
16.90%

---------------------


Winning Margin %

All-time “squeaker”
2000
Gore
+0.06%


In New Mexico, as of 2010, the Governor and Lt. Governor are Republicans, both Senators are Democratic. The US House delegation from NM is comprised of 2 Democrats and 1 Republican. In the New Mexico Legislature, the Democratic Party has a hypermajority in the State Senate and a lean majority in the State House.

Facit: New Mexico is a solid Democratic state and should not be in play in 2012.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.