26 August 2011

Two 2012 Electoral Landscape MAPS as of August 26, 2011



At the end of May 2011, I published all the state polling matchups (plus the national matchups): Obama vs. Republican field. At the end of June, 2011, I did likewise

 
It is time to update, this time differentiating between Obama vs. Romney and Obama vs. “not Romney”.

Next time around I will be adding Obama vs. Perry as well, but right now, there is not enough state data to make this possible.

---------------------------------------------------------
General poll statistics: Since November 2010, there have been 108 state polls with 449 presidential match-ups. Obama has won 355 of those match-ups, the GOP has won 84 match-ups and there have been 10 ties. If we restrict the time frame to the last two-months, from June 26,2011 until today, then of those 108 state polls, 33 have happened in the last two months, and of those 33, there were 126 presidential match-ups. Of those 126 recent match-ups, 99 are Obama wins, 24 are GOP wins, and 3 are ties. All in all, between national polling and state polling combined, I have now recorded 172 polls, making 688 match-ups, of which Obama has won 578 match-ups, the GOP has won 90 and there have been 20 ties. But that is just cosmetic: the real battle is from state to state, as we all know. There is a table at the bottom of this analysis, with the numbers, per state.


------------------------------------------
RAW DATA (hyperlinked):
Here is the page with all of the state polling data up to August 25, 2011.
Here is the page with all of the national polling data up to August 25,2011.

--------------------------------------------- 

At the end of June, 33 states in the Union had been polled. Two months later, that number has risen to 36 (Utah, Vermont, New York).
It is probably easier to first look at the states that have not been polled yet:

AL, AR, DE, DC, HI, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, ND, OK, and WY

Of these 14 states plus DC, we are really quite sure about the tilt of 13 of these 15, for these 13 states were massive landslide wins for their respective candidate and went either entirely or mostly for that same party in the last 6 presidential cycles in a row, from 1988-2008. No one is seriously considering OK as a DEM pick-up target in 2012. Equally unlikely is IL as a GOP potential pick-up. Two states were wins under +10 in 2008: ND and IN. Barring polling that really shows ND being competitive, I am logically scoring it for the GOP in 2012.

The state that stands out is IN, which has still not been polled. IN, which had the largest cross-partisan shift of 2008 (DEM +21.73%), is the state most likely to revert to the Republican column in 2012, especially if it is a tough re-election for President Obama. But since there is no empiric data from IN to-date, we cannot even make an informed choice yet. Therefore, for the lack of data, IN currently remains a tossup state.


So, here is a map of 14 of those 15 states that have not been polled yet, assigned their respective/expected colors:




Eight states have not been polled in the last 4 months: CA, GA, ME, MS, NE, RI, SD, WV.

Again, of these 8 states, we know the likely tilt of 7: GA, however, was a close race in 2008 (McCain won with +5.20% in the Peach State) and the two polls of GA show it even closer between Obama and Romney. A fresh GA poll would be helpful, also with Perry in the mix, but until such time, GA lands in the TOSSUPS next to IN.

The statewide polling trends lead to the following conclusion: one can make two equally valid projection maps: one for Obama vs. Romney and one for Obama vs. all other GOP candidates (not-Romney). According to the current data, against all other GOP candidates, Obama is set to keep the pick-up states he won in 2008 and probably add some to his column. Against Romney, Obama is losing in NH, is extremely weak in PA, FL, NV and OH, but holding in all other pick-up states. He is showing resiliency in two western pick-up states (NM, and very notably, CO) and in VA, which I prophesied 3 years ago would probably be cemented into the Democratic column. He is ahead in NC, but it is close. NC and GA look very much like mirror images of each other right now.

So, I am publishing 2 electoral scenarios, based purely on polling results. Adding to the 14 states from above, the map assigns a state to the candidate who is currently leading by more than +4 or more in that state (when more than one recent poll, then the average is taken, for instance, MN in the case of Obama vs. Romney:

Obama vs. Romney
Obama vs. all other Republicans other than Romney


Map 1: Obama vs. Romney


In the Obama vs. Romney map, there are 8 statistical battleground-tossups + IN (explained above), making 9 states: PA, OH, NC, GA, FL, IN MO, AZ, NV, worth 136 EV. Obama is statistically secure with 255 EV, Romney is statistically secure with 147 EV:


Details, Obama vs. Romney:

In NH, 4 polls in a row have shown Romney in front, with an average of more than +4. So, NH is assigned to Romney.

In FL, the latest 3 polls show Romney ahead or tied, but the average is less than +4. Therefore, FL is a tossup.

PA is the state in many ways where Obama is showing the most weakness. If trends continue this way, then this state could very conceivably move into the Romney column. Those 20 EV could be a big offset to an Obama win in VA in 2012.

In MO, there is a lot of partisan banter that the state is tilting more and more to the right, but the current data does not support this argument: in the last PPP poll, Romney was up by 2 but Obama was beating the rest of the GOP field still in the race. MO was indeed the closest race of 2012 (McCain +0.12%), so it is logical and no surprise that MO is still a battleground. PPP shows NV as a real tie, but only between Obama and Romney. In NV, Obama landslides against the rest of the GOP field.

-Obama is showing resiliency against Romney in IA (Obama +10), WI (Obama +5) and MN (avg. Obama +4), states that the GOP would like to pick up.

-Also pollls of CO six months apart from each other show llittle change in this state (Obama up from +6 to +7). This is bad news for Romney. Statistically, he is doing somewhat better in NM (from -15 to -7), but still behind.

-Probably most telling of all: in every single match-up in both OH and VA against all GOP candidates, Obama has won in every single match-up.

So, statistically, it is much easier at this point in time for Obama to get to 270 than for Romney.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Map 2: Obama vs. any one of the rest of the GOP candidates. Obama: 384, Republican candidate 96, undecided 158.



Details:

Not one single state in the Obama 255 column from the Obama-Romney column shifts even slightly to any of the other declared candidates who have a chance at the nomination: Gary Johnson in NM loses to Obama by 3, but he is still at the 1% mark nationally and will not win the nomination. In every state that would be a battleground state, Obama widens his margin over the rest of the Republican field and the following states shift to Obama:

NH shifts from Red (Romney) to solid Obama.
PA, OH, NC, NV shift to solid Obama. FL, AZ, GA and MO shift to lean Obama.

IN remains a tossup, for the reason listed above. But SC and TX (Perry +2) shift to tossup-battleground. Do I believe that Obama can win TX, especially if it is a Perry nomination? No, not at all. But this is the math at this moment.

Now, some of these polls do not yet contain Perry, but the ones that do show him losing: in OH (Obama +4), PA (Obama +6), NV (Obama +9), NC (Obama +8), IA (Obama +13), WI (Obama +10) and MN. A Perry nomination with today's stats would be a probably Obama +11% win nationally.

The only change I could register were I to do an exclusive Obama-Perry map would be that FL would remain a tossup – and in two of those polls (neither of which is PPP, by the way), Perry loses by 5.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Once again:

Here is the page with all of the state polling data up to August 25, 2011.

Here is the page with all of the national polling data up to August 25,2011.

------------------------------------------------------

Here some statistics over the polls themselves:

State Total polls Total match-ups Recent polls (06/25-present) Total recent matchups (06/25-present) No. Obama wins No. GOP wins No. ties
AK 1 1 1 1 1 / 1 recent 0 0 / 0 recent
AZ 2 9 0 0 5 / 0 recent 4 0 / 0 recent
CA 1 5 0 0 5 / 0 recent 0 0 / 0 recent
CA 2 10 1 5 10 / 5 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
CT 1 1 0 0 1 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
FL 11 39 4 10 30 / 4 recent 8 / 5 recent 1 / 0 recent
GA 2 9 0 0 5 / 0 recent 4 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
IA 5 23 2 7 21 / 6 recent 1 / 1 recent 1 / 0 recent
ME 1 4 0 0 4 / 0 resent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
MA 2 10 0 0 10 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
MI 4 17 2 7 16 / 6 recent 1 / 1 recent 0 / 0 recent
MN 4 16 1 2 15 /1 recent 0 / 0 recent 1 / 0 recent
MS 1 5 0 0 0 / 0 recent 5 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
MO 3 13 0 0 5 / 0 recent 9 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
MT 2 10 1 5 0 / 0 recent 10 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
NE 1 4 0 0 0 / 0 recent 4 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
NV 3 16 1 5 15 / 5 recent 1 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
NH 6 28 2 8 24 / 6 recent 4 / 2 recent 0 / 0 recent
NJ 6 14 2 7 14 / 7 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
NM 2 11 1 6 11 / 6 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
NY 1 6 1 6 6 / 6 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
NC 11 46 3 11 41 / 9 recent 3 / 1 recent 2 / 1 recent
OH 7 23 2 9 23 / 9 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
OR 1 5 0 0 5 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
PA 7 24 3 9 21 / 7 recent 2 / 1 recent 1 / 1 recent
RI 1 4 0 0 4 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
SC 2 12 0 0 5 / 0 recent 6 / 0 recent 1 / 0 recent
SD 1 5 0 0 2 / 0 recent 3 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
TN 2 9 0 0 5 / 0 recent 3 / 0 recent 1 / 0 recent
TX 2 11 1 6 2 / 2 recent 7 / 3 recent 2 / 1 recent
UT 1 6 1 6 0 / 0 recent 6 / 6 recent 0 / 0 recent
VT 1 5 1 5 5 / 5 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
VA 6 25 2 6 25 / 6 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
WA 1 5 0 0 5 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
WV 1 4 0 0 0 / 0 recent 4 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
WI 3 14 1 5 14 / 5 recent 0 / 0 recent 0 / 0 recent
Total state polls 108 449 33 126 355 / 99 recent 84 / 24 recent 10 / 3 recent
National match-ups 64 239 25 92 223 / 85 recent 6 / 3 recent 10 / 7 recent
Grand total 172 688 58 218 578 / 184 90 / 27 recent 20 / 10 recent
Report END.











State Presidential Polling Obama vs. GOP field, up to August 26, 2011

Statewide polling Presidential Match-ups

Obama vs. Republican Field

November 2010 to August 26, 2011


Alaska – GOP



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Pawlenty

other

Hays

06/28/11

--

--

42 / 36

---

--


McCain 2008 margin: +21.54

Bush 2004 margin: +25.55

GOP combined margin average 1960-2004: +15.80


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arizona - GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

Trump

other

Huckabee

PPP

05/03/11

44 / 48

47 / 40

49 / 38

48 / 36

 

46 / 44

PPP

03/02/11

43 / 49

46 / 46

49 / 41

 

---

44 / 48


McCain 2008 margin: +8.48

Bush 2004 margin: +10.47

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +14.60


--------------------------------------------------------------

California- DEM



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

02/03/11

56 / 36

 

58 / 34

62 / 31

48/40

54 / 39



Obama 2008 margin: +24.03

Kerry 2004 margin: +9.95

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.96


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colorado – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Cain

Perry

other

Huckabee

PPP

08/10/11

48 / 41

51 / 39

54 / 38

51 / 35

51 / 38

---

---

PPP

02/08/11

47 / 41

----

55 / 36

 

 

46 / 35

(generic)

53 / 39

(Gingrich)

51 / 42



Obama 2008 margin: +8.95
Bush 2004 margin: +4.67
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.41

----------------------------------------------------------------

Connecticut – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Quinnipiac

06/15/11

 

 

 

 

 

46 / 35

(generic)



Obama 2008 margin: +22.37

Kerry 2004 margin: +10.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.03


---------------------------------------------------------------

Florida – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Perry

Bachmann

Palin

Cain

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

Magellan (R)

08/23/11

39 / 49

39 / 46

42 / 43

---

---

---

---

---

McLaughlin & Assoc. (R)

08/??/11

44 / 45

44 / 39

---

---

---

---

--

---

Quinnipiac

08/04/11

44 / 44

44 / 39

50 / 38

53 / 34

 

---


 

 

Sunshine State

07/12/11

42 / 46

 

--

--

--

--

--

 

PPP

06/24/11

47 / 43

 

49 / 40

52 / 40

48 / 37

--

48 / 40

(Pawlenty)

 

Quinnipiac

05/26/11

--

 

--

--

--

--

44 / 37

 

Suffolk

04/14/11

44 / 43

 

--

52 / 34

 

47 / 36

41 / 28

45 / 30

49 / 34

44 / 41

Sachs / Mason-Dixon

04/11/11

43 / 48

 

--

51 / 39

 

----

48 / 40

44 / 49

Quinnipiac

04/07/11

 

 

--

 

 

 

38 / 41

 

PPP

03/31/11

46 / 44

 

--

52 / 39

 

50 / 42

48 / 45

48 / 42

50 / 43

PPP

12/22/10

46 / 44

 

--

52 / 38

 

47 / 42

48 / 40

49 / 44



Obama 2008 margin: +2.81

Bush 2004 margin: +5.01

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +8.65

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Georgia – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

04/05/11

43 / 46

--

46 / 45

48 / 43

44 / 39

45 / 48

20/20

02/03/11

44 / 50

--

45 / 47

47 / 43

---

45 / 50



McCain 2008 margin: +5.20

Bush 2004 margin: +16.60

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.17


------------------------------------------------------------------


Iowa – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Cain

Palin

other

Huckabee

Trump

PPP

08/24/11

49 / 39

51 / 34

51 / 38

51 / 33

54 / 33

---

 

 

Mason-Dixon

07/13/11

39 / 42

47 / 42

--

--

--

--

 

 

PPP

06/03/11

49 / 40

--

 

 

55 / 35

50 / 32

49 / 37

(Pawlenty)

54 / 33

(Gingrich)

--

--

PPP

04/21/11

45 / 41

--

 

--

53 / 36

43 / 27 / 21

50 / 39

(Gingrich)

45 / 45

51 / 35

PPP

01/12/11

47 / 41

--

 

--

53 / 37

51 / 33

51 / 38

(Gingrich)

47/ 43

--



Obama 2008 margin: +9.53

Bush 2004 margin: +0.67

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.84


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Maine – DEM



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

03/11/11

49 / 41

---

53 / 37

57 / 35

----

51 / 39


Obama 2008 margin: +17.32

Kerry 2004 margin: +9.00

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.67


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Massachusetts - DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Cain

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

06/10/11

57 / 37

59 / 28

63 / 27

60 / 27

63 / 27

--

--

PPP

12/03/10

52 / 43

--

57 / 33

--

61 / 32

51 / 43

57 / 33


Obama 2008 margin: +25.81

Kerry 2004 margin: +25.16

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +14.75


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michigan- DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

PPP

07/27/11

47 / 42

53 / 37

---

54 / 36

50 / 33

 

50 / 31

(McCotter)

50 / 35

(Perry)

 

EPIC-MRA

07/19/11

42 / 46

--

 

--

 

---

---

---

PPP

03/25/11

48 / 41

 

 

55 / 35

 

53 / 37

49 / 38

50 /41

PPP

12/07/10

47 / 43

 

 

56 / 35

 

52 / 37

49 / 38

51 /39


Obama 2008 margin: +16.44

Kerry 2004 margin: +3.42

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.42


----------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota – DEM


Pollster

Date

Pawlenty

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

Bachmann

Cain

other

Huckabee

SUSA

06/23/11

46 / 46

--

--

--

53 / 39

--

--

--

PPP

06/08/11

51 / 43

51 / 36

54 / 36

56 / 36

56 / 35

51 / 36

46 / 32 / 16

 

SUSA

05/24/11

48 / 43

--

--

--

57 / 32

 

--

--

PPP

12/08/10

--

47 / 42

51 / 38

54 / 36

--

 

51 / 43

50 / 40


Obama 2008 margin: +10.24

Kerry 2004 margin: +3.48

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +6.15


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Mississippi – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bchmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Barbour

Huckabee

PPP

11/17/10

40 / 46

 

42 / 48

44 / 48

41 / 51

40 / 54


McCain 2008 margin: +13.17

Bush 2004 margin: +19.69

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.66


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Missouri – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

PPP

05/13/11

43 / 45

 

46 / 44

48 / 43

 

46 / 41

(Trump)

44 / 49

PPP

03/09/11

43 / 44

 

44 / 44

48 / 43

 

---

43 / 49

PPP

12/02/10

41 / 47

 

44 / 45

46 / 43

 

---

42 / 49



McCain 2008 margin: +0.13

Bush 2004 margin: +7.20

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.21


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Montana – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

PPP

06/28/11

41 / 49

41 / 48

41 / 45

44 / 48

41 / 46

--

---

PPP

11/17/10

29 / 50

--

41 / 51

45 / 47

---

41 / 51

(Gingrich)

44 / 49



McCain 2008 margin: +2.38

Bush 2004 margin: +20.50

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.54


------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Nebraska – GOP



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

01/31/11

37 / 49

 

40 / 48

44 / 45

---

38 / 51


McCain 2008 margin: +14.93

Bush 2004 margin: +33.22

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nevada – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Cain

Palin

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

Trump

PPP

08/03/11

47 / 46

50 / 40

48 / 39

51 / 39

---

49 / 40

(Perry)

 

 

PPP

04/28/11

43 / 46

---

 

50 / 39

46 / 42

42 / 34 / 20

44 / 30 / 21

45 / 43

47 / 41

PPP

01/07/11

47 / 46

---

 

52/39

51 / 40

----

51 / 41

---


Obama 2008 margin: +12.49

Bush 2004 margin: +2.59

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: + 9.94


----------------------------------------------------------------

New Hampshire – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

other

Gingrich.

Huckabee

Trump

PPP

07/07/11

44 / 46

49 /42

48 /41

56 / 38

49 / 39

(Cain)

--

--

--

UNH/WMUR

07/06/11

43 / 47

47 /41

47 /38

---

---

----

 

 

UNH

04/28/11

43 / 50

---

45 /38

---

---

----

46 / 42

---

Dartmouth

04/22/11

39 / 47

---

 

54 / 27

28 / 48

47 / 27

41 / 25

42 / 23

----

45 / 37

51 / 29

PPP

04/06/11

47 / 46

---

 

56 / 34

51 / 37

52 / 39

52 / 38

---

Magellan

02/14/11

48 / 44

---

 

57 / 34

---

56 / 33

51 / 38

---


Obama 2008 margin: +9.61

Kerry 2004 margin: +1.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +11.34

------------------------------------------------------------------

New Jersey- DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

PPP

07/21/11

53 / 39

55 / 35

54 / 32

59 / 33

55 / 29

56 / 39

(Christie)

 

Bloomberg

06/30/11

---

---

---

---

---

56 / 33

(Christie)

 

RAS

05/27/11

49 / 43

---

---

--

--

49 / 44

(Christie)

 

PPP

01/11/11

52 / 37

---

---

---

59 / 29

55 / 38

(Christie)

54 / 37

(Gingrinch)

53/36


Obama 2008 margin: +15.53

Kerry 2004 margin: +6.68

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +3.43


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Mexico- DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Cain

other

Gingrich.

Huckabee

PPP

06/29/11

49 / 42

52 / 37

 

56 / 36

52 / 36

46 / 43

(Johnson)


51 / 36

(Pawlenty)

---

 

PPP

02/09/11

53 / 37

--

--

62 / 33

--

51 / 36

56 / 35

55 / 36


Obama 2008 margin: +15.13

Bush 2004 margin: +0.79

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +4.10


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York- DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Perry

Bachmann

Paul

Palin

Giuliani

Siena

08/16/11

55 / 37

57 / 30

60 / 30

62 / 32

65 /26

50 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +26.86

Kerry 2004 margin: +18.29

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +5.42


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Carolina – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Cain

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Other

Huckabee

Trump

PPP

08/11/11

46 / 43

50 / 40

48 / 40

52 / 39

50 / 37

---

---


 

 

 

Civitas

07/18/11

--

--

42 / 45

--

--

--

--


 

 

 

PPP

07/13/11

45 / 45

46 / 43

 

50 / 42

46 / 42

46 / 41

---

 

 

 

PPP

06/13/11

45 / 44

---

 

52 / 38

48 / 37

47 / 40

50 / 40

 

--

--

PPP

05/25/11

46 / 43

---

 

52 / 40

--

--

50 / 42

 

47 / 46

52 / 35

PPP

04/26/11

47 / 44

---

 

52 / 40

--

--

49 / 45

 

48 / 47

51 / 39

PPP

03/23/11

44 / 42

---

 

51 / 40

--

--

47 / 42

 

45 / 45

 

PPP

02/23/11

47 / 44

---

 

51 / 41

 

 

48 / 44

 

46 / 47

 

PPP

01/25/11

47 / 44

---

 

50 / 41

 

 

50 / 44

 

49 / 45

 

PPP

12/22/10

46 / 43

---

 

52 / 38

 

 

48 / 42

 

45 / 46

 

PPP

11/29/10

47 / 46

---

 

51 / 42

 

 

49 / 43

 

48 / 45

 



Obama 2008 margin: +0.33

Bush 2004 margin: +12.44

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ohio - DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

PPP

08/16/11

45 / 43

48 / 41

45 / 41

51 / 38

---

47 / 39

(Cain)

 

Quinnipiac

07/21/11

45 / 41

49 / 36

47 / 35

51 / 35

---

 

 

PPP

05/24/11

46 / 42

---

---

50 / 40

49 / 40

48 / 38

---

Quinnipiac

03/24/11

--

---

---

--

--

41 / 34

--

PPP

03/18/11

46 / 40

---

---

52 / 36

50 / 38

----

48 / 41

Quinnipiac

01/20/11

--

---

---

--

--

44 / 39

--

PPP

12/14/10

44 / 42

---

---

49 / 42

47 / 41

----

45 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +4.58

Bush 2004 margin: +2.11

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.15


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oregon – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

Gingrich.

other

PPP

06/23/11

50 / 38

53 / 35

52 / 34

57 / 35

53 / 32

---

 


Obama 2008 margin: +16.35

Kerry 2004 margin: +4.16

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.58


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pennsylvania – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

Muhlenberg

 

 

 

 

 

 

36 / 31

(generic)

 

Quinnipiac

08/02/11

42 / 44

47 / 39

45 / 39

 

 

 

 

PPP

07/08/11

44 / 44

50 / 43

 

--

--

49 / 38

(Cain)

50 / 40

(Santorum)

47 / 39

(Pawlenty)

 

Quinnipiac

06/15/11

47 / 40

---

---

---

---

49 / 38

(Santorum)

 

PPP

04/12/11

42 / 43

---

---

50 / 39

47 / 39

45 / 43

45 / 44

Muhlenberg

03/07/11

43 / 36

---

---

53 / 35

----

37 / 33

44 / 34

PPP

01/06/11

46 / 42

 

 

51 / 36

50 / 40

----

47 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +10.31

Kerry 2004 margin: +2.50

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.25

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Rhode Island – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

02/28/11

54 / 37

---

60 / 27

65 / 24

----

56 / 31



Obama 2008 margin: +27.81

Kerry 2004 margin: +20.75

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +16.23


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

South Carolina – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

PPP

06/10/11

41 / 50

---

42 / 42

46 / 44

48 / 43

43 / 40

44 / 47

(DeMint)

 

PPP

02/03/11

42 / 49

---

43 / 49

44 / 43

47 / 41

 

45 / 47

(DeMint)

43 / 49


McCain 2008 margin: +8.98

Bush 2004 margin: +17.08

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +7.47


---------------------------------------------------------------

South Dakota – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

02/01/11

40 / 46

---

44 / 42

48 / 40

37 /57

41 / 47


McCain 2008 margin: +8.41

Bush 2004 margin: +21.47

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +13.31


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tennessee – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Vanderbilt

06/21/11

37.0 / 34.7

38.1 / 26.8

36.7 / 28.1

42.5 / 29.0


36.7 / 28.1

(Pawlenty)

---

PPP

02/17/11

41 / 48

 

43 / 46

45 / 45

---

41 / 53


McCain 2008 margin: +15.06

Bush 2004 margin: +14.27

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Texas – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Cain

Other

Gingrich.

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/29/11

42 / 50

44 / 47

47 /45

46 /44

43 /43

40 /45

(Paul)

---

 

PPP

01/20/11

42 / 49

--

45 / 45

46 / 47

---

---

43 / 48

39 / 55


McCain 2008 margin: +11.76

Bush 2004 margin: +22.86

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.49


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Utah – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Huntsman

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

PPP

07/15/11

31 / 63

35 / 49

23 / 63

34 / 45

41 / 43

36 / 43


McCain 2008 margin: +28.02

Bush 2004 margin: +45.54

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +26.59


Victory for any GOP candidate is all but guaranteed in this the no. 1 conservative state in the union.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Vermont – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Cain

Palin

other

PPP

08/16/11

54 / 34

58 / 30

57 / 28

58 / 26

62 / 28

 



Obama 2008 margin: +37.01

Kerry 2004 margin: +20.14

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +6.93


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Virginia – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Cain

Gingrich.

other

Trump

Huckabee

PPP

07/26/11

47 / 43

49 / 40

51 / 37

49 / 38

--

48 / 39

(Perry)

 

 

Quinnipiac

06/30/11

--

--

--

 

--

43 / 41

(generic)

--

---

PPP

05/10/11

51 / 40

 

55 / 40

 

54 / 37

51 / 43

52 / 32

52 / 43

WAPO

05/09/11

50 / 44

 

59 / 33

 

----

54 / 36

58 / 32

52 / 44

PPP

03/02/11

48 / 42

 

54 / 35

 

51 / 39

----

 

51 / 43

PPP

11/16/10

48 / 43

 

51 / 40

 

52 / 41

----

 

49 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +6.30

Bush 2004 margin: +8.20

Virginia Partisan shift 2008 over 2004: DEM +14.50

Partisan shift compared to national partisan shift: 14.50 – 9.72 = +4.78


GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.14


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington –DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

PPP

05/20/11

51 / 40

54 / 36

57 / 34

58 / 31

53 / 39


Obama 2008 margin: +17.08

Kerry 2004 margin: +7.18

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.97


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

West Virginia – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

01/27/11

37 / 50

---

39 / 49

42 / 46

---

36 / 54


McCain 2008 margin: +13.09

Bush 2004 margin: +12.86

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.81


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wisconsin – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Perry

Palin

Cain.

other

Huckabee

PPP

08/24/11

47 / 42

51 / 39

50 / 40

52 / 40

50 / 36

--

 

PPP

05/26/11

51 / 39

 

 

55 / 36

 

50 / 43

(Ryan)

53 / 35

(Gingrich)

 

PPP

03/03/11

48 / 38

 

 

54 / 35

 

49 / 40

(Ryan)

51 / 39

(Gingrich)

48 / 41



Obama 2008 margin: +13.90

Kerry 2004 margin: +0.38

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.83