12 May 2011

National Tracking Statistics 2008 - for a project

NATIONAL TRACKING STATISTICS 11/04/2008


Caveat: I am not a real big fan of National Polls, believing firmly that the real grit is to be found in in the state-to-state polling. Nonetheless, looking at national polls after a convention is perhaps not such a bad idea. Scott at ElectionProjection includes the national polls in his statewide projections, a method I adopted this last week.




Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Margin

Gallup FINAL

11/04

53

42

+11

Rasmussen

11/04

52

46

+6

KOS

11/04

51

46

+5

Zogby FINAL

11/04

54

43

+11

GWU/Battleground

11/04

49

44

+5

Marist

11/04

52

43

+9

Harris

11/04

52

44

+8

ARG

11/04

53

45

+8

 

 

 

 

 

Diageo

11/03

50

45

+5

FOX

11/03

50

43

+7

CBS

11/03

51

42

+9

IPSOS

11/03

53

46

+7

IBD/TIPP

11/03

48

43

+5

Pew

11/03

52

46

+6

NBC/WSJ

11/03

51

43

+8

ABC/WAPO

11/03

53

44

+9

DEMCORPS

11/03

51

44

+7

 

 

 

 

 

Average:

 

52.00

44.13

+7.87

Average 2:

 

51.47

44.06

+7.41

Average 3:

 

51.47

44.13

+7.34

MEAN:

 

51.65

44.11

+7.54

-GE 2004

 

 

 

+2.46

ADJ. MEAN

 

 

 

+10.00



Average 1 = only polls from 11/04

Average 2 = polls from 11/03 ans 11/04 (17 Endpolls)

Average 3 = average without the highest and the lowest individual margin.

Mean = the mean of these averages.


Here the polling movement, just for Gallup and Rasmussen. I have been comparing the polling movement since 08/24, or 62 days:


Blue shading = an Obama high point after the convention.

Red shading = a McCain high point after the convention.

Grey shading = the days where the lead changed from one candidate to another:


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Margin

Diff.

Gallup

08/24

45

45

0

--

 

08/25

45

45

0

0

 

08/26

44

46

-2

-2

 

08/27

45

44

+1

+3

 

08/28

48

42

+6

+3

 

08/29

49

41

+8

+2

 

08/30

49

41

+8

0

 

08/31

48

42

+6

-2

 

09/01

49

43

+6

0

 

09/02

50

42

+8

+2

 

09/03

49

43

+6

-2

 

09/04

49

42

+7

+1

 

09/05

48

44

+4

-3

 

09/06

47

45

+2

-2

 

09/07

45

48

-3

-2

 

09/08

44

49

-5

-2

 

09/09

44

49

-5

0

 

09/10

43

48

-5

0

 

09/11

44

48

-4

+1

 

09/12

45

48

-3

+1

 

09/13

45

47

-2

+1

 

09/14

45

47

-2

0

 

09/15

45

47

-2

0

 

09/16

46

47

-1

+1

 

09/17

47

45

+2

+3

 

09/18

48

44

+4

+2

 

09/19

49

44

+5

+1

 

09/20

50

44

+6

+1

 

09/21

49

45

+4

-2

 

09/22

48

44

+4

0

 

09/23

47

44

+3

-1

 

09/24

47

44

+3

0

 

09/25

46

46

0

-3

 

09/26

48

45

+3

+3

 

09/27

49

44

+5

+5

 

09/28

50

42

+8

+3

 

09/29

50

42

+8

0

 

09/30

49

43

+6

-2

 

10/01

48

44

+4

-2

 

10/02

48

43

+5

+1

 

10/03

49

42

+7

+2

 

10/04

50

42

+8

+1

 

10/05

50

43

+7

-1

 

10/06

50

42

+8

+1

 

10/07

51

42

+9

+1

 

10/08

52

41

+11

+2

 

10/09

52

41

+11

0

 

10/10

51

41

+10

-1

 

10/11

51

42

+9

-1

 

10/12

50

43

+7

-2

 

10/13

51

41

+10

+3

 

10/14

51

42

+9

-1

 

10/15

52

44

+8

-1

 

10/16

49

43

+6

-2

 

10/17

51

45

+6

0

 

10/18

49

43

+6

0

 

10/19

50

43

+7

+1

 

10/20

52

42

+10

+3

 

10/21

52

42

+10

+0

 

10/22

51

42

+9

-1

 

10/23

50

43

+7

-2

 

10/24

50

42

+8

+1

 

10/25

51

42

+9

+1

 

10/26

51

42

+9

0

 

10/27

53

43

+10

+1

 

10/28

50

43

+7

-3

 

10/29

51

42

+9

+2

 

10/30

51

44

+7

-2

 

10/31

52

41

+9

+2

 

11/01

52

42

+10

+1

 

11/02

52

42

+10

0

FINAL

11/03

53

42

+11

+1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

08/24

48

45

3

--

 

08/25

48

45

3

0

 

08/26

46

46

0

-3

 

08/27

46

47

-1

-1

 

08/28

47

47

0

+1

 

08/29

49

45

+4

+4

 

08/30

49

45

+4

0

 

08/31

49

46

+3

-1

 

09/01

49

46

+3

0

 

09/02

51

45

+6

+3

 

09/03

50

45

+5

-1

 

09/04

50

45

+5

0

 

09/05

48

46

+2

-3

 

09/06

49

46

+3

+1

 

09/07

48

48

0

-1

 

09/08

47

48

-1

-1

 

09/09

48

48

0

+1

 

09/10

48

47

+1

+1

 

09/11

48

48

0

-1

 

09/12

46

49

-3

-2

 

09/13

46

49

-3

0

 

09/14

47

50

-3

0

 

09/15

47

49

-2

+1

 

09/16

47

48

-1

+1

 

09/17

47

48

-1

0

 

09/18

48

48

0

+1

 

09/19

48

48

0

0

 

09/20

48

47

+1

+1

 

09/21

48

47

+1

0

 

09/22

48

47

+1

0

 

09/23

48

48

0

-1

 

09/24

49

47

+2

+2

 

09/25

49

46

+3

+1

 

09/26

50

45

+5

+2

 

09/27

50

44

+6

+1

 

09/28

50

44

+6

0

 

09/29

50

45

+5

-1

 

09/30

51

45

+6

+1

 

10/01

51

45

+6

0

 

10/02

51

44

+7

+1

 

10/03

51

44

+7

0

 

10/04

51

45

+6

-1

 

10/05

51

44

+7

+1

 

10/06

52

44

+8

+1

 

10/07

52

44

+8

0

 

10/08

51

45

+6

-2

 

10/09

50

45

+5

-1

 

10/10

50

45

+5

0

 

10/11

52

45

+7

+2

 

10/12

51

45

+6

-1

 

10/13

50

45

+5

-1

 

10/14

50

45

+5

0

 

10/15

50

45

+5

0

 

10/16

50

46

+4

-1

 

10/17

50

46

+4

0

 

10/18

50

45

+5

+1

 

10/19

51

45

+6

+1

 

10/20

50

46

+4

-2

 

10/21

50

46

+4

+0

 

10/22

51

45

+6

+2

 

10/23

52

45

+7

+1

 

10/24

52

45

+7

0

 

10/25

52

44

+8

+1

 

10/26

52

44

+8

0

 

10/27

51

46

+5

-3

 

10/28

51

46

+5

0

 

10/29

50

47

+3

-2

 

10/30

51

46

+5

+2

 

10/31

51

47

+4

-1

 

11/01

51

46

+5

+1

 

11/02

51

46

+5

0

 

11/03

52

46

+6

+1

 

11/04

 

 

 

 



Here a table comparing the results side by side for 4 pollsters that track every day. R2K came on board on 09/11, Diego started full-time on board as of 09/08. The four are calculated together and the daily margin is the last column in this table:


Date

Rasmussen

Gallup

R2K

Diageo

BO

JM

Mar.

08/24

48

45

45

45

--

--

--

--

46.5

45

+1.5

08/25

48

45

45

45

--

--

--

--

46.5

45

+1.5

08/26

46

46

44

46

--

--

--

--

45

46

+1.0

08/27

46

47

45

44

--

--

--

--

45.5

45.5

0.0

08/28

47

47

48

42

--

--

--

--

47.5

44.5

+3.0

08/29

49

45

49

41

--

--

--

--

49

43

+6.0

08/30

49

45

49

41

--

--

--

--

49

43

+6.0

08/31

49

46

48

42

--

--

--

--

48.5

44

+4.5

09/01

49

46

49

43

--

--

--

--

49

44.5

+4.5

09/02

51

45

50

42

--

--

44

40

48.3

42.3

+6.0

09/03

50

45

49

43

--

--

--

--

49.5

44

+5.5

09/04

50

45

49

42

--

--

--

--

49.5

43.5

+6.0

09/05

48

46

48

44

--

--

46

40

47.3

45

+2.3

09/06

49

46

47

45

--

--

--

--

48

45.5

+2.5

09/07

48

48

45

48

--

--

--

--

46.5

48

+1.5

09/08

47

48

44

49

--

--

44

44

45

47

+2.0

09/09

48

48

44

49

--

--

44

45

45.3

47.3

+2.0

09/10

48

47

43

48

--

--

45

45

45.3

46.6

+1.3

09/11

48

48

44

48

47

45

46

44

46.3

46.3

0.0

09/12

46

49

45

48

47

43

44

45

45.5

46.3

+0.8

09/13

46

49

45

47

47

47

44

45

45.5

47

+1.5

09/14

47

50

45

47

47

45

45

43

46

46.3

+0.3

09/15

47

49

45

47

48

45

44

43

46

46

0.0

09/16

47

48

46

47

48

44

46

42

46.8

45.3

+1.5

09/17

47

48

47

45

48

44

45

42

46.8

44.8

+2.0

09/18

48

48

48

44

49

43

46

42

48

44.3

+3.7

09/19

48

48

49

44

49

42

45

44

47.8

44.5

+3.3

09/20

48

47

50

44

50

42

45

44

48.3

44.3

+3.7

09/21

48

47

49

45

49

42

45

44

47.8

44.5

+3.3

09/22

48

47

48

44

49

43

47

42

48

44

+4.0

09/23

48

48

47

44

48

43

47

43

47.5

44.3

+3.2

09/24

49

47

47

44

48

44

48

42

48

44.3

+3.7

09/25

49

46

46

46

49

43

47

43

47.8

44.5

+3.3

09/26

50

45

48

45

48

43

48

42

48.5

43.8

+4.7

09/27

50

44

49

44

49

43

48

43

49

43.5

+5.5

09/28

50

44

50

42

50

43

47

42

49.3

42.8

+6.5

09/29

50

45

50

42

51

42

47

42

49.5

42.8

+6.7

09/30

51

45

49

43

51

41

47

41

49.5

42.5

+7.0

10/01

51

45

48

44

51

41

47

42

49.3

43

+6.3

10/02

51

44

48

43

51

40

47

42

49.3

42.3

+7.0

10/03

51

44

49

42

51

40

48

42

49.8

42

+7.8

10/04

51

45

50

42

52

40

48

41

50.3

42

+8.3

10/05

51

44

50

43

52

40

48

41

50.3

42

+8.3

10/06

52

44

50

42

52

40

47

41

50.3

41.8

+8.5

10/07

52

44

51

42

52

41

46

44

50.3

42.8

+7.5

10/08

51

45

52

41

51

41

45

44

49.8

42.8

+7.0

10/09

50

45

52

41

51

41

47

41

50.0

42.0

+8.0

10/10

50

45

51

41

52

40

48

41

50.3

41.8

+8.5

10/11

52

45

51

42

52

40

50

40

51.3

41.8

+9.5

10/12

51

45

50

43

53

40

49

41

50.8

42.3

+8.5

10/13

50

45

51

41

52

40

51

43

51.0

42.3

+8.7

10/14

50

45

51

42

52

41

48

42

50.3

42.5

+7.8

10/15

50

45

52

44

52

41

49

41

50.8

42.8

+8.0

10/16

50

46

49

43

52

41

49

41

50.0

42.8

+7.3

10/17

50

46

51

45

52

41

50

40

50.8

43

+7.8

10/18

50

45

50

42

50

43

49

42

49.8

43

+6.8

10/19

51

45

52

42

50

43

49

41

50.5

42.8

+7.7

10/20

50

46

52

41

50

42

47

41

49.8

42.5

+7.3

10/21

50

46

52

42

50

42

47

41

49.8

42.8

+7.0

10/22

51

45

51

42

51

41

47

42

50.0

42.5

+7.5

10/23

52

45

50

43

51

41

48

43

50.3

43.0

+7.3

10/24

52

45

50

42

52

40

50

43

50.5

42.5

+8.0

10/25

52

44

51

42

52

40

50

43

51.0

42.3

+8.7

10/26

52

44

51

42

51

40

50

42

51.0

42.0

+9.0

10/27

51

46

53

43

50

42

50

42

51.0

43.3

+7.7

10/28

51

46

50

43

50

42

50

42

50.3

43.3

+7.0

10/29

50

47

51

42

50

44

49

42

50.0

43.8

+6.2

10/30

51

46

51

44

50

45

48

42

50.0

44.3

+5.7

10/31

51

47

52

41

51

45

48

41

50.5

43.5

+7.0

11/01

51

46

52

42

51

44

49

44

50.8

44.0

+6.8

11/02

51

46

52

42

51

44

50

45

51.0

44.3

+6.7

11/03

52

46

53

42

51

45

50

45

51.5

44.5

+7.0

11/04

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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