25 May 2011

Hochul wins NY-26!

A nice, but not surprising upset.

Current results:

The final polling showed Hochul up by either +4 or +6. This time the final polling was right. Currently, with 607 of 627 precincts in (5 out in Erie, Hochul territory, 15 out in Genesee, Corwin territory, the 2nd smallest county), or 97%-98% of the vote:

Hochul (D): 48,530 (47.12%)
Corwin (R): 43,836 (42.56%)
Davis (T): 9,495 (9.22%)
Murphy (G): 1,130 (1.10%)
TOTAL 102,991
Margin: Hochul +4,694 (+4.56%)

Not a majority win, but the best showing for a democrat since 1998, in a district where only three democrats have been elected for a total of 16 years to NY-26 in the last 155 years.

Davis shrunk another 3% fom the final polling, but both Hochul and Corwin picked up 5% apiece. So, right now the margin is exactly between the findings of the last two polls (Siena, PPP): between +4 and +6 for Hochul.

This is how the voters in an extremely republican district are reacting to the republican Ryan plan. More of this will be coming in the next year and a half. The WI recall elections are coming up soon and it will be interesting to watch how the electorate their votes.

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