27 November 2011

Rank 11 / 41: Connecticut

Connecticut



Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:

Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
11 / 41
60.59%
+22.37%
+15.11%
+12.00%
+9.72%
+2.28
2004
07 / 45
54.31%
+10.37%
+12.83%
-7.10%
+2.98%
+4.12
2000
06 / 46
55.91%
+17.47%
+16.95%
-0.67%
+8.00%
+7.33
1996
08 / 44
52.83%
+18.14%
+9.62%
+11.71%
+2.96%
+8.75
1992
21 31
42.21%
+6.43%
+0.87%
+11.53%
+13.29%
+1.76
1988
19 / 33
51.98%
+5.10%
-2.63%
-16.80%
-10.49%
+6.31

blue shading = DEM pick-up
Connecticut margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM+11.61%

Trend: STRONG DEMOCRATIC


(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)

The partisan rankings for Ranking 11 (Connecticut) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow):


Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
01 – 51DC85,92%DC79,84%DC76,20%DC75,85%DC75,55%DC68,34%01 – 51DC71,66%DC61,49%DC65,12%DC56,54%DC63,64%DC71,00%
02 – 50HI45,26%MA25,16%RI29,08%MA33,39%MA18,52%RI11,71%02 – 50MN0,18%GA14,81%GA33,78%MA8,97%RI32,25%RI61,74%
03 – 49VT37,01%RI20,75%MA27,30%RI32,89%RI18,02%IA10,22%03 – 49MA2,79%RI10,47%AR30,01%MN5,51%MA30,12%HI57,52%
04 – 48RI27,81%VT20,14%NY24,98%NY28,86%AR17,72%HI9,52%04 – 48RI3,65%WV4,51%WV16,14%RI6,19%HI21,12%MA52,74%
05 – 47NY26,86%NY18,29%HI18,33%HI25,29%NY15,85%MA7,85%05 – 47MD5,49%MN3,94%MA15,67%SD8,63%MN12,53%ME37,68%
06 – 46MA25,81%MD12,98%CT17,47%VT22,26%VT15,70%MN7,02%06 – 46PA7,35%MD2,96%AL13,11%WI9,67%ME12,23%NY37,25%
07 – 45MD25,44%CT10,37%MD16,39%ME20,86%IL14,24%WV4,74%07 – 45IA7,39%HI1,90%SC13,04%OR10,12%MS40.44%WV35,87%
08 – 44IL25,11%IL10,34%NJ15,83%CT18,14%MD14,18%OR4,67%08 – 44NY8,01%MA0,15%TN13,00%CA13,46%WV8,82%CT35,72%
09 – 43DE24,98%CA9,95%DE13,06%NJ17,86%CA13,39%NY4,10%09 – 43WI9,18%TN0,29%MN12,87%MI14,39%MI6,73%MI33,61%
10 – 42CA24,03%ME9,00%IL12,01%IL17,51%WV13,02%WI3,62%10 – 42WV10,51%AR0,61%RI11,28%IA17,13%NY5,46%VT32,61%
11 – 41CT22,37%HI8,74%CA11,80%AR16,94%MN11,63%WA1,59%11 – 41HI11,28%AL1,30%NC11,05%NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
12 – 40ME17,32%DE7,59%VT9,94%MN16,14%WA11,44%IL2,08%12 – 40OR12,17%MS1,32%KY7,19%WA18,28%LA20.11%NJ31,75%
13 - 39WA17,08%WA7,18%WA5,58%MD15,99%HI11,40%PA2,32%13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%MD30,94%
14 - 38MI16,44%NJ6,68%MI5,13%DE15,25%MO10,15%MD2,91%14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37OR16,35%OR4,16%ME5,11%WV14,75%OR9,95%VT3,52%15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36NJ15,53%MN3,48%PA4,17%MI13,21%PA9,02%CA3,57%16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35NM15,13%MI3,42%MN2,40%CA12,89%NM8,56%MO3,98%17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34WI13,90%PA2,50%OR0,44%WA12,54%ME8,33%NM4,96%18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%OR27,75%
19 - 33NV12,49%NH1,37%IA0,31%LA12,07%DE8,20%CT5,10%19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32PA10,31%WI0,38%WI0,22%IA10,34%MI7,40%MT5,87%20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MN10,24%IA0,67%NM0,06%WI10,33%CT6,43%SD6,34%21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
22 -30NH9,61%NM0,79%FL0,01%NH9,95%IA6,01%CO7,78%22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
23 - 29IA9,53%OH2,11%NH1,27%PA9,20%TN4,65%MI7,90%23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
24 - 28CO8,95%NV2,59%MO3,34%OR8,09%LA4,61%LA10,21%24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
25 - 27VA6,30%CO4,67%OH3,51%NM7,33%WI4,35%OH10,85%25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
26 - 26OH4,58%FL5,01%NV3,55%OH6,36%CO4,26%ME11,45%26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
27 - 25FL2,81%MO7,20%TN3,86%MO6,30%KY3,21%KY11,64%27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%NM18,98%
28 - 24IN1,03%VA8,20%AR5,44%FL5,70%NV2,63%DE12,40%28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%
29 - 23NC0,33%AR9,76%AZ6,28%TN2,41%MT2,51%TX12,60%29 - 23AL22,26%WA12,34%VA1,34%NV27,36%KY6,14%MT18,38%
30 - 22MO0,13%AZ10,47%WV6,32%AZ2,22%NJ2,37%ND13,06%30 - 22MT22,30%IA12,70%SD1,48%CO28,01%NV8,16%CA18,32%
31 - 21MT2,38%NC12,43%LA7,68%NV1,02%OH1,83%KS13,23%31 - 21LA22,60%VA12,72%CA1,78%KY28,60%NH8,18%NV17,16%
32 - 20GA5,20%WV12,86%VA8,04%KY0,96%NH1,22%NJ13,64%32 - 20IN23,99%NJ13,42%IL1,97%NH29,12%SC5,79%ND16,09%
33 - 19SD8,41%TN14,27%CO8,36%GA1,17%GA0,59%AR14,18%33 - 19NC24,00%TX13,86%NJ2,16%AZ31,26%MT9,01%WY13,12%
34 - 18AZ8,48%LA14,51%GA11,69%CO1,37%NC0,79%NC16,26%34 - 18MS24,39%CA16,78%NM2,47%IN32,77%CO9,14%AR12,66%
35 - 17ND8,65%GA16,60%NC12,83%VA1,96%FL1,89%TN16,34%35 - 17VA25,19%FL17,02%WA3,88%TX32,96%VT9,22%IN12,42%
36 - 16SC8,98%SC17,08%AL14,88%MT2,88%AZ1,95%OK16,65%36 - 16SD26,47%NM18,18%NV4,36%LA36,97%FL9,60%NC12,30%
37 - 15TX11,76%MS19,69%KY15,13%SD3,46%TX3,48%AL19,30%37 - 15TX27,50%IN18,35%CT5,17%VA37,72%TN3,83%OK11,49%



Links



Helpful Info Links Helpful Election Links
CT county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet 
CT VR
CT Population 2008: 3,501,252 CT Elections - current
CT Population Density: 279.0 persons per sq Km.
CT election results archive (1922-present)
Electoral Vote Density: 500,179 persons per EV. ---


CT Electoral Development (electors through history): 7 (1789), 9 (1792-1820), 8 (1824-1900), 7 (1904-1928), 8 (1932-2000), 7 EV (2004-present)


Connecticut is the 11th most liberal state and the 41st most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +22.37% and having voted 15.11% more Democratic than the national margin in 2008. 

Connecticut was the 7th most liberal state and the 45th most conservative state in 2004, with a Democratic winning margin of +10.37% and having voted 12.83% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.

Connecticut was the 6th most liberal state and the 46th most conservative state in 2000, with a Democratic winning margin of +17.47% and having voted 16.95% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.

From 1904-2008, CT went for the GOP 15 times, for the DEMS 12 times.
Since 1948 DE went for the GOP 
8 times, for the DEMS 8 times. (1:1 ratio)


Summary

Connecticut, one of the 13 founding colonies, was admitted as the 5 th state to the Union on January 9, 1788. It is the 48th largest state in the Union by area, or better put, the 3rd smallest state, but the 29th most populous state in the Union (sandwiched between Oklahoma and Iowa in the state population rankings) and therefore has a high population density.

It should be noted that in the era before the entrance of today's GOP onto the national stage in 1856, that CT voted democratic only twice in 8 cycles from 1824-1852: it voted for Martin Van Buren (D) in 1836 by a razor-thin +1.30% margin and again for Franklin Pierce (D) in 1852 by +4.01%. The other 6 cycles we wins by the "other" parties that were forerunners to the GOP: "The National Republican" Party and the "Whig Party". Also interesting to note is that CT turned out an incumbent president as early as 1840: it went for Van Buren against Harrison in 1836, but then ousted Van Buren and went for Harrison in 1940. This is an important detail as CT has more often than not turned out incumbents who also lost their re-elections at the national level.

As of the Civil War, Connecticut was a nominally Republican state, but in the famous electoral backfire of 1876, it went for Democratic candidate Tilden. It also went for Democrat Grover Cleveland for all three of his presidential runs (1884, 1888,1892). With the exception of the 4-way split in 1860, which gave Lincoln a massive +32.35% margin, CT gave candidates predominantly low single digit margin wins between 1856-1992. For eight cycles in a row, from 1864-1892, the win was in the low-single digits:

1864, Lincoln +2.76% margin.
1868, Grant +2.98% margin.
1872, Grant +4.81% margin.
1876, Tilden +2.37% margin.
1880, Garfield +2.00% margin
1884, Cleveland +0.94% margin.
1888, Cleveland +0.22% margin.
1892, Cleveland +3.26% margin.


In other words, CT was the „swing state“ of it's time. And from 1860-1912, it was a pretty good bellwether, having selected the national winner in every election except 1876 - and that election was an electoral backfire where Samuel Tilden (D) actually won in the national popular vote by +3.00%.


CT ceased to be a swing state with William McKinley in 1896, who swept the state with a +30.70% margin, and CT remained Republican landslide territory for 4 cycles, up to 1912, all with respectable landslide margins.

In 1912, Woodrow Wilson carried the Nutmeg state by a narrow +3.28% margin and lost it by a similar narrow margin in 1916 to Charles Hughes (R) +3.15%, where it thenremained in GOP hands for 5 cycles, including FDR's first election in 1932. PA and five other Northeastern states (CT, DE, VT, NH and ME) were the only six states to remain true to Hoover in his historic 1932 landslide defeat to FDR. Hoover retained CT with a lean +1.14% margin in 1932. 


 Let's pause and consider the evidence for massive electoral shift in the USA since 1932: four of those six states are now absolute core Democratic states and most likely to go for the Democrat even in the case of a landslide defeat at the hands of a Republican: DE, CT, VT and ME.

As of 1936, CT moved into the Democratic column and was the first ever double-digit margin for a Democratic Presidential candidate in the state's history: FDR +14.98%. But already in 1940, CT became single-digit territory again: FDR +7.14% in 1940, +5.36% in 1944. Truman lost the state to Dewey in 1948 by a thin +1.68% margin.

The state loved IKE in the 1950s: it gave Eisenhower an +11.79% margin win in 1952, which then grew to a massive +27.46% margin in 1956 and as 1952 we see a fascinating phenomenon in this state:

1948-1956: 3 cycles GOP (Dewey, Eisenhower)
1960-1968: 3 cycles DEM (Kennedy, Johnson, Humphrey)
1972-1988: 5 cycles GOP (Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush 41)
1992-2008: 5 cycles DEM (Clinton, Gore, Kerry, Obama)

Johnson's 1964 landslide of 67.81% and a +35.72% winning margin is the all-time record holder for all parties in Connecticut.

Since the beginning of the Atomic Age, 7 of 16 cycles since 1848 have been single digit wins in Connecticut (4 GOP, 3 DEM).

If Obama keeps CT in the Democratic column in 2012 - and the statistical probability is extremely high that he will - then with 6 DEM wins in a row this would be the longest consecutive winning streak for any party in CT's history. It is already the longest consecutive Democratic winning streak and also the longest set of Democratic double-digit wins in this state: five in a row.

CT and One-Term Presidents:

CT has turned-out Republican incumbents who lost their re-election campaigns:

Taft +23.50% in 1908, lost to Wilson by 3.28% in 1912.
Bush 41 +5.10% in 1988, lost to Clinton by 6.43% in 1992.
CT did not turn out Hoover in 1932, but it was razor-thin: Hoover +1.14%.

CT has turned out one Democratic incumbent who also lost his re-election campaign, but this was pre-GOP:

Van Buren +1.30% in 1836, lost to Harrison by 11.11% in 1840.

CT has turned out another Democratic incumbent, but he won re-election nationally:

Wilson +3.28% in 1912, lost to Hughes by 3.15% in 1916.

CT never went for Carter, so he is not in this statistic.

This state is in no way a bellwether state, having missed the winner in 7 of the last 26 cycles (2004, 2000, 1976, 1968, 1948, 1932 and 1916). Furthermore, the winning margins in CT are also rarely representative of the national margin. Only in 1980, 1952 and 1904 were the margins in CT very close to the national margin.

Obama's landslide in CT was the last landslide where he got over 60% of the PV and had a crushing percentage margin of more than 20%. That makes 11 states with +20% or more margins, the best showing for a Democrat since 1964 and again since 1936. His +22.37% margin in CT is indeed the largest margin of any candidate here since 1964 and you have to go back to 1956 to find a Republican who did better in the Constitution State.

CT - Superlatives YEAR Candidate Winning % % Margin
GOP
1956
1924
Eisenhower
Coolidge
63.72%
61.54%
+27.46%
+34.01%
DEM
1964
Johnson
67.81%
+35.72%
IND
1992
Perot
21.58%
Best IND showing
---------------------



All-time “squeaker”
1888
Cleveland
48.66%
+0.22%


In Connecticut, the Governor, Lt. Governor, both Senators and all 5 US House Representatives are Democrats. In the Connecticut General Assembly, there is a strong Democratic majority in the State Senate and a Democratic hypermajority in the State House. 
Facit: 
Connecticut is a "firewall" Democratic state at the presidential level.

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