27 November 2011

Rank 16 / 36: New Jersey

New Jersey



Year
Rank.
Winning %
% Margin
% Margin over National
2008
16 / 36
57.14%
+15.53%
+8.27%
2004
14 / 38
52.92%
+6.68%
+9.14%
2000
08 / 44
56.13%
+15.83%
+15.31%







NJ county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)


New Jersey margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM+7.44%

The partisan rankings for Ranking 16 (New Jersey) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow):

Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964
IL25,11%IL10,34%NJ15,83%CT18,14%MD14,18%OR4,67%08 – 44NY8,01%MA0,15%TN13,00%CA13,46%WV8,82%CT35,72%
DE24,98%CA9,95%DE13,06%NJ17,86%CA13,39%NY4,10%09 – 43WI9,18%TN0,29%MN12,87%MI14,39%MI6,73%MI33,61%
CA24,03%ME9,00%IL12,01%IL17,51%WV13,02%WI3,62%10 – 42WV10,51%AR0,61%RI11,28%IA17,13%NY5,46%VT32,61%
CT22,37%HI8,74%CA11,80%AR16,94%MN11,63%WA1,59%11 – 41HI11,28%AL1,30%NC11,05%NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
ME17,32%DE7,59%VT9,94%MN16,14%WA11,44%IL2,08%12 – 40OR12,17%MS1,32%KY7,19%WA18,28%LA20.11%NJ31,75%
WA17,08%WA7,18%WA5,58%MD15,99%HI11,40%PA2,32%13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%MD30,94%
MI16,44%NJ6,68%MI5,13%DE15,25%MO10,15%MD2,91%14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
OR16,35%OR4,16%ME5,11%WV14,75%OR9,95%VT3,52%15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
NJ15,53%MN3,48%PA4,17%MI13,21%PA9,02%CA3,57%16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
NM15,13%MI3,42%MN2,40%CA12,89%NM8,56%MO3,98%17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
WI13,90%PA2,50%OR0,44%WA12,54%ME8,33%NM4,96%18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%OR27,75%
NV12,49%NH1,37%IA0,31%LA12,07%DE8,20%CT5,10%19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
PA10,31%WI0,38%WI0,22%IA10,34%MI7,40%MT5,87%20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
MN10,24%IA0,67%NM0,06%WI10,33%CT6,43%SD6,34%21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
NH9,61%NM0,79%FL0,01%NH9,95%IA6,01%CO7,78%22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
IA9,53%OH2,11%NH1,27%PA9,20%TN4,65%MI7,90%23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
CO8,95%NV2,59%MO3,34%OR8,09%LA4,61%LA10,21%24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
VA6,30%CO4,67%OH3,51%NM7,33%WI4,35%OH10,85%25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
OH4,58%FL5,01%NV3,55%OH6,36%CO4,26%ME11,45%26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
FL2,81%MO7,20%TN3,86%MO6,30%KY3,21%KY11,64%27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%NM18,98%
IN1,03%VA8,20%AR5,44%FL5,70%NV2,63%DE12,40%28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%
NC0,33%AR9,76%AZ6,28%TN2,41%MT2,51%TX12,60%29 - 23AL22,26%WA12,34%VA1,34%NV27,36%KY6,14%MT18,38%
MO0,13%AZ10,47%WV6,32%AZ2,22%NJ2,37%ND13,06%30 - 22MT22,30%IA12,70%SD1,48%CO28,01%NV8,16%CA18,32%
MT2,38%NC12,43%LA7,68%NV1,02%OH1,83%KS13,23%31 - 21LA22,60%VA12,72%CA1,78%KY28,60%NH8,18%NV17,16%
GA5,20%WV12,86%VA8,04%KY0,96%NH1,22%NJ13,64%32 - 20IN23,99%NJ13,42%IL1,97%NH29,12%SC5,79%ND16,09%
SD8,41%TN14,27%CO8,36%GA1,17%GA0,59%AR14,18%33 - 19NC24,00%TX13,86%NJ2,16%AZ31,26%MT9,01%WY13,12%

Trend: STEADY DEMOCRATIC

NJ WIKI
NJ Census Information
NJ Census Profile map


Complete NJ electoral raw data (Presidential)


NJ Electoral Development (electors through history): 6 (1789) 7 (1792-1800), 8 (1804-1840), 7 (1844-1868), 9 (1872-1888), 10 (1892-1900), 12 (1904-1908), 14 (1912-1928), 16 (1932-1960), 17 (1964-1980), 15 (1992-2008), 14EV (2012- ). 


The population of NJ was 8,682,661 in 2008.
Population Density: 452.0 persons per square Km.
Electoral Vote Density: 578,844 persons per EV.

New Jersey is the 16th most liberal state and the 36th most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +15.53% and having voted 8.27% moreDemocratic than the national margin in 2008. It was the 14th most liberal state in 2004, with a Democratic winning margin of +6.68% and having voted 9.14% more Democratic than the national margin in that year. It was the 8th most liberal state in 2000, with a Democratic winning margin of +15.83% and having voted 15.31%moreDemocratic than the national margin in that year. 

From 1904-2008, New Jersey went for the GOP 
15 times, for the DEMS 12 times.
Since1948 New Jersey went for the GOP 9 times, for the DEMS 7 times.

New Jersey, one of the 13 founding colonies, was a predominantly Democratic state from 1856-1892, excepting Ulysses S. Grant's re-election in 1872. But the state was known for lean single-digit winning margins for both side. In 1896, William McKinley (R) easily took the Garden State with a 
+23.66% landslide margin.The state remained GOP turf until the turbulent election of 1912, when the Professor from New Jersey, Woodrow Wilson, carried his home state, albeit by a narrow margin of +7.60%. In 1916, Wilson was unable to retain his home state: Charles Hughes (R) from neighboring New York recaptured the state for the GOP and it remained in the GOP column until FDR. Roosevelt won New Jersey all four times, but only in 1936 (his first re-election) did he capture the state with a double-digit margin. In 1932, 1940 and 1944, it was a tight race in New Jersey, in spite of a sizeable national margin each time. In 1948, another New Yorker, Thomas Dewey, flipped the state for the GOP. New Jersey loved Ike in the 1950s and in 1956, Ike set the Republican state margin record of +30.31%, a margin that would be broken by LBJ 8 years later (1964: Johnson+31.75%). Kennedy also took the state in 1960, in the closest „squeaker“ election in NJ history: Kennedy +0.80%, making for a margin shift of +32.55% over Ike's statistic from 1956. From 1968-1988, New Jersey was considered a Republican state, going 6 times in a row for the GOP candidate, with varying margins. As of 1992, it has entered and stayed in the Democratic column. Obama's 2008 landslide in New Jersey was the highest winning percentage for a Democrat since 1964.


Like 
RI and MI, New Jersey has tended to be generous to incumbents, regardless whether they won or lost. Explanation below the chart:

President - NJ
Year / Margin
Year / Margin
State Shift
National Shift:
State minus Nat'l
FDR
1932 / +1.90
1936 / +20.02
+18.12
+6.49
+11.63
FDR
1936 / +20.02
1940 / +3.62
-16.40
-14.30
-1.80
FDR
1940 / +3.62
1944 / +1.35
-2.27
-2.46
+0.19
Eisenhower
1952 / +14.83
1956 / +30.46
+15.63
+4.55
+11.08
Nixon
1968 / +2.13
1972 / +24.80
+22.67
+22.98
-0.31
Carter
1976 / -2.16
1980 / -13.42
-11.26
-11.80
-0.54
Reagan
1980 / +13.42
1984 / +20.89
+7.47
+8.48
-1.01
Bush 41
1988 / +13.64
1992 / -2.37
-16.01
-13.29
-2.72
Clinton
1992 / +2.37
1996 / +17.86
+15.49
+2.96
+12.53
Bush 43
2000 / -15.83
2004 / -6.68
+9.15
+2.98
+6.17
Obama
2008 / +27.81
2012 / ???
???
???
???



To explain this gobbledygook, the most important value to understand is the “State minus Nation” value, in the right-most column, shaded in grey. If it is a positive number, then this is good for that incumbent.
Example 1: Eisenhower,1956 over 1952. 

In 1952, Eisenhower won OR with a 
+14.83%margin.In 1956, against exactly the same Democratic candidate as in 1952 (Adlai E. Stevenson), Eisehower's margin soared to +30.46, the GOP record in this state. The shift of these two numbers is +15.63, which is +11.08% over the national margin shift 1956 over 1952. So, NJ LOVED IKE.

Example 2: Bill Clinton.

In 1992, in a three-man race against incumbent George. W. Bush, Sr. (R) and Ross Perot (I), Clinton narrowly won NJ with
+2.37%,also BELOW his national margin in 1992. In 1996, he easily won NJ, once again against Ross Perot (I) and, this time, Bob Dole (R),but with a landslide +17.86%, a substantial margin INCREASE of 15.49 points.Since his national margin actually improved by +2.96% over 1992, then his shift was 12.53 points ABOVE the national shift.

The positive „State minus Nat'l“ values tend to be high, the negative values tend to be low in NJ. This undergirds the argument that Obama has, for all intents and purposes, a „lock“ on New Jersey.That does not mean that the other side won't try: the Bush campaign saw possibilities in both New Jersey and in Hawaii in 2004 and tried to flip both states, unsuccessfully. So, if a sitting Republican president in a time of war was unable to flip New Jersey, it is unlikely that a Republican challenger to President Obama can do it, unless his name is Mitt Romney. Because of his East Coast ties, Romney 
could make NJ competitive, but polling has not shown this yet.

Based on its voting record, NJ is not a bellwether state, having missed the winner in 5 of the 26 cycles, or 100 years, and in more recent history, NJ has missed the winner in 3 of the last 13 cycles, going back to 1960. It has missed the winner from both parties pretty much equally.


NJ Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
Notes
GOP
1920
Harding
67.65%

DEM
1964
Johnson
65.61%

IND
1912
Roosevelt, T.
20.53%

---------------------


Winning Margin %

All-time “squeaker”
1960
Kennedy
+0.80%


In New Jersey, the Governor and Lt. Governor are Republicans, both Senators are Democrats. The US House delegation from NJ is comprised of 7 Democrats and 6 Republicans. In the New Jersey Legislature, the Democratic Party has a strong 60 to 40 majority in both houses.

Facit: New Jersey is a solid Democratic state and has become a reliable elementin the Democratic electoral column. Pundits often call the Garden State „Fool's Gold“ for the GOP, but election of Chris Christie as Governor in 2010 may have changed that perspective somewhat. A Mitt Romney candidacy could possibly put the state in play. Any other GOP candidate would not.

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