13 June 2011

Parstisan ranking tables: comparison IL, IN, OH and PA

A question was raised as to how to interpret these tables. Here is one possibility, using four neighboring states from the midwest.
Here is one application of such.

Illinois = GREEN

Pennsylvania = YELLOW

Ohio = Blue

Indiana = Orange

Rank

2008

Margin '08

2004

Margin - 04

2000

Margin '00

1996

Margin '96

1992

Margin '92

1988

Margin '88

1 / 51

DC

85.92%

DC

79.84%

DC

76.20%

DC

75.85%

DC

75.55%

DC

68.34%

2 / 50

HI

45.26%

MA

25.16%

RI

29.08%

MA

33.39%

MA

18.52%

RI

11.71%

3 / 49

VT

37.01%

RI

20.75%

MA

27.30%

RI

32.89%

RI

18.02%

IA

10.22%

4 / 48

RI

27.81%

VT

20.14%

NY

24.98%

NY

28.86%

AR

17.72%

HI

9.52%

5 / 47

NY

26.86%

NY

18.29%

HI

18.33%

HI

25.29%

NY

15.85%

MA

7.85%

6 / 46

MA

25.81%

MD

12.98%

CT

17.47%

VT

22.26%

VT

15.70%

MN

7.02%

7 / 45

MD

25.44%

CT

10.37%

MD

16.39%

ME

20.86%

IL

14.24%

WV

4.74%

8 / 44

IL

25.11%

IL

10.34%

NJ

15.83%

CT

18.14%

MD

14.18%

OR

4.67%

9 / 43

DE

24.98%

CA

9.95%

DE

13.06%

NJ

17.86%

CA

13.39%

NY

4.10%

10 / 42

CA

24.03%

ME

9.00%

IL

12.01%

IL

17.51%

WV

13.02%

WI

3.62%

11 / 41

CT

22.37%

HI

8.74%

CA

11.80%

AR

16.94%

MN

11.63%

WA

1.59%

12 / 40

ME

17.32%

DE

7.59%

VT

9.94%

MN

16.14%

WA

11.44%

IL

2.08%

13 / 39

WA

17.08%

WA

7.18%

WA

5.58%

MD

15.99%

HI

11.40%

PA

2.32%

14 / 38

MI

16.44%

NJ

6.68%

MI

5.13%

DE

15.25%

MO

10.15%

MD

2.91%

15 / 37

OR

16.35%

OR

4.16%

ME

5.11%

WV

14.75%

OR

9.95%

VT

3.52%

16 / 36

NJ

15.53%

MN

3.48%

PA

4.17%

MI

13.21%

PA

9.02%

CA

3.57%

17 / 35

NM

15.13%

MI

3.42%

MN

2.40%

CA

12.89%

NM

8.56%

MO

3.98%

18 / 34

WI

13.90%

PA

2.50%

OR

0.44%

WA

12.54%

ME

8.33%

NM

4.96%

19 / 33

NV

12.49%

NH

1.37%

IA

0.31%

LA

12.07%

DE

8.20%

CT

5.10%

20 / 32

PA

10.31%

WI

0.38%

WI

0.22%

IA

10.34%

MI

7.40%

MT

5.87%

21 / 31

MN

10.24%

IA

0.67%

NM

0.06%

WI

10.33%

CT

6.43%

SD

6.34%

22 /30

NH

9.61%

NM

0.79%

FL

0.01%

NH

9.95%

IA

6.01%

CO

7.78%

23 / 29

IA

9.53%

OH

2.11%

NH

1.27%

PA

9.20%

TN

4.65%

MI

7.90%

24 / 28

CO

8.95%

NV

2.59%

MO

3.34%

OR

8.09%

LA

4.61%

LA

10.21%

25 / 27

VA

6.30%

CO

4.67%

OH

3.51%

NM

7.33%

WI

4.35%

OH

10.85%

26 / 26

OH

4.58%

FL

5.01%

NV

3.55%

OH

6.36%

CO

4.26%

ME

11.45%

27 / 25

FL

2.81%

MO

7.20%

TN

3.86%

MO

6.30%

KY

3.21%

KY

11.64%

28 / 24

IN

1.03%

VA

8.20%

AR

5.44%

FL

5.70%

NV

2.63%

DE

12.40%

29 / 23

NC

0.33%

AR

9.76%

AZ

6.28%

TN

2.41%

MT

2.51%

TX

12.60%

30 / 22

MO

0.13%

AZ

10.47%

WV

6.32%

AZ

2.22%

NJ

2.37%

ND

13.06%

31 / 21

MT

2.38%

NC

12.43%

LA

7.68%

NV

1.02%

OH

1.83%

KS

13.23%

32 / 20

GA

5.20%

WV

12.86%

VA

8.04%

KY

0.96%

NH

1.22%

NJ

13.64%

33 / 19

SD

8.41%

TN

14.27%

CO

8.36%

GA

1.17%

GA

0.59%

AR

14.18%

34 / 18

AZ

8.48%

LA

14.51%

GA

11.69%

CO

1.37%

NC

0.79%

NC

16.26%

35 / 17

ND

8.65%

GA

16.60%

NC

12.83%

VA

1.96%

FL

1.89%

TN

16.34%

36 / 16

SC

8.98%

SC

17.08%

AL

14.88%

MT

2.88%

AZ

1.95%

OK

16.65%

37 / 15

TX

11.76%

MS

19.69%

KY

15.13%

SD

3.46%

TX

3.48%

AL

19.30%

38 / 14

WV

13.09%

KY

19.86%

IN

15.63%

NC

4.69%

SD

3.52%

IN

20.16%

39 / 13

MS

13.17%

MT

20.50%

SC

15.93%

TX

4.93%

VA

4.37%

GA

20.25%

40 / 12

KS

14.92%

IN

20.68%

MS

16.91%

MS

5.13%

KS

5.14%

VA

20.50%

41 / 11

NE

14.93%

SD

21.47%

KS

20.80%

IN

5.58%

WY

5.60%

MS

20.82%

42 / 10

TN

15.06%

TX

22.86%

TX

21.32%

SC

6.04%

IN

6.11%

NV

20.94%

43 / 9

KY

16.22%

KS

25.38%

OK

21.88%

ND

6.81%

AL

6.77%

NE

20.96%

44 / 8

LA

18.63%

AK

25.55%

SD

22.73%

AL

6.97%

SC

8.15%

AZ

21.21%

45 / 7

AR

19.85%

AL

25.62%

MT

25.07%

OK

7.81%

OK

8.62%

FL

22.36%

46 / 6

AK

21.54%

ND

27.36%

ND

27.60%

WY

12.98%

MS

8.92%

WY

22.52%

47 / 5

AL

21.58%

OK

31.14%

NE

28.99%

AK

17.53%

AK

9.17%

AK

23.32%

48 / 4

ID

25.30%

NE

33.22%

AK

30.95%

KS

18.21%

ND

12.03%

SC

23.92%

49 / 3

UT

28.02%

ID

38.12%

ID

39.53%

ID

18.54%

ID

13.61%

ID

26.07%

50 / 2

OK

31.29%

WY

39.79%

WY

40.06%

NE

18.70%

NE

17.18%

NH

26.16%

51 / 1

WY

32.24%

UT

45.54%

UT

40.49%

UT

21.07%

UT

16.03%

UT

34.17%

NATIONAL

Obama

7.26%

Bush 43

2.46%

Bush 43

0.52%

Clinton

8.52%

Clinton

5.56%

Bush 41

7.73%

Nat. Swing

 

D +9.52%

 

R +2.98%

 

R +8.00%

 

D +2.96%

 

D +13.29%

 

DEM +10.49%


Over these six cycles we see a definite, identifiable pattern in these four states; it is visually easy to identify when the states are higlighted in contrasting colors. Regardless whether a Republican or a Democrat has won the GE, these 4 states have maintained their positions relative to each other in the rankings and the most stable state in the rankings is Ohio. This is key for predicting results in the future, i.e., 2012.

Illinois: between 2008-1988: between position „7 / 45“ and „11 / 41“. Between 1988-2008, the most democratic of these four states. Always ahead of PA by varying margins.

Pennsylvania: 2008-1988: between position „20 / 32“ and „13 / 39“. Between 1988-2008, the second most democratic of these four states. Always ahead of OH by between 5%-8% in margin. If a democratic candidate is shown losing PA, then he is guaranteed to be losing OH.

Ohio: 2008-1988 – the most stable bellwether state in terms of position in the rankings: between „26 / 26“ and „23 / 29“ in the rankings 5 of six cycles, with one exception of „31 / 21“ in 1992. Since 1964, Ohio has always gone with the winner, mostly with a margin for the GOP slightly ABOVE the national margin and a margin for the DEMS slightly BELOW their national margin. Exception: 2004. A democratic candidate shown to be winning by a solid margin in OH is guaranteed to win PA and IL.

Indiana: 2008-1988: between position „42 / 10“ and position „38 / 14“ in the rankings for 5 of 6 cycles, with one very major exception in 2008, where it moved up to position „28 / 24“ and was won by Obama. This is the state that is most likely to return to the GOP in 2012, despite the fact that Obama won NC with a lesser margin, for the partisan shift require to shift this state (DEM +21.73%) was enormous. The GOP only needs to shift about 1.5 points in this state to win it back. If polls show Obama losing IN badly, then PA and OH are in play. If polls show him still ahead, then he will win OH and PA.

Now, let's take a look at 1984-1964 and see what has changed:


Rank

1984

Margin '84

1980

Margin '80

1976

Margin '76

1972

Margin '72

1968

Margin '68

1964

Margin '64

1 / 51

DC

71.66%

DC

61.49%

DC

65.12%

DC

56.54%

DC

63.64%

DC

71.00%

2 / 50

MN

0.18%

GA

14.81%

GA

33.78%

MA

8.97%

RI

32.25%

RI

61.74%

3 / 49

MA

2.79%

RI

10.47%

AR

30.01%

MN

5.51%

MA

30.12%

HI

57.52%

4 / 48

RI

3.65%

WV

4.51%

WV

16.14%

RI

6.19%

HI

21.12%

MA

52.74%

5 / 47

MD

5.49%

MN

3.94%

MA

15.67%

SD

8.63%

MN

12.53%

ME

37.68%

6 / 46

PA

7.35%

MD

2.96%

AL

13.11%

WI

9.67%

ME

12.23%

NY

37.25%

7 / 45

IA

7.39%

HI

1.90%

SC

13.04%

OR

10.12%

MS

40.44%

(9.50%)

WV

35.87%

8 / 44

NY

8.01%

MA

0.15%

TN

13.00%

CA

13.46%

WV

8.82%

CT

35.72%

9 / 43

WI

9.18%

TN

0.29%

MN

12.87%

MI

14.39%

MI

6.73%

MI

33.61%

10 / 42

WV

10.51%

AR

0.61%

RI

11.28%

IA

17.13%

NY

5.46%

VT

32.61%

11 / 41

HI

11.28%

AL

1.30%

NC

11.05%

NY

17.34%

CT

5.16%

AK

31.82%

12 / 40

OR

12.17%

MS

1.32%

KY

7.19%

WA

18.28%

LA

20.11%

(4.74%)

NJ

31.75%

13 / 39

IL

12.88%

KY

1.46%

MD

6.07%

CT

18.44%

AL

47.13%

(4.73%)

MD

30.94%

14 / 38

WA

12.97%

SC

1.53%

LA

5.78%

IL

18.52%

PA

3.57%

PA

30.22%

15 / 37

CA

16.25%

NC

2.12%

DE

5.41%

PA

19.98%

WA

2.11%

KY

28.36%

16 / 36

TN

16.27%

DE

2.33%

FL

5.28%

MT

20.08%

MD

1.64%

MO

28.10%

17 / 35

VT

17.11%

NY

2.67%

NY

4.43%

DE

20.41%

TX

1.27%

MN

27.76%

18 / 34

OH

18.76%

ME

3.36%

MO

3.63%

OH

21.56%

AR

7.64%

(0.68%)

OR

27.75%

19 / 33

MI

18.99%

WI

4.72%

TX

3.17%

ME

22.98%

MO

1.13%

NH

27.28%

20 / 32

DE

19.85%

LA

5.45%

PA

2.66%

AK

23.51%

NJ

2.13%

TX

26.82%

21 / 31

MO

20.05%

VT

5.96%

HI

2.53%

MD

23.90%

OH

2.28%

OH

25.89%

22 /30

GA

20.39%

MI

6.49%

MS

1.88%

NM

24.49%

AK

2.64%

WA

24.59%

23 / 29

NM

20.48%

MO

6.81%

WI

1.68%

MO

24.59%

IL

2.92%

WI

24.35%

24 / 28

KY

20.66%

PA

7.11%

OH

0.27%

NJ

24.80%

CA

3.08%

IA

23.97%

25 / 27

NJ

20.89%

IL

7.93%

OR

0.17%

HI

24.96%

DE

3.51%

CO

23.07%

26 / 26

CT

21.90%

CT

9.63%

ME

0.84%

VT

26.20%

WI

3.62%

DE

22.17%

27 / 25

ME

22.05%

OR

9.66%

IA

1.01%

ND

26.28%

GA

12.43%

(3.65%)

NM

18.98%

28 / 24

AR

22.18%

OH

10.60%

OK

1.21%

WV

27.22%

OR

6.05%

IL

18.94%

29 / 23

AL

22.26%

WA

12.34%

VA

1.34%

NV

27.36%

KY

6.14%

MT

18.38%

30 / 22

MT

22.30%

IA

12.70%

SD

1.48%

CO

28.01%

NV

8.16%

CA

18.32%

31 / 21

LA

22.60%

VA

12.72%

CA

1.78%

KY

28.60%

NH

8.18%

NV

17.16%

32 / 20

IN

23.99%

NJ

13.42%

IL

1.97%

NH

29.12%

SC

5.79%

ND

16.09%

33 / 19

NC

24.00%

TX

13.86%

NJ

2.16%

AZ

31.26%

MT

9.01%

WY

13.12%

34 / 18

MS

24.39%

CA

16.78%

NM

2.47%

IN

32.77%

CO

9.14%

AR

12.66%

35 / 17

VA

25.19%

FL

17.02%

WA

3.88%

TX

32.96%

VT

9.22%

IN

12.42%

36 / 16

SD

26.47%

NM

18.18%

NV

4.36%

LA

36.97%

FL

9.60%

NC

12.30%

37 / 15

TX

27.50%

IN

18.35%

CT

5.17%

VA

37.72%

TN

3.83%

OK

11.49%

38 / 14

SC

27.99%

CO

24.00%

MI

5.39%

TN

37.95%

NC

8.25%

SD

11.22%

39 / 13

CO

28.32%

MT

24.39%

ND

5.85%

AR

38.11%

VA

10.87%

TN

11.01%

40 / 12

FL

30.66%

KS

24.56%

MT

7.44%

KS

38.15%

SD

11.31%

UT

9.73%

41 / 11

ND

31.04%

OK

25.53%

KS

7.55%

ID

38.20%

NM

12.10%

KS

9.03%

42 / 10

KS

33.67%

AK

27.94%

IN

7.62%

WY

38.54%

IA

12.19%

VA

7.36%

43 / 9

NV

33.88%

SD

28.83%

VT

11.20%

NC

40.58%

IN

12.30%

NE

5.21%

44 / 8

AZ

33.88%

NH

29.39%

NH

11.28%

NE

41.00%

OK

15.70%

FL

2.30%

45 / 7

AK

36.79%

AZ

32.36%

CO

11.47%

UT

41.25%

ND

17.71%

ID

1.83%

46 / 6

NH

37.71%

WY

34.67%

AZ

16.57%

SC

42.66%

UT

19.42%

AZ

0.99%

47 / 5

OK

37.94%

NV

35.64%

WY

19.49%

FL

44.12%

AZ

19.76%

GA

8.25%

48 / 4

NE

41.74%

ND

37.97%

NE

20.74%

AL

46.89%

KS

20.13%

LA

13.63%

49 / 3

WY

42.27%

NE

39.49%

AK

22.25%

OK

49.70%

WY

20.25%

SC

17.79%

50 / 2

ID

45.97%

ID

41.27%

ID

22.76%

GA

50.39%

ID

26.13%

AL

38.90%

51 / 1

UT

49.83%

UT

52.20%

UT

28.79%

MS

58.57%

NE

28.01%

MS

74.28%

NATIONAL

Reagan

18.22%

Reagan

9.74%

Carter

2.06%

Nixon

23.15%

Nixon

0.70%

Johnson

22.58%

Nat. Swing

 

GOP +8.48%

 

GOP +11.80%

 

DEM +25.21

 

GOP +22.45%

 

GOP +23.28%

 

DEM +22.42


Over these six cycles we see a definite pattern in these four states, but a different pattern than from 1988-present. First, the relationship between IN, OH and PA has not changed: IN is always below OH on the table and OH is always und PA, but their average positions on the table are different. IL is the state that has made the journey from reliably GOP state to DEM state, and it shows here. But IL has made an electoral shift going into 1988.

Illinois: between 1984-1964: between position „13 / 39“ and „28 / 24“. Just for comparison, IL was Johnson's 28th biggest win in 1964. It was Obama's 8th biggest in 2008. That is a 20 state shift on list over 44 years. It is also not a bellwether state, having gone reliably for the GOP from 1968 until 1988, regardless of the winner in the GE, and now reliably democratic since 1992, regardless of the winner in the GE.

Pennsylvania: 1984-1964: between position „6 / 46“ and „24 / 28“. As in the last 20 years, PA has stayed ahead of OH in the partisan rankings, again by about 4%-6%, the big exception being 1984, where PA went for Reagan way under the national average, by just 7.35%, while Reagan won 1984 nationally by +18.22%. while Ohio almost exactly mirrored Reagan's win.

Ohio: 1984-1964 – the most stable bellwether state in terms of position in the rankings: between „18 / 34“ and „24 / 28“ in the rankings 5 of six cycles, with one exception of „28 / 24“ in 1992. Since 1964, Ohio has always gone with the winner, but in contrast to 1988-2008, the margins are closer to the national average and with less bias to one side. Example: 1972: Ohio +21.56 (Nixon national +23.15) / 1984: Ohio +18.76 (Reagan +18.22) / 1980: Ohio +10.60 (Reagan +9.74). In 1976, it was under Carter's national average by about 2 points, in 1968 and 1964, it was above Nixon's and Johnson's national averages by about 2 points. But the adage of „as goes Ohio, so goes the nation“ has held up reliably 44 years now.

Indiana: 2008-1988: between position „32 / 20“ and position „43 / 9“ in the rankings. In this time, IN was always clearly a very GOP state. Though Johnson carried IN in 1964, he carried it by 10% less than the rest of the nation. In fact, until 1980, Indiana went for between 10%-11% higher than the national average for the GOP. However, after the Reagan era, the state returned to being around 13% more GOP than the rest of the nation, until the massive shift of 2008.

---------------------------------------------------

So, what we see from 1984-1964 is continuity in the patterns with PA, OH and IN, with IL making the crossover to a democratic state.

And these tables are good for exactly these reasons. Seeing a color coded map does not give us the finer detail we need to see in order to ascertain how a state is moving within the whole of the partisan rankings. For that, we must develop an eye for the number down to 100th of a percent.



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