26 August 2011

State Presidential Polling Obama vs. GOP field, up to August 26, 2011

Statewide polling Presidential Match-ups

Obama vs. Republican Field

November 2010 to August 26, 2011


Alaska – GOP



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Pawlenty

other

Hays

06/28/11

--

--

42 / 36

---

--


McCain 2008 margin: +21.54

Bush 2004 margin: +25.55

GOP combined margin average 1960-2004: +15.80


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arizona - GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

Trump

other

Huckabee

PPP

05/03/11

44 / 48

47 / 40

49 / 38

48 / 36

 

46 / 44

PPP

03/02/11

43 / 49

46 / 46

49 / 41

 

---

44 / 48


McCain 2008 margin: +8.48

Bush 2004 margin: +10.47

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +14.60


--------------------------------------------------------------

California- DEM



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

02/03/11

56 / 36

 

58 / 34

62 / 31

48/40

54 / 39



Obama 2008 margin: +24.03

Kerry 2004 margin: +9.95

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.96


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colorado – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Cain

Perry

other

Huckabee

PPP

08/10/11

48 / 41

51 / 39

54 / 38

51 / 35

51 / 38

---

---

PPP

02/08/11

47 / 41

----

55 / 36

 

 

46 / 35

(generic)

53 / 39

(Gingrich)

51 / 42



Obama 2008 margin: +8.95
Bush 2004 margin: +4.67
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.41

----------------------------------------------------------------

Connecticut – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Quinnipiac

06/15/11

 

 

 

 

 

46 / 35

(generic)



Obama 2008 margin: +22.37

Kerry 2004 margin: +10.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.03


---------------------------------------------------------------

Florida – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Perry

Bachmann

Palin

Cain

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

Magellan (R)

08/23/11

39 / 49

39 / 46

42 / 43

---

---

---

---

---

McLaughlin & Assoc. (R)

08/??/11

44 / 45

44 / 39

---

---

---

---

--

---

Quinnipiac

08/04/11

44 / 44

44 / 39

50 / 38

53 / 34

 

---


 

 

Sunshine State

07/12/11

42 / 46

 

--

--

--

--

--

 

PPP

06/24/11

47 / 43

 

49 / 40

52 / 40

48 / 37

--

48 / 40

(Pawlenty)

 

Quinnipiac

05/26/11

--

 

--

--

--

--

44 / 37

 

Suffolk

04/14/11

44 / 43

 

--

52 / 34

 

47 / 36

41 / 28

45 / 30

49 / 34

44 / 41

Sachs / Mason-Dixon

04/11/11

43 / 48

 

--

51 / 39

 

----

48 / 40

44 / 49

Quinnipiac

04/07/11

 

 

--

 

 

 

38 / 41

 

PPP

03/31/11

46 / 44

 

--

52 / 39

 

50 / 42

48 / 45

48 / 42

50 / 43

PPP

12/22/10

46 / 44

 

--

52 / 38

 

47 / 42

48 / 40

49 / 44



Obama 2008 margin: +2.81

Bush 2004 margin: +5.01

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +8.65

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Georgia – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

04/05/11

43 / 46

--

46 / 45

48 / 43

44 / 39

45 / 48

20/20

02/03/11

44 / 50

--

45 / 47

47 / 43

---

45 / 50



McCain 2008 margin: +5.20

Bush 2004 margin: +16.60

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.17


------------------------------------------------------------------


Iowa – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Cain

Palin

other

Huckabee

Trump

PPP

08/24/11

49 / 39

51 / 34

51 / 38

51 / 33

54 / 33

---

 

 

Mason-Dixon

07/13/11

39 / 42

47 / 42

--

--

--

--

 

 

PPP

06/03/11

49 / 40

--

 

 

55 / 35

50 / 32

49 / 37

(Pawlenty)

54 / 33

(Gingrich)

--

--

PPP

04/21/11

45 / 41

--

 

--

53 / 36

43 / 27 / 21

50 / 39

(Gingrich)

45 / 45

51 / 35

PPP

01/12/11

47 / 41

--

 

--

53 / 37

51 / 33

51 / 38

(Gingrich)

47/ 43

--



Obama 2008 margin: +9.53

Bush 2004 margin: +0.67

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.84


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Maine – DEM



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

03/11/11

49 / 41

---

53 / 37

57 / 35

----

51 / 39


Obama 2008 margin: +17.32

Kerry 2004 margin: +9.00

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.67


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Massachusetts - DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Cain

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

06/10/11

57 / 37

59 / 28

63 / 27

60 / 27

63 / 27

--

--

PPP

12/03/10

52 / 43

--

57 / 33

--

61 / 32

51 / 43

57 / 33


Obama 2008 margin: +25.81

Kerry 2004 margin: +25.16

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +14.75


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michigan- DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

PPP

07/27/11

47 / 42

53 / 37

---

54 / 36

50 / 33

 

50 / 31

(McCotter)

50 / 35

(Perry)

 

EPIC-MRA

07/19/11

42 / 46

--

 

--

 

---

---

---

PPP

03/25/11

48 / 41

 

 

55 / 35

 

53 / 37

49 / 38

50 /41

PPP

12/07/10

47 / 43

 

 

56 / 35

 

52 / 37

49 / 38

51 /39


Obama 2008 margin: +16.44

Kerry 2004 margin: +3.42

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.42


----------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota – DEM


Pollster

Date

Pawlenty

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

Bachmann

Cain

other

Huckabee

SUSA

06/23/11

46 / 46

--

--

--

53 / 39

--

--

--

PPP

06/08/11

51 / 43

51 / 36

54 / 36

56 / 36

56 / 35

51 / 36

46 / 32 / 16

 

SUSA

05/24/11

48 / 43

--

--

--

57 / 32

 

--

--

PPP

12/08/10

--

47 / 42

51 / 38

54 / 36

--

 

51 / 43

50 / 40


Obama 2008 margin: +10.24

Kerry 2004 margin: +3.48

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +6.15


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Mississippi – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bchmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Barbour

Huckabee

PPP

11/17/10

40 / 46

 

42 / 48

44 / 48

41 / 51

40 / 54


McCain 2008 margin: +13.17

Bush 2004 margin: +19.69

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.66


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Missouri – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

PPP

05/13/11

43 / 45

 

46 / 44

48 / 43

 

46 / 41

(Trump)

44 / 49

PPP

03/09/11

43 / 44

 

44 / 44

48 / 43

 

---

43 / 49

PPP

12/02/10

41 / 47

 

44 / 45

46 / 43

 

---

42 / 49



McCain 2008 margin: +0.13

Bush 2004 margin: +7.20

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.21


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Montana – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

PPP

06/28/11

41 / 49

41 / 48

41 / 45

44 / 48

41 / 46

--

---

PPP

11/17/10

29 / 50

--

41 / 51

45 / 47

---

41 / 51

(Gingrich)

44 / 49



McCain 2008 margin: +2.38

Bush 2004 margin: +20.50

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.54


------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Nebraska – GOP



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

01/31/11

37 / 49

 

40 / 48

44 / 45

---

38 / 51


McCain 2008 margin: +14.93

Bush 2004 margin: +33.22

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nevada – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Cain

Palin

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

Trump

PPP

08/03/11

47 / 46

50 / 40

48 / 39

51 / 39

---

49 / 40

(Perry)

 

 

PPP

04/28/11

43 / 46

---

 

50 / 39

46 / 42

42 / 34 / 20

44 / 30 / 21

45 / 43

47 / 41

PPP

01/07/11

47 / 46

---

 

52/39

51 / 40

----

51 / 41

---


Obama 2008 margin: +12.49

Bush 2004 margin: +2.59

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: + 9.94


----------------------------------------------------------------

New Hampshire – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

other

Gingrich.

Huckabee

Trump

PPP

07/07/11

44 / 46

49 /42

48 /41

56 / 38

49 / 39

(Cain)

--

--

--

UNH/WMUR

07/06/11

43 / 47

47 /41

47 /38

---

---

----

 

 

UNH

04/28/11

43 / 50

---

45 /38

---

---

----

46 / 42

---

Dartmouth

04/22/11

39 / 47

---

 

54 / 27

28 / 48

47 / 27

41 / 25

42 / 23

----

45 / 37

51 / 29

PPP

04/06/11

47 / 46

---

 

56 / 34

51 / 37

52 / 39

52 / 38

---

Magellan

02/14/11

48 / 44

---

 

57 / 34

---

56 / 33

51 / 38

---


Obama 2008 margin: +9.61

Kerry 2004 margin: +1.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +11.34

------------------------------------------------------------------

New Jersey- DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

PPP

07/21/11

53 / 39

55 / 35

54 / 32

59 / 33

55 / 29

56 / 39

(Christie)

 

Bloomberg

06/30/11

---

---

---

---

---

56 / 33

(Christie)

 

RAS

05/27/11

49 / 43

---

---

--

--

49 / 44

(Christie)

 

PPP

01/11/11

52 / 37

---

---

---

59 / 29

55 / 38

(Christie)

54 / 37

(Gingrinch)

53/36


Obama 2008 margin: +15.53

Kerry 2004 margin: +6.68

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +3.43


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Mexico- DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Cain

other

Gingrich.

Huckabee

PPP

06/29/11

49 / 42

52 / 37

 

56 / 36

52 / 36

46 / 43

(Johnson)


51 / 36

(Pawlenty)

---

 

PPP

02/09/11

53 / 37

--

--

62 / 33

--

51 / 36

56 / 35

55 / 36


Obama 2008 margin: +15.13

Bush 2004 margin: +0.79

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +4.10


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York- DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Perry

Bachmann

Paul

Palin

Giuliani

Siena

08/16/11

55 / 37

57 / 30

60 / 30

62 / 32

65 /26

50 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +26.86

Kerry 2004 margin: +18.29

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +5.42


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Carolina – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Cain

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Other

Huckabee

Trump

PPP

08/11/11

46 / 43

50 / 40

48 / 40

52 / 39

50 / 37

---

---


 

 

 

Civitas

07/18/11

--

--

42 / 45

--

--

--

--


 

 

 

PPP

07/13/11

45 / 45

46 / 43

 

50 / 42

46 / 42

46 / 41

---

 

 

 

PPP

06/13/11

45 / 44

---

 

52 / 38

48 / 37

47 / 40

50 / 40

 

--

--

PPP

05/25/11

46 / 43

---

 

52 / 40

--

--

50 / 42

 

47 / 46

52 / 35

PPP

04/26/11

47 / 44

---

 

52 / 40

--

--

49 / 45

 

48 / 47

51 / 39

PPP

03/23/11

44 / 42

---

 

51 / 40

--

--

47 / 42

 

45 / 45

 

PPP

02/23/11

47 / 44

---

 

51 / 41

 

 

48 / 44

 

46 / 47

 

PPP

01/25/11

47 / 44

---

 

50 / 41

 

 

50 / 44

 

49 / 45

 

PPP

12/22/10

46 / 43

---

 

52 / 38

 

 

48 / 42

 

45 / 46

 

PPP

11/29/10

47 / 46

---

 

51 / 42

 

 

49 / 43

 

48 / 45

 



Obama 2008 margin: +0.33

Bush 2004 margin: +12.44

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ohio - DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

PPP

08/16/11

45 / 43

48 / 41

45 / 41

51 / 38

---

47 / 39

(Cain)

 

Quinnipiac

07/21/11

45 / 41

49 / 36

47 / 35

51 / 35

---

 

 

PPP

05/24/11

46 / 42

---

---

50 / 40

49 / 40

48 / 38

---

Quinnipiac

03/24/11

--

---

---

--

--

41 / 34

--

PPP

03/18/11

46 / 40

---

---

52 / 36

50 / 38

----

48 / 41

Quinnipiac

01/20/11

--

---

---

--

--

44 / 39

--

PPP

12/14/10

44 / 42

---

---

49 / 42

47 / 41

----

45 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +4.58

Bush 2004 margin: +2.11

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.15


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oregon – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

Gingrich.

other

PPP

06/23/11

50 / 38

53 / 35

52 / 34

57 / 35

53 / 32

---

 


Obama 2008 margin: +16.35

Kerry 2004 margin: +4.16

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.58


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pennsylvania – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

Muhlenberg

 

 

 

 

 

 

36 / 31

(generic)

 

Quinnipiac

08/02/11

42 / 44

47 / 39

45 / 39

 

 

 

 

PPP

07/08/11

44 / 44

50 / 43

 

--

--

49 / 38

(Cain)

50 / 40

(Santorum)

47 / 39

(Pawlenty)

 

Quinnipiac

06/15/11

47 / 40

---

---

---

---

49 / 38

(Santorum)

 

PPP

04/12/11

42 / 43

---

---

50 / 39

47 / 39

45 / 43

45 / 44

Muhlenberg

03/07/11

43 / 36

---

---

53 / 35

----

37 / 33

44 / 34

PPP

01/06/11

46 / 42

 

 

51 / 36

50 / 40

----

47 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +10.31

Kerry 2004 margin: +2.50

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.25

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Rhode Island – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

02/28/11

54 / 37

---

60 / 27

65 / 24

----

56 / 31



Obama 2008 margin: +27.81

Kerry 2004 margin: +20.75

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +16.23


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

South Carolina – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

PPP

06/10/11

41 / 50

---

42 / 42

46 / 44

48 / 43

43 / 40

44 / 47

(DeMint)

 

PPP

02/03/11

42 / 49

---

43 / 49

44 / 43

47 / 41

 

45 / 47

(DeMint)

43 / 49


McCain 2008 margin: +8.98

Bush 2004 margin: +17.08

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +7.47


---------------------------------------------------------------

South Dakota – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

02/01/11

40 / 46

---

44 / 42

48 / 40

37 /57

41 / 47


McCain 2008 margin: +8.41

Bush 2004 margin: +21.47

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +13.31


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tennessee – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Vanderbilt

06/21/11

37.0 / 34.7

38.1 / 26.8

36.7 / 28.1

42.5 / 29.0


36.7 / 28.1

(Pawlenty)

---

PPP

02/17/11

41 / 48

 

43 / 46

45 / 45

---

41 / 53


McCain 2008 margin: +15.06

Bush 2004 margin: +14.27

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Texas – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Cain

Other

Gingrich.

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/29/11

42 / 50

44 / 47

47 /45

46 /44

43 /43

40 /45

(Paul)

---

 

PPP

01/20/11

42 / 49

--

45 / 45

46 / 47

---

---

43 / 48

39 / 55


McCain 2008 margin: +11.76

Bush 2004 margin: +22.86

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.49


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Utah – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Huntsman

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

PPP

07/15/11

31 / 63

35 / 49

23 / 63

34 / 45

41 / 43

36 / 43


McCain 2008 margin: +28.02

Bush 2004 margin: +45.54

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +26.59


Victory for any GOP candidate is all but guaranteed in this the no. 1 conservative state in the union.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Vermont – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Cain

Palin

other

PPP

08/16/11

54 / 34

58 / 30

57 / 28

58 / 26

62 / 28

 



Obama 2008 margin: +37.01

Kerry 2004 margin: +20.14

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +6.93


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Virginia – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Cain

Gingrich.

other

Trump

Huckabee

PPP

07/26/11

47 / 43

49 / 40

51 / 37

49 / 38

--

48 / 39

(Perry)

 

 

Quinnipiac

06/30/11

--

--

--

 

--

43 / 41

(generic)

--

---

PPP

05/10/11

51 / 40

 

55 / 40

 

54 / 37

51 / 43

52 / 32

52 / 43

WAPO

05/09/11

50 / 44

 

59 / 33

 

----

54 / 36

58 / 32

52 / 44

PPP

03/02/11

48 / 42

 

54 / 35

 

51 / 39

----

 

51 / 43

PPP

11/16/10

48 / 43

 

51 / 40

 

52 / 41

----

 

49 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +6.30

Bush 2004 margin: +8.20

Virginia Partisan shift 2008 over 2004: DEM +14.50

Partisan shift compared to national partisan shift: 14.50 – 9.72 = +4.78


GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.14


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington –DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

05/20/11

51 / 40

54 / 36

57 / 34

58 / 31

53 / 39


Obama 2008 margin: +17.08

Kerry 2004 margin: +7.18

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.97


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

West Virginia – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

01/27/11

37 / 50

---

39 / 49

42 / 46

---

36 / 54


McCain 2008 margin: +13.09

Bush 2004 margin: +12.86

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.81


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wisconsin – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Cain.

other

Huckabee

PPP

08/24/11

47 / 42

51 / 39

50 / 40

52 / 40

50 / 36

--

 

PPP

05/26/11

51 / 39

 

 

55 / 36

 

50 / 43

(Ryan)

53 / 35

(Gingrich)

 

PPP

03/03/11

48 / 38

 

 

54 / 35

 

49 / 40

(Ryan)

51 / 39

(Gingrich)

48 / 41



Obama 2008 margin: +13.90

Kerry 2004 margin: +0.38

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.83







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