18 November 2011

Rank 1 / 51: D.C.


D.C.



Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:


Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
1 / 51
92.46%
+85.92%
+78.66%
+6.08%
+9.72%
+3.64
2004
1 / 51
89.18%
+79.84%
+82.30%
+3.34%
+2.98%
+6.32
2000
1 / 51
85.16%
+76.20%
+75.68%
+0.35%
+8.00%
+8.35
1996
1 / 51
85.19%
+75.85%
+67.33%
+0.30%
+2.96%
+2.66
1992
1 / 51
84.64%
+75.55%
+69.99%
+7.21%
+13.29%
+6.08
1988
1 / 51
82.65%
+68.34%
+76.07%
-3.32%
-10.49%
+7.17


DC Margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles):  DEM+76.95%

If you note, the partisan value for John Kerry for DC in 2004 is HIGHER than for Barack Obama in 2008, despite winning 92.46% of the vote in DC. To remind: the partisan value is the difference between the winning margin for that state and the nation margin for that same party in that year. Barack Obama won the GE in 2008 with the +7.26% margin. John Kerry LOST the GE in 2004 with a -2.46% margin.

So, here is how the math looks, longhand:
2008: 85.92 (margin) -7.26 (national margin) = 78.66%.
2004: 78.94 (margin) - (-2.46) (national margin) = 82.30%.


Of course, for phenomenal landslides of this sort, it is all sort of sematics, but that is the reason why the numbers look as they do. And when a candidate is close to 93% of the PV in a state, there is not much more room to grow.



Since 1988, the percentage margins in DC has continually increased, from +68.34% to +85.92%. The partisan values have varied but have been mostly in the +70% over the national average range. There have been three GOP TREND values, but in a “state” where the Democratic Party has such an overwhelming majority, a slight GOP trend value is statistically correct but realistically meaningless. The same applies for states like WY and UT on the Republican side of the spectrum.


Trend: STRONG DEMOCRATIC


Here the partisan rankings for Rankings 1 and 2 (DC and Hawaii) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 (highlighted in yellow, you will need to scroll to the right to see 1984 backwards to 1964):


Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
01 – 51DC85,92%DC79,84%DC76,20%DC75,85%DC75,55%DC68,34%01 – 51DC71,66%DC61,49%DC65,12%DC56,54%DC63,64%DC71,00%
02 – 50HI45,26%MA25,16%RI29,08%MA33,39%MA18,52%RI11,71%02 – 50MN0,18%GA14,81%GA33,78%MA8,97%RI32,25%RI61,74%
03 – 49VT37,01%RI20,75%MA27,30%RI32,89%RI18,02%IA10,22%03 – 49MA2,79%RI10,47%AR30,01%MN5,51%MA30,12%HI57,52%
04 – 48RI27,81%VT20,14%NY24,98%NY28,86%AR17,72%HI9,52%04 – 48RI3,65%WV4,51%WV16,14%RI6,19%HI21,12%MA52,74%
05 – 47NY26,86%NY18,29%HI18,33%HI25,29%NY15,85%MA7,85%05 – 47MD5,49%MN3,94%MA15,67%SD8,63%MN12,53%ME37,68%
06 – 46MA25,81%MD12,98%CT17,47%VT22,26%VT15,70%MN7,02%06 – 46PA7,35%MD2,96%AL13,11%WI9,67%ME12,23%NY37,25%
07 – 45MD25,44%CT10,37%MD16,39%ME20,86%IL14,24%WV4,74%07 – 45IA7,39%HI1,90%SC13,04%OR10,12%MS40.44%)WV35,87%
08 – 44IL25,11%IL10,34%NJ15,83%CT18,14%MD14,18%OR4,67%08 – 44NY8,01%MA0,15%TN13,00%CA13,46%WV8,82%CT35,72%
09 – 43DE24,98%CA9,95%DE13,06%NJ17,86%CA13,39%NY4,10%09 – 43WI9,18%TN0,29%MN12,87%MI14,39%MI6,73%MI33,61%
10 – 42CA24,03%ME9,00%IL12,01%IL17,51%WV13,02%WI3,62%10 – 42WV10,51%AR0,61%RI11,28%IA17,13%NY5,46%VT32,61%
11 – 41CT22,37%HI8,74%CA11,80%AR16,94%MN11,63%WA1,59%11 – 41HI11,28%AL1,30%NC11,05%NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
12 – 40ME17,32%DE7,59%VT9,94%MN16,14%WA11,44%IL2,08%12 – 40OR12,17%MS1,32%KY7,19%WA18,28%LA20.11%)NJ31,75%
13 - 39WA17,08%WA7,18%WA5,58%MD15,99%HI11,40%PA2,32%13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%)MD30,94%
14 - 38MI16,44%NJ6,68%MI5,13%DE15,25%MO10,15%MD2,91%14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37OR16,35%OR4,16%ME5,11%WV14,75%OR9,95%VT3,52%15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36NJ15,53%MN3,48%PA4,17%MI13,21%PA9,02%CA3,57%16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35NM15,13%MI3,42%MN2,40%CA12,89%NM8,56%MO3,98%17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34WI13,90%PA2,50%OR0,44%WA12,54%ME8,33%NM4,96%18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%)OR27,75%
19 - 33NV12,49%NH1,37%IA0,31%LA12,07%DE8,20%CT5,10%19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32PA10,31%WI0,38%WI0,22%IA10,34%MI7,40%MT5,87%20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MN10,24%IA0,67%NM0,06%WI10,33%CT6,43%SD6,34%21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
22 -30NH9,61%NM0,79%FL0,01%NH9,95%IA6,01%CO7,78%22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
23 - 29IA9,53%OH2,11%NH1,27%PA9,20%TN4,65%MI7,90%23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
24 - 28CO8,95%NV2,59%MO3,34%OR8,09%LA4,61%LA10,21%24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
25 - 27VA6,30%CO4,67%OH3,51%NM7,33%WI4,35%OH10,85%25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
26 - 26OH4,58%FL5,01%NV3,55%OH6,36%CO4,26%ME11,45%26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
27 - 25FL2,81%MO7,20%TN3,86%MO6,30%KY3,21%KY11,64%27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%)NM18,98%
28 - 24IN1,03%VA8,20%AR5,44%FL5,70%NV2,63%DE12,40%28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%
29 - 23NC0,33%AR9,76%AZ6,28%TN2,41%MT2,51%TX12,60%29 - 23AL22,26%WA12,34%VA1,34%NV27,36%KY6,14%MT18,38%


Links

Helpful Info Links
Helpful Election Links
------
D.C. Population 2008: 591,833
D.C. Population Density: 3,722.2 persons per sq Km.
Electoral Vote Density: 197,278 persons per EV.
-----


Electoral Development (electors through history): 3 EV (1964-present)

From 1964-2008, D.C. went for the GOP 0 times, for the DEMS 12 times. It is the only entity in the Union which has not gone for the opposition party at least once; however D.C. is a relatively new phenomenon.

Summary

D.C. (District of Columbia) is the most liberal “state” and the least conservative (51st) “state”, with a democratic winning margin of +85.92% and having voted 78.66% more democratic than the national average in 2008. Barack Obama's massive landslide win in DC is the highest percentage for any candidate since 1944 and of course, the largest margin since the same.

It was also the most liberal “state” and the least conservative (51st) “state” in 2004, with a democratic winning margin of +79.84% and having voted 82.30% more democratic than the national average in that year.

It was also the most liberal “state” and the least conservative (51st) “state” in 2000, with a democratic winning margin of +76.20% and having voted 75.68% more democratic than the national average in that year.



The “District”, as it is often called, is located on the banks of the Potomac river and is bordered by Virginia and Maryland. With the passage of the Twenty-third Amendment to the United States Constitution in 1961, residents of the district became eligible to vote for President of the United States. The district has three electoral votes--the same number as states with the smallest populations, such as Montana, Wyoming, Delaware, Alaska, Vermont, and the two Dakotas.

Citizens of the district have no voting representation in Congress. They are represented in the House of Representatives by a non-voting delegate, Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC At-Large) who sits on committees and participates in debate, but cannot vote. D.C. has no representation at all in the Senate. Attempts to change this situation, including statehood and the proposed District of Columbia Voting Rights Amendment, have been unsuccessful.




D.C. Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
Notes
GOP
---
------
-----
---------
DEM
2004
Obama
92.46%
Highest wining percentage in a state since Mississippi, 1944.
Also winning percentage record for DC, broke Kerry's record from 2004.
IND
1996
Perot
3.53%
Weak IND %
---------------------


Winning Margin %

All-time “squeaker”
1972
McGovern
+56.54%
Is no squeaker!





The non-voting delegate (DC-AL) is democratic. The mayor of DC is democrat and the city council is overwhelmingly democrat (13 of 14 wards, including 4 at large wards).
 
Facit: DC is an unbreakable Democratic bastion. The GOP does not even campaign here. There is no GOP equivalent to DC in terms of statistics.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.