06 July 2011

New UNH/WMUR Poll of New Hampshire.

I just posted ALL of the state polling tables for PREZ for up to End of June just yesterday, and in between, another NH poll came in.

UNH/WMUR just put out a second prez poll for NH (the first was in April 2011) and again their polling shows Romney leading President Obama in this state. And I bet PPP will have one out in the next two days.

This is the third poll in a row with such results for Mitt Romney.

Here a graphic of all those numbers:

Here we see 23 matchups within 5 polls. Obama has won 19 matchups, one "other GOP" won one poll (Colin Powell) and Romney has now won 3 match-ups, the last three in a row. So, a composite of this state would indicate that it is still BLUE. But an individual EC landscape map with just Obama and Romney would now color this state RED. Now, some could claim that there are other states, like SC, where Obama is leading some of the GOP pack. But in none of those cases thus far have three polls in such a short time frame produced the same results.

Note please that Romney has actually lost on percentage and margin over April and that President Obama has improved his percentage and margin over Pawlenty. Neither Palin nor Trump were ever competitive here. But Romney's current margin is bigger than Kerry's winning margin in 2008 and Bush's winning margin in 2000. Not only that, the WMUR polling in NH in 2008 was pretty solid. I would not be poo-pooing these polls.

This is currently the ONLY state in the Union to show such mixed results resulting in a pick-up advantage for the GOP, but the trend in NH is unqestionably to Mitt Romney at this time. That being said, Romney is running weaker in GA than McCain did, so Obama is surely looking to aggressively pursue this state and its 16 electoral votes. Should PPP also put out a poll of NH showing similar results, then that would only serve to confirm what the other three polls are showing: that President Obama is weak in NH.

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