14 July 2011

Wow.

Leroy Petry. American hero. Wow. God bless him and his family.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


----------------------------

And the interview:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Ron Paul has put out a high quality ad in IA and NH. It is worth the view, even if you do not agree with his views.

06 July 2011

New UNH/WMUR Poll of New Hampshire.

I just posted ALL of the state polling tables for PREZ for up to End of June just yesterday, and in between, another NH poll came in.

UNH/WMUR just put out a second prez poll for NH (the first was in April 2011) and again their polling shows Romney leading President Obama in this state. And I bet PPP will have one out in the next two days.

This is the third poll in a row with such results for Mitt Romney.

Here a graphic of all those numbers:


Here we see 23 matchups within 5 polls. Obama has won 19 matchups, one "other GOP" won one poll (Colin Powell) and Romney has now won 3 match-ups, the last three in a row. So, a composite of this state would indicate that it is still BLUE. But an individual EC landscape map with just Obama and Romney would now color this state RED. Now, some could claim that there are other states, like SC, where Obama is leading some of the GOP pack. But in none of those cases thus far have three polls in such a short time frame produced the same results.


Note please that Romney has actually lost on percentage and margin over April and that President Obama has improved his percentage and margin over Pawlenty. Neither Palin nor Trump were ever competitive here. But Romney's current margin is bigger than Kerry's winning margin in 2008 and Bush's winning margin in 2000. Not only that, the WMUR polling in NH in 2008 was pretty solid. I would not be poo-pooing these polls.


This is currently the ONLY state in the Union to show such mixed results resulting in a pick-up advantage for the GOP, but the trend in NH is unqestionably to Mitt Romney at this time. That being said, Romney is running weaker in GA than McCain did, so Obama is surely looking to aggressively pursue this state and its 16 electoral votes. Should PPP also put out a poll of NH showing similar results, then that would only serve to confirm what the other three polls are showing: that President Obama is weak in NH.

The News day in pictures - Screenshots from July 6, 2011

Once again, a quick look at the daily news as it is being presented. As usual, of the 6 "major" news outlets, one has chosen a main headline that is completely different from the rest. Betcha can guess who that is...

ABC: Casey Verdict. Smaller headline over Navy Ship (see WAPO)



CBS: Casey Verdict, Loughner, Perry (TX)


CNN: Strauss-Kahn, Casey Verdict, Debt Talks


MSNBC: Terror Arrest, Yellowstone and Flooding, Casey Verdict.


 WAPO: Terror arrest (Navy Ship), Debt Talks, Casey Trial




And then there is FOX: well, see for yourself. Hmmmm....

FOX has decided to speculate that the big unions, which have always supported Democratic Presidential candidates, may defect from Obama. Yeah, right.

05 July 2011

All PREZ polling for 2012 at present (July 4, 2011) - state and national

Polls from all 50 states and national, alphabetical:

July 5, 2011


USA at large


New Table as of 06/27/2011, with Trump and Huckabee sorted out, Gingirch lacking data, Bachmann in:


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

other

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YouGov/Economist

07/01/11

46 / 43

---

--

---

---

46 / 36

(Huntsman)

Marist/McClatchy

06/28/11

46 / 42

49 / 37

47 / 33

56 / 30

---

48 / 41

(Giuliani)


48 / 39

(Perry)

YouGov/Economist

06/27/11

--

47 / 39

--

--

--

43 / 39

(generic D / R)


46 / 36

(Huntsman)

Dem Corps

06/27/11

47 / 45

 

--

--

--

--




Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

other

Trump

Huckabee

RAS

06/21/11

--

--

--

--

--

43 / 45

(generic R)

 

 

NBC/WSJ

06/15/11

49 / 43

---

50 / 37

---

---

45 / 40

(generic R)

---

---

YouGov/Economist

06/15/11

46 / 40

52 / 35

--

50 / 36

--

---

--

--

PPP

06/15/11

47 / 45

52 / 39

50 /39

52 / 38

48 / 38

--

 

 

Farleigh-Dickinson

06/10/11

45 / 39

50 / 30

56 / 29

---

47 / 33

50 / 34 (Christie)

51 / 32

(Bachmann)

53 / 33

48 / 35

(Ron Paul)

 

 

Fox

06/08/11

48 / 41

53 / 34

50 / 32

56 / 35

 

47 / 43

(Giuiliani)

49 / 34

(Christie)

 

 

Quinnipiac

06/07/11

47 / 41

 

48 / 36

53 / 36

 

48 / 34

 

 

Ipsos/Reuters

06/07/11

51 / 38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ABC News

06/06/11

47 / 47

52 / 42

51 / 40

56 / 39

 

50 / 40

52 / 39

 

 

Dem Corps

06/02/11

48 / 44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YouGov

06/02/11

47 / 38

 

 

54 / 37

 

47 / 39

 

 

PPP

05/26/11

49 / 42

51 / 37

---

54 / 37

 

---

---

---

Rasmussen

05/19/11

 

 

 

 

 

43 / 35

45 / 28

49 / 27

45 / 32

 

 

YouGov

05/20/11

45 / 42

51 / 35

 

 

 

48 / 36

 

 

Suffolk

05/18/11

46 / 43

52 / 38

47 / 31

--

 

50 / 30

48 / 30

--

 

GW/Battleground

05/16/11

52 / 41

 

52 / 39

 

 

 

 

 

YouGov

05/12/11

---

52 / 32

----

----

 

-----

51 / 33

45 / 39

PPP

05/11/11

47 / 42

52 / 38

----

54 / 37

 

48 / 34

46 / 33 / 16

53 / 35

49 / 42

Ipsos/Reuters

05/11/11

51 / 38

53 / 35

 

54 / 35

 

51 / 33

51 / 30

51 / 33

57 / 30

51 / 39

Newsweek / Daily Beast

05/04/11

44 / 44

 

 

53 / 35

 

 

55 / 30

46 / 43

YouGov

05/01/11

46 / 37

---

 

52 / 34

 

---

49 / 32

---

Quinnipiac

04/27/11

--

--

 

--

 

52 / 39

--

--

Marist

04/24/11

46 / 45

---

 

56 / 34

 

---

54 / 38

48 / 43

WAPO-ABC

04/19/11

49 / 45

54 / 39

 

56 / 37

 

52 / 39

52 / 38

52 / 39

50 / 44

RAS

04/18/11

--

--

 

--

 

--

49 / 34

--

Dem Corps

04/15/11

46 / 48

---

 

---

 

---

 

--

PPP

04/14/11

47 / 41

52 / 38

 

54 / 36

 

48 / 38

48 / 39

 

48 / 43

FDU

03/31/11

43 / 42

52 / 37

 

54 / 34

 

48 / 34

46 / 40

 

46 / 46

PPP

03/17/11

47 / 42

50 / 39

 

53 / 38

 

47 / 33

 

48 / 43

PPP

02/16/11

46 / 41

49 / 40

 

52 / 40

 

48 / 39

 

47 / 44

Democracy Corps

02/07-09/11

48 / 46

---

 

---

 

---

 

47 /47

RAS

02/06/11

44 / 42

47 / 39

 

49 / 36

 

40/43

 

43 /43

PPP

01/20/11

48/43

51/39

 

55 / 38

 

51/33

 

49 /44

Marist

01/14/11

51 / 38

--

 

56 / 30

 

 

 

50 / 38

Zogby

01/03/11

41 / 41

----

 

45 / 38

 

40/43

 

42 /39

WAPO

12/17/10

---

---

 

54 / 39

 

---

 

---

WAPO

12/17/10

 

 

 

47/ 31

 

18

 

 

WSJ

 

47 / 40

 

 

55 / 33

 

47/ 27

 

 

Politico

12/15/10

40/ 33

----

 

48 / 33

 

38/37

 

40 /34


** the three-man match-up Obama/Palin/Bloomberg is not in the average.


Alabama – GOP


Pollster

Date

Obama

Romney

Huckabee

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


2008 margin: +21.58

Bush 2004 margin: +25.62

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.25

------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Alaska – GOP



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Pawlenty

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hays

06/28/11

--

--

42 / 36

---

--


McCain 2008 margin: +21.54

Bush 2004 margin: +25.55

GOP combined margin average 1960-2004: +15.80


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arizona - GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

Trump

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

05/03/11

44 / 48

47 / 40

49 / 38

48 / 36

 

46 / 44

PPP

03/02/11

43 / 49

46 / 46

49 / 41

 

---

44 / 48


McCain 2008 margin: +8.48

Bush 2004 margin: +10.47

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +14.60


--------------------------------------------------------------

Arkansas - GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



McCain 2008 margin: +19.85

Bush 2004 margin: +9.76

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.53


----------------------------------------------------------------------

California- DEM



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

02/03/11

56 / 36

 

58 / 34

62 / 31

48/40

54 / 39



Obama 2008 margin: +24.03

Kerry 2004 margin: +9.95

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.96


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colorado – DEM



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

02/08/11

47 / 41

----

53 / 39

55 / 36

 

46 / 35

(generic)

51 / 42



Obama 2008 margin: +8.95
Bush 2004 margin: +4.67
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.41

----------------------------------------------------------------

Connecticut – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quinnipiac

06/15/11

 

 

 

 

 

46 / 35

(generic)



Obama 2008 margin: +22.37

Kerry 2004 margin: +10.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.03


---------------------------------------------------------------

Delaware – DEM


Pollster

Date

Obama

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Obama 2008 margin: +24.98

Kerry 2004 margin: +7.59

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.05


------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DC – DEM


Pollster

Date

Obama

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Obama 2008 margin: +85.92

Kerry 2004 margin: +79.84

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +69.56

Florida – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/24/11

47 / 43

48 / 40

49 / 40

--

52 / 40

48 / 37

 

 

Quinnipiac

05/26/11

--

--

--

--

--

--

44 / 37

 

Suffolk

04/14/11

44 / 43

--

--

47 / 36

52 / 34

 

41 / 28

45 / 30

49 / 34

44 / 41

Sachs / Mason-Dixon

04/11/11

43 / 48

--

--

----

51 / 39

 

48 / 40

44 / 49

Quinnipiac

04/07/11

 

--

--

 

 

 

38 / 41

 

PPP

03/31/11

46 / 44

--

--

50 / 42

52 / 39

 

48 / 45

48 / 42

50 / 43

PPP

12/22/10

46 / 44

--

--

47 / 42

52 / 38

 

48 / 40

49 / 44



Obama 2008 margin: +2.81

Bush 2004 margin: +5.01

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +8.65

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Georgia – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

04/05/11

43 / 46

--

46 / 45

48 / 43

44 / 39

45 / 48

20/20

02/03/11

44 / 50

--

45 / 47

47 / 43

---

45 / 50



McCain 2008 margin: +5.20

Bush 2004 margin: +16.60

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.17


------------------------------------------------------------------


Hawaii – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Obama 2008 margin: +45.26

Kerry 2004 margin: +8.74

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.01


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Idaho – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



McCain 2008 margin: +25.30

Bush 2004 margin: +38.12

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44


------------------------------------------------------------------

Illinois – DEM



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Obama 2008 margin: +25.11

Kerry 2004 margin: +10.34

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.09


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indiana – DEM pick-up



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Obama 2008 margin: +1.03

Bush 2004 margin: +20.68

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +13.29


--------------------------------------------------------------------

Iowa – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Pawlenty

Palin

other

Huckabee

Trump

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/03/11

49 / 40

54 / 33

49 / 37

55 / 35

50 / 32

--

--

PPP

04/21/11

45 / 41

50 / 39

--

53 / 36

43 / 27 / 21

45 / 45

51 / 35

PPP

01/12/11

47 / 41

51 / 38

--

53 / 37

51 / 33

47/ 43

--



Obama 2008 margin: +9.53

Bush 2004 margin: +0.67

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.84


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kansas – GOP



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


McCain 2008 margin: +14.92

Bush 2004 margin: +25.38

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +19.84


------------------------------------------------------------------


Kentucky - GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


McCain 2008 margin: +16.22

Bush 2004 margin: +19.86

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.32


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Louisiana – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


McCain 2008 margin: +18.63

Bush 2004 margin: +14.51

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.64

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Maine – DEM



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

03/11/11

49 / 41

---

53 / 37

57 / 35

----

51 / 39


Obama 2008 margin: +17.32

Kerry 2004 margin: +9.00

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.67


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maryland – DEM



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Obama 2008 margin: +25.44

Kerry 2004 margin: +12.98

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +2.85


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Massachusetts - DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Cain

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/10/11

57 / 37

59 / 28

63 / 27

60 / 27

63 / 27

--

--

PPP

12/03/10

52 / 43

 

57 / 33

 

61 / 32

51 / 43

57 / 33


Obama 2008 margin: +25.81

Kerry 2004 margin: +25.16

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +14.75


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michigan- DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

03/25/11

48 / 41

 

53 / 37

55 / 35

49 / 38

50 /41

PPP

12/07/10

47 / 43

 

52 / 37

56 / 35

49 / 38

51 /39


Obama 2008 margin: +16.44

Kerry 2004 margin: +3.42

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.42


----------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota – DEM


Pollster

Date

Pawlenty

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

Bachmann

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUSA

06/23/11

46 / 46

--

--

--

53 / 39

--

--

--

PPP

06/08/11

51 / 43

51 / 36

54 / 36

56 / 36

56 / 35

51 / 36

46 / 32 / 16

 

SUSA

05/24/11

48 / 43

--

--

--

57 / 32

 

--

--

PPP

12/08/10

--

47 / 42

51 / 38

54 / 36

--

 

51 / 43

50 / 40


Obama 2008 margin: +10.24

Kerry 2004 margin: +3.48

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +6.15


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Mississippi – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bchmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Barbour

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

11/17/10

40 / 46

 

42 / 48

44 / 48

41 / 51

40 / 54


McCain 2008 margin: +13.17

Bush 2004 margin: +19.69

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.66


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Missouri – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

05/13/11

43 / 45

 

46 / 44

48 / 43

 

46 / 41

(Trump)

44 / 49

PPP

03/09/11

43 / 44

 

44 / 44

48 / 43

 

---

43 / 49

PPP

12/02/10

41 / 47

 

44 / 45

46 / 43

 

---

42 / 49



McCain 2008 margin: +0.13

Bush 2004 margin: +7.20

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.21


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Montana – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/28/11

41 / 49

41 / 48

41 / 45

44 / 48

41 / 46

--

---

PPP

11/17/10

29 / 50

--

41 / 51

45 / 47

---

41 / 51

(Gingrich)

49/44



McCain 2008 margin: +2.38

Bush 2004 margin: +20.50

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.54


------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Nebraska – GOP (see also: NEBRASKA-02)



Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

01/31/11

37 / 49

 

40 / 48

44 / 45

---

38 / 51


McCain 2008 margin: +14.93

Bush 2004 margin: +33.22

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nevada – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Trump

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

04/28/11

43 / 46

---

46 / 42

50 / 39

42 / 34 / 20

44 / 30 / 21

45 / 43

47 / 41

PPP

01/07/11

47 / 46

---

51 / 40

52/39

----

51 / 41

---


Obama 2008 margin: +12.49

Bush 2004 margin: +2.59

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: + 9.94


----------------------------------------------------------------

New Hampshire – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Trump

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UNH

04/28/11

43 / 50

---

----

---

45 /38

46 / 42

---

Dartmouth

04/22/11

39 / 47

---

----

54 / 27

28 / 48

47 / 27

41 / 25

42 / 23

45 / 37

51 / 29

PPP

04/06/11

47 / 46

---

52 / 39

56 / 34

51 / 37

52 / 38

---

Magellan

02/14/11

48 / 44

---

56 / 33

57 / 34

---

51 / 38

---


Obama 2008 margin: +9.61

Kerry 2004 margin: +1.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +11.34

------------------------------------------------------------------

New Jersey- DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg

06/30/11

 

 

 

56 / 33

(Christie)

 

RAS

05/27/11

49 / 43

--

--

49 / 44

(Christie)

 

PPP

01/11/11

52 / 37

54 / 37

59 / 29

55 / 38

53/36


Obama 2008 margin: +15.53

Kerry 2004 margin: +6.68

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +3.43


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Mexico- DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlwnty

Palin

Cain

other

Gingrich.

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/29/11

49 / 42

52 / 37

51 / 36

56 / 36

52 / 36

46 / 43

(Johnson)

---

 

PPP

02/09/11

53 / 37

--

--

62 / 33

--

51 / 36

56 / 35

55 / 36


Obama 2008 margin: +15.13

Bush 2004 margin: +0.79

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +4.10


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York- DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Obama 2008 margin: +26.86

Kerry 2004 margin: +18.29

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +5.42


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Carolina – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Cain

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Huckabee

Trump

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/13/11

45 / 44

---

52 / 38

48 / 37

47 / 40

50 / 40

--

--

PPP

05/25/11

46 / 43

---

52 / 40

--

--

50 / 42

47 / 46

52 / 35

PPP

04/26/11

47 / 44

---

52 / 40

--

--

49 / 45

48 / 47

51 / 39

PPP

03/23/11

44 / 42

---

51 / 40

--

--

47 / 42

45 / 45

 

PPP

02/23/11

47 / 44

---

51 / 41

 

 

48 / 44

46 / 47

 

PPP

01/25/11

47 / 44

---

50 / 41

 

 

50 / 44

49 / 45

 

PPP

12/22/10

46 / 43

---

52 / 38

 

 

48 / 42

45 / 46

 

PPP

11/29/10

47 / 46

---

51 / 42

 

 

49 / 43

48 / 45

 



Obama 2008 margin: +0.33

Bush 2004 margin: +12.44

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Dakota – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


McCain 2008 margin: +8.65

Bush 2004 margin: +27.36

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +18.36


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ohio - DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

05/24/11

46 / 42

---

---

50 / 40

49 / 40

48 / 38

---

Quinnipiac

03/24/11

--

---

---

--

--

41 / 34

--

PPP

03/18/11

46 / 40

---

---

52 / 36

50 / 38

----

48 / 41

Quinnipiac

01/20/11

--

---

---

--

--

44 / 39

--

PPP

12/14/10

44 / 42

---

---

49 / 42

47 / 41

----

45 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +4.58

Bush 2004 margin: +2.11

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.15


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oklahoma – FIREWALL GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


McCain 2008 margin: +31.29%

Bush 2004 margin: +31.23

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +16.03


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oregon – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Cain

Gingrich.

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/23/11

50 / 38

53 / 35

52 / 34

57 / 35

53 / 32

---

 


Obama 2008 margin: +16.35

Kerry 2004 margin: +4.16

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.58


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pennsylvania – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Palin

Gingrich.

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quinnipiac

06/15/11

47 / 40

---

---

---

---

49 / 38

(Santorum)

 

PPP

04/12/11

42 / 43

---

---

50 / 39

47 / 39

45 / 43

45 / 44

Muhlenberg

03/07/11

43 / 36

---

---

53 / 35

----

37 / 33

44 / 34

PPP

01/06/11

46 / 42

 

 

51 / 36

50 / 40

----

47 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +10.31

Kerry 2004 margin: +2.50

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.25

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Rhode Island – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

02/28/11

54 / 37

---

60 / 27

65 / 24

----

56 / 31



Obama 2008 margin: +27.81

Kerry 2004 margin: +20.75

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +16.23


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

South Carolina – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Palin

Cain

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/10/11

41 / 50

---

42 / 42

46 / 44

48 / 43

43 / 40

44 / 47

(DeMint)

 

PPP

02/03/11

42 / 49

---

43 / 49

44 / 43

47 / 41

 

45 / 47

(DeMint)

43 / 49


McCain 2008 margin: +8.98

Bush 2004 margin: +17.08

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +7.47


---------------------------------------------------------------

South Dakota – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

02/01/11

40 / 46

---

44 / 42

48 / 40

37 /57

41 / 47


McCain 2008 margin: +8.41

Bush 2004 margin: +21.47

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +13.31


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tennessee – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Pawlenty

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vanderbilt

06/21/11

37.0 / 34.7

36.7 / 28.1

36.7 / 28.1

42.5 / 29.0

38.1 / 26.8

---

PPP

02/17/11

41 / 48

 

43 / 46

45 / 45

---

41 / 53


McCain 2008 margin: +15.06

Bush 2004 margin: +14.27

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Texas – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Palin

Cain

Other

Gingrich.

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

06/29/11

42 / 50

44 / 47

46 /44

43 /43

40 /45

(Paul)

47 /45

(Perry)

---

 

PPP

01/20/11

42 / 49

--

46 /47

---

45 / 45

(Perry)

43 / 48

39 / 55


McCain 2008 margin: +11.76

Bush 2004 margin: +22.86

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.49


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Utah – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


McCain 2008 margin: +28.02

Bush 2004 margin: +45.54

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +26.59


Victory for any GOP candidate is all but guaranteed in this the no. 1 conservative state in the union.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Vermont – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Obama 2008 margin: +37.01

Kerry 2004 margin: +20.14

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +6.93


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Virginia – DEM pick-up


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bchmann

Gingrich.

Palin

Trump

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quinnipiac

06/30/11

 

 

 

 

 

43 / 41

(generic)

 

PPP

05/10/11

51 / 40

 

54 / 37

55 / 40

52 / 32

51 / 43

52 / 43

WAPO

05/09/11

50 / 44

 

----

59 / 33

58 / 32

54 / 36

52 / 44

PPP

03/02/11

48 / 42

 

51 / 39

54 / 35

 

----

51 / 43

PPP

11/16/10

48 / 43

 

52 / 41

51 / 40

 

----

49 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +6.30

Bush 2004 margin: +8.20

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.14


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington –DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

05/20/11

51 / 40

54 / 36

57 / 34

58 / 31

53 / 39


Obama 2008 margin: +17.08

Kerry 2004 margin: +7.18

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.97


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

West Virginia – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

01/27/11

37 / 50

---

39 / 49

42 / 46

---

36 / 54


McCain 2008 margin: +13.09

Bush 2004 margin: +12.86

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.81


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wisconsin – DEM


Pollster

Date

Romney

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Huckabee

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP

05/26/11

51 / 39

53 / 35

55 / 36

50 / 43

 

PPP

03/03/11

48 / 38

51 / 39

54 / 35

49 / 40

48 / 41



Obama 2008 margin: +13.90

Kerry 2004 margin: +0.38

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.83


------------------------------------------------------------------

Wyoming – GOP


Pollster

Date

Romney

Bachmann

Gingrich.

Palin

other

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


McCain 2008 margin: +32.24

Bush 2004 margin: +39.79

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +20.97