05 July 2011

Electoral Landscape as of end of June, 2011 (state tables and map)

Polls from all 50 states and national, alphabetical:

End of June, 2011


At the end of May 211, I published all the state polling matchups (plus the national matchups): Obama vs. Republican field.


Another month has come by and it is time to update.


At the end of May, 30 states in the Union had been polled. That number has risen to 33.


(States in bold are new states that had polls in June, 2011. Numbers in bold indicate states that have increased in number of polls):


AK (1), AZ (2), CA (1), CO (1), CT (1), FL (7), GA (2), IA (3), ME (1), MA (2), MI (2), MN (4), MS (1), MO (3), MT (2), NE (1), NV (2), NH (4), NM(2), NJ (3), NC (8), OH (5), OR (1), PA (4), RI (1), SC (2), SD (1), TN (2), TX (2), VA (5), WA (1), WV (1), WI (2)


And here in order of number of polls, descending:

8: NC

7: FL

5: OH

4: MN, NH, PA, VA

3: IA, MO, NJ,

2: AZ, GA, MA, MI, MN, MT, NV, NM, TN, TX, WI

1: AK, CA, CO, CT, ME, MS, NE,OR, RI, SC, SD, WA, WV


That makes for 80 state polls total. There were 67 at the end of May. At the bottom of the state tables are two national tables, for a total of 43 national polls.

The tables have been reorganized. Huckabee and Trump have been moved to the outer right columns of each table where applicable and shaded in grey, since those two have left the race. Michele Bachmann's name has now been added to every table – it is expected that polling in the future will include her name a lot.

One GOP candidate was not polled even once in June 2011: Newt Gingrich. If that trend continues in July and August, then I will also move him into the dead “grey” column area, just for reference.

With the pulse of 33 states having been checked at least once, it is possible to make a 2nd rudimentary map of how the electoral landscape is looking right now, based on the data-tables provided here. For each state, I have created a table, just as I did in 2008, with pollster (hyperlinked), publication date and then the names of prospective GOP candidates.


The poll numbers are then color coded:


blue=DEM, red=GOP

bold=winner of the matchup

italics=tie.


The designation after the state on the tables is based on its performance in the 2008 GE. Ohio was a DEM pick-up in 2008, so it currently stands as a DEM state. AZ was a GOP state in 2008, so it is listed as a GOP state now. Under each table are some sideline statistics from 2004, 2008 and the average of that state from 1948-2004 (the nuclear age).


Here as an example of how a state-table looks, using IOWA as an example:


Iowa – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Pawlenty

Palin

other

Huckabee

Trump

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/03/11

49 / 40

54 / 33

49 / 37

55 / 35

50 / 32

--

--

PPP

04/21/11

45 / 41

50 / 39

--

53 / 36

43 / 27 / 21

45 / 45

51 / 35

PPP

01/12/11

47 / 41

51 / 38

--

53 / 37

51 / 33

47/ 43

--



Obama 2008 margin: +9.53

Bush 2004 margin: +0.67

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.84


-----------------------------------

We see here three PPP polls, two and three months apart from each other. We see 16 match-ups, of which Obama has won 15 and the 11th is a tie, and that against a candidate who is no longer in the race. For this reason, in creating an electoral landscape map, this state is still blue at this time.


You will see some polls that are very mixed. GA for instance shows Obama winning some match-ups, but the GOP still wins the majority of the match-ups. Therefore, this state stays red at this time.


A couple of the newest polls cannot be calculated fairly. Two of them are extremely questionable:


1.) The poll of AK only shows a match-up against Palin, who is not yet a declared candidate. Not only that, there are way too many undecideds for a state that is decidedly red most of the time. AK stays red in spite of one and only one match-up showing Obama in the lead. This poll is an outlier.

2.) Likewise, in TN, a university poll came out showing Obama narrowly winning in all matchups, but there are way too many undecideds in this poll, which is usually a sign of hanky panky or loaded questions, the same issue I have often made with RAS over the majority of its blue state polling. TN remains blue. This poll may win the “Outlier of the Year” award from me.


-Also, a poll like the new Quinnipiac of CT which shows only a generic match-up is pretty lacking in depth. I am also no fan of generic matchups. Nonetheless, starting with a +9 lead in this state is a pretty sure indication that CT stays blue.


-In that vein, one poll of Texas showing Obama leading Perry does not turn this state blue. But the composite of all these races indeed shows narrower margins that the +11.78% margin that John McCain had in 2008.


-In all the BATTLEGROUND STATES that have been polled again, there are no new tea leaves to be red: those states are exactly as they were in May 2011. So, for all intents and purposes, the maps from May 2011 to June 2011 has no internal changes, just three states have been added and they are all in the predictable color. There have, however, been some subtle shifts within the expected battlegrounds, and they are worth looking at:

-In Iowa, Obama is running slighty stronger than in May. In Massachusetts (which is not a battleground state, but a good indicator of national pull), his margins are drastically larger than they were in December 2010. Obama strengthing in Iowa would make no sense were his numbers in Massachusetts less than blowout margins.

-In Montana, the GOP is still favored, but the margins are dramatically reduced over the last MT poll.

-In Florida, the situation is holding steady, but the newest Florida poll was one of the first polls to include Michele Bachmann, and there Obama has a +9 lead. I believe this is an important number to consider in a “must win” state for the GOP. Likewise, in New Mexico, the situation is also “steady” and here Bachmann was also polled (Obama +15); however, Romney has narrowed the margin between himself and Obama. Most statisticians list NM at the top of states that the GOP is unlikely to reclaim in 2012, and current polling is undergirding their assessment.

-In North Carolina, the situation remains unchanged, and as in virtually every state in the Union, Romney comes closest to Obama. But the President maintains a small but resilient lead over Romney. All other candidates are considerably behind. I cannot report any changes with accuracy out of Virginia, for the only June poll in VA was one generic matchup (Obama +2, both in the low 40s) – and this is most likely an outlier for a state that is so politically charged as the Dominion is. It is important to note that VA and NC combined have almost exactly the same electoral firepower as FL.

-Lastly, in Pennsylvania, Obama has improved his lead over Romney. If Obama is at +7 over Romney here, then all other GOP candidates most likely have double digit deficits against the President.


So, here is Map Nr. 2 (right-click, open in new tab). It is NOT a prediction of how the state will go in 2012, but rather, how conditions are looking right now. Tables underneath:




STATE TABLES:

Alaska – GOP



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Pawlenty

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hays

06/28/11

--

--

42 / 36

---

--


McCain 2008 margin: +21.54

Bush 2004 margin: +25.55

GOP combined margin average 1960-2004: +15.80


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arizona - GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

Trump

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

05/03/11

44 / 48

47 / 40

49 / 38

48 / 36

 

46 / 44

PPP

03/02/11

43 / 49

46 / 46

49 / 41

 

---

44 / 48


McCain 2008 margin: +8.48

Bush 2004 margin: +10.47

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +14.60


----------------------------------------------------------------------

California- DEM



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

02/03/11

56 / 36

 

58 / 34

62 / 31

48/40

54 / 39



Obama 2008 margin: +24.03

Kerry 2004 margin: +9.95

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.96


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colorado – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

02/08/11

47 / 41

----

53 / 39

55 / 36

 

46 / 35

(generic)

51 / 42



Obama 2008 margin: +8.95
Bush 2004 margin: +4.67
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.41

----------------------------------------------------------------

Connecticut – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quinnipiac

06/15/11

--

---

---

---

--

46 / 35

(generic)



Obama 2008 margin: +22.37

Kerry 2004 margin: +10.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.03


---------------------------------------------------------------

Florida – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/24/11

47 / 43

48 / 40

49 / 40

--

52 / 40

48 / 37

 

 

Quinnipiac

05/26/11

--

--

--

--

--

--

44 / 37

 

Suffolk

04/14/11

44 / 43

--

--

47 / 36

52 / 34

 

41 / 28

45 / 30

49 / 34

44 / 41

Sachs / Mason-Dixon

04/11/11

43 / 48

--

--

----

51 / 39

 

48 / 40

44 / 49

Quinnipiac

04/07/11

 

--

--

 

 

 

38 / 41

 

PPP

03/31/11

46 / 44

--

--

50 / 42

52 / 39

 

48 / 45

48 / 42

50 / 43

PPP

12/22/10

46 / 44

--

--

47 / 42

52 / 38

 

48 / 40

49 / 44



Obama 2008 margin: +2.81

Bush 2004 margin: +5.01

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +8.65

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Georgia – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

04/05/11

43 / 46

--

46 / 45

48 / 43

44 / 39

45 / 48

20/20

02/03/11

44 / 50

--

45 / 47

47 / 43

---

45 / 50



McCain 2008 margin: +5.20

Bush 2004 margin: +16.60

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.17



--------------------------------------------------------------------

Iowa – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Pawlenty

Palin

other

Huckabee

Trump

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/03/11

49 / 40

54 / 33

49 / 37

55 / 35

50 / 32

--

--

PPP

04/21/11

45 / 41

50 / 39

--

53 / 36

43 / 27 / 21

45 / 45

51 / 35

PPP

01/12/11

47 / 41

51 / 38

--

53 / 37

51 / 33

47/ 43

--



Obama 2008 margin: +9.53

Bush 2004 margin: +0.67

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.84


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maine – DEM



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

03/11/11

49 / 41

---

53 / 37

57 / 35

----

51 / 39


Obama 2008 margin: +17.32

Kerry 2004 margin: +9.00

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.67


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Massachusetts - DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Cain

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/10/11

57 / 37

59 / 28

63 / 27

60 / 27

63 / 27

--

--

PPP

12/03/10

52 / 43

 

57 / 33

 

61 / 32

51 / 43

57 / 33


Obama 2008 margin: +25.81

Kerry 2004 margin: +25.16

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +14.75


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michigan- DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

03/25/11

48 / 41

---

53 / 37

55 / 35

49 / 38

50 /41

PPP

12/07/10

47 / 43

---

52 / 37

56 / 35

49 / 38

51 /39


Obama 2008 margin: +16.44

Kerry 2004 margin: +3.42

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.42


----------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota – DEM


Pollster

Date

Pawlenty

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

Bachmann

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUSA

06/23/11

46 / 46

--

--

--

53 / 39

--

--

--

PPP

06/08/11

51 / 43

51 / 36

54 / 36

56 / 36

56 / 35

51 / 36

46 / 32 / 16

 

SUSA

05/24/11

48 / 43

--

--

--

57 / 32

 

--

--

PPP

12/08/10

--

47 / 42

51 / 38

54 / 36

--

 

51 / 43

50 / 40


Obama 2008 margin: +10.24

Kerry 2004 margin: +3.48

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +6.15


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Mississippi – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bchmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Barbour

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

11/17/10

40 / 46

---

42 / 48

44 / 48

41 / 51

40 / 54


McCain 2008 margin: +13.17

Bush 2004 margin: +19.69

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.66


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Missouri – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

05/13/11

43 / 45

 

46 / 44

48 / 43

 

46 / 41

(Trump)

44 / 49

PPP

03/09/11

43 / 44

 

44 / 44

48 / 43

 

---

43 / 49

PPP

12/02/10

41 / 47

 

44 / 45

46 / 43

 

---

42 / 49



McCain 2008 margin: +0.13

Bush 2004 margin: +7.20

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.21


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Montana – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/28/11

41 / 49

41 / 48

41 / 45

44 / 48

41 / 46

--

---

PPP

11/17/10

29 / 50

--

41 / 51

45 / 47

---

41 / 51

(Gingrich)

49/44



McCain 2008 margin: +2.38

Bush 2004 margin: +20.50

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.54


------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Nebraska – GOP (see also: NEBRASKA-02)



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

01/31/11

37 / 49

 

40 / 48

44 / 45

---

38 / 51


McCain 2008 margin: +14.93

Bush 2004 margin: +33.22

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nevada – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Trump

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

04/28/11

43 / 46

---

46 / 42

50 / 39

42 / 34 / 20

44 / 30 / 21

45 / 43

47 / 41

PPP

01/07/11

47 / 46

---

51 / 40

52/39

----

51 / 41

---


Obama 2008 margin: +12.49

Bush 2004 margin: +2.59

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: + 9.94


----------------------------------------------------------------

New Hampshire – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Trump

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UNH

04/28/11

43 / 50

---

----

---

45 /38

46 / 42

---

Dartmouth

04/22/11

39 / 47

---

----

54 / 27

28 / 48

47 / 27

41 / 25

42 / 23

45 / 37

51 / 29

PPP

04/06/11

47 / 46

---

52 / 39

56 / 34

51 / 37

52 / 38

---

Magellan

02/14/11

48 / 44

---

56 / 33

57 / 34

---

51 / 38

---


Obama 2008 margin: +9.61

Kerry 2004 margin: +1.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +11.34

------------------------------------------------------------------

New Jersey- DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg

06/30/11

 

 

 

56 / 33

(Christie)

 

RAS

05/27/11

49 / 43

--

--

49 / 44

(Christie)

 

PPP

01/11/11

52 / 37

54 / 37

59 / 29

55 / 38

53/36


Obama 2008 margin: +15.53

Kerry 2004 margin: +6.68

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +3.43


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Mexico- DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

other

Gingrich.

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/29/11

49 / 42

52 / 37

51 / 36

56 / 36

52 / 36

46 / 43

(Johnson)

---

 

PPP

02/09/11

53 / 37

--

--

62 / 33

--

51 / 36

56 / 35

55 / 36


Obama 2008 margin: +15.13

Bush 2004 margin: +0.79

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +4.10




---------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Carolina – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Cain

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Huckabee

Trump

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/13/11

45 / 44

---

52 / 38

48 / 37

47 / 40

50 / 40

--

--

PPP

05/25/11

46 / 43

---

52 / 40

--

--

50 / 42

47 / 46

52 / 35

PPP

04/26/11

47 / 44

---

52 / 40

--

--

49 / 45

48 / 47

51 / 39

PPP

03/23/11

44 / 42

---

51 / 40

--

--

47 / 42

45 / 45

 

PPP

02/23/11

47 / 44

---

51 / 41

 

 

48 / 44

46 / 47

 

PPP

01/25/11

47 / 44

---

50 / 41

 

 

50 / 44

49 / 45

 

PPP

12/22/10

46 / 43

---

52 / 38

 

 

48 / 42

45 / 46

 

PPP

11/29/10

47 / 46

---

51 / 42

 

 

49 / 43

48 / 45

 



Obama 2008 margin: +0.33

Bush 2004 margin: +12.44

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ohio - DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

05/24/11

46 / 42

---

---

50 / 40

49 / 40

48 / 38

---

Quinnipiac

03/24/11

--

---

---

--

--

41 / 34

--

PPP

03/18/11

46 / 40

---

---

52 / 36

50 / 38

----

48 / 41

Quinnipiac

01/20/11

--

---

---

--

--

44 / 39

--

PPP

12/14/10

44 / 42

---

---

49 / 42

47 / 41

----

45 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +4.58

Bush 2004 margin: +2.11

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.15


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oregon – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

Gingrich.

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/23/11

50 / 38

53 / 35

52 / 34

57 / 35

53 / 32

---

 


Obama 2008 margin: +16.35

Kerry 2004 margin: +4.16

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.58


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pennsylvania – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quinnipiac

06/15/11

47 / 40

---

---

---

---

49 / 38

(Santorum)

 

PPP

04/12/11

42 / 43

---

---

50 / 39

47 / 39

45 / 43

45 / 44

Muhlenberg

03/07/11

43 / 36

---

---

53 / 35

----

37 / 33

44 / 34

PPP

01/06/11

46 / 42

 

 

51 / 36

50 / 40

----

47 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +10.31

Kerry 2004 margin: +2.50

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.25

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Rhode Island – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

02/28/11

54 / 37

---

60 / 27

65 / 24

----

56 / 31



Obama 2008 margin: +27.81

Kerry 2004 margin: +20.75

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +16.23


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

South Carolina – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/10/11

41 / 50

---

42 / 42

46 / 44

48 / 43

43 / 40

44 / 47

(DeMint)

 

PPP

02/03/11

42 / 49

---

43 / 49

44 / 43

47 / 41

 

45 / 47

(DeMint)

43 / 49


McCain 2008 margin: +8.98

Bush 2004 margin: +17.08

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +7.47


---------------------------------------------------------------

South Dakota – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

02/01/11

40 / 46

---

44 / 42

48 / 40

37 /57

41 / 47


McCain 2008 margin: +8.41

Bush 2004 margin: +21.47

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +13.31


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tennessee – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vanderbilt

06/21/11

37.0 / 34.7

36.7 / 28.1

36.7 / 28.1

42.5 / 29.0

38.1 / 26.8

---

PPP

02/17/11

41 / 48

 

43 / 46

45 / 45

---

41 / 53


McCain 2008 margin: +15.06

Bush 2004 margin: +14.27

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Texas – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Cain

Other

Gingrich.

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/29/11

42 / 50

44 / 47

46 /44

43 /43

40 /45

(Paul)

47 /45

(Perry)

---

 

PPP

01/20/11

42 / 49

--

46 /47

---

45 / 45

(Perry)

43 / 48

39 / 55


McCain 2008 margin: +11.76

Bush 2004 margin: +22.86

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.49


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Virginia – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bchmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Trump

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quinnipiac

06/30/11

 

 

 

 

 

43 / 41

(generic)

 

PPP

05/10/11

51 / 40

 

54 / 37

55 / 40

52 / 32

51 / 43

52 / 43

WAPO

05/09/11

50 / 44

 

----

59 / 33

58 / 32

54 / 36

52 / 44

PPP

03/02/11

48 / 42

 

51 / 39

54 / 35

 

----

51 / 43

PPP

11/16/10

48 / 43

 

52 / 41

51 / 40

 

----

49 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +6.30

Bush 2004 margin: +8.20

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.14


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington –DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

05/20/11

51 / 40

54 / 36

57 / 34

58 / 31

53 / 39


Obama 2008 margin: +17.08

Kerry 2004 margin: +7.18

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.97


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

West Virginia – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

01/27/11

37 / 50

---

39 / 49

42 / 46

---

36 / 54


McCain 2008 margin: +13.09

Bush 2004 margin: +12.86

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.81


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wisconsin – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

05/26/11

51 / 39

53 / 35

55 / 36

50 / 43

 

PPP

03/03/11

48 / 38

51 / 39

54 / 35

49 / 40

48 / 41



Obama 2008 margin: +13.90

Kerry 2004 margin: +0.38

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.83


------------------------------------------------------------------


USA at large



New Table as of 06/27/2011, with Trump and Huckabee sorted out, Gingirch lacking data, Bachmann in:


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

other

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YouGov/Economist

07/01/11

46 / 43

---

--

---

---

46 / 36

(Huntsman)

Marist/McClatchy

06/28/11

46 / 42

49 / 37

47 / 33

56 / 30

---

48 / 41

(Giuliani)


48 / 39

(Perry)

YouGov/Economist

06/27/11

--

47 / 39

--

--

--

43 / 39

(generic D / R)


46 / 36

(Huntsman)

Dem Corps

06/27/11

47 / 45

 

--

--

--

--




Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

other

Trump

Huckabee

RAS

06/21/11

--

--

--

--

--

43 / 45

(generic R)

 

 

NBC/WSJ

06/15/11

49 / 43

---

50 / 37

---

---

45 / 40

(generic R)

---

---

YouGov/Economist

06/15/11

46 / 40

52 / 35

--

50 / 36

--

---

--

--

PPP

06/15/11

47 / 45

52 / 39

50 /39

52 / 38

48 / 38

--

 

 

Farleigh-Dickinson

06/10/11

45 / 39

50 / 30

56 / 29

---

47 / 33

50 / 34 (Christie)

51 / 32

(Bachmann)

53 / 33

48 / 35

(Ron Paul)

 

 

Fox

06/08/11

48 / 41

53 / 34

50 / 32

56 / 35

 

47 / 43

(Giuiliani)

49 / 34

(Christie)

 

 

Quinnipiac

06/07/11

47 / 41

 

48 / 36

53 / 36

 

48 / 34

 

 

Ipsos/Reuters

06/07/11

51 / 38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ABC News

06/06/11

47 / 47

52 / 42

51 / 40

56 / 39

 

50 / 40

52 / 39

 

 

Dem Corps

06/02/11

48 / 44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YouGov

06/02/11

47 / 38

 

 

54 / 37

 

47 / 39

 

 

PPP

05/26/11

49 / 42

51 / 37

---

54 / 37

 

---

---

---

Rasmussen

05/19/11

 

 

 

 

 

43 / 35

45 / 28

49 / 27

45 / 32

 

 

YouGov

05/20/11

45 / 42

51 / 35

 

 

 

48 / 36

 

 

Suffolk

05/18/11

46 / 43

52 / 38

47 / 31

--

 

50 / 30

48 / 30

--

 

GW/Battleground

05/16/11

52 / 41

 

52 / 39

 

 

 

 

 

YouGov

05/12/11

---

52 / 32

----

----

 

-----

51 / 33

45 / 39

PPP

05/11/11

47 / 42

52 / 38

----

54 / 37

 

48 / 34

46 / 33 / 16

53 / 35

49 / 42

Ipsos/Reuters

05/11/11

51 / 38

53 / 35

 

54 / 35

 

51 / 33

51 / 30

51 / 33

57 / 30

51 / 39

Newsweek / Daily Beast

05/04/11

44 / 44

 

 

53 / 35

 

 

55 / 30

46 / 43

YouGov

05/01/11

46 / 37

---

 

52 / 34

 

---

49 / 32

---

Quinnipiac

04/27/11

--

--

 

--

 

52 / 39

--

--

Marist

04/24/11

46 / 45

---

 

56 / 34

 

---

54 / 38

48 / 43

WAPO-ABC

04/19/11

49 / 45

54 / 39

 

56 / 37

 

52 / 39

52 / 38

52 / 39

50 / 44

RAS

04/18/11

--

--

 

--

 

--

49 / 34

--

Dem Corps

04/15/11

46 / 48

---

 

---

 

---

 

--

PPP

04/14/11

47 / 41

52 / 38

 

54 / 36

 

48 / 38

48 / 39

 

48 / 43

FDU

03/31/11

43 / 42

52 / 37

 

54 / 34

 

48 / 34

46 / 40

 

46 / 46

PPP

03/17/11

47 / 42

50 / 39

 

53 / 38

 

47 / 33

 

48 / 43

PPP

02/16/11

46 / 41

49 / 40

 

52 / 40

 

48 / 39

 

47 / 44

Democracy Corps

02/07-09/11

48 / 46

---

 

---

 

---

 

47 /47

RAS

02/06/11

44 / 42

47 / 39

 

49 / 36

 

40/43

 

43 /43

PPP

01/20/11

48/43

51/39

 

55 / 38

 

51/33

 

49 /44

Marist

01/14/11

51 / 38

--

 

56 / 30

 

 

 

50 / 38

Zogby

01/03/11

41 / 41

----

 

45 / 38

 

40/43

 

42 /39

WAPO

12/17/10

---

---

 

54 / 39

 

---

 

---

WAPO

12/17/10

 

 

 

47/ 31

 

18

 

 

WSJ

 

47 / 40

 

 

55 / 33

 

47/ 27

 

 

Politico

12/15/10

40/ 33

----

 

48 / 33

 

38/37

 

40 /34


** the three-man match-up Obama/Palin/Bloomberg is not in the average.



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