16 May 2011

GWU Poll: Obama 52 / Romney 41 - Obama 52 / Pawlenty 39

The latest George Washington University Battleground Poll has been published. The polling organization is a collaboration between The Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). I checked out the demographic and ideological spread at the end of the report and it looks kosher. This is the second national poll in 5 days showing a double digit lead for Obama over Romney. The other was the IPSOS/Reuters poll, published on 05/11. Neither of these polls really show the fallout from Romney's speech on May 11, for the GWU poll was an aggregate from May 8-12 and the IPSOS poll was published shortly before Romney's speech. This means that any real fallout from his speech will be reflected in this week's national polling and means that he already had a double-digit deficit BEFORE giving his speech. VIDEO AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST.

From the website:


About the Poll
The POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll is a nationally recognized, bipartisan series of surveys conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. It distinguishes itself from other surveys by presenting separate analyses from these top pollsters representing both sides of the aisle.


STUDY #13040
THE TARRANCE GROUP and LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERS
N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters
Margin of error + 3.1%
Field Dates: May 8-12, 2011
SPLIT SAMPLE A/B



Here are a number of toplines from the poll,also as compared to the last poll from October 25, 2010), listed in parenthesis



Obama Approval (p.4)


Approve: 52 (45) +7

Disapprove: 44 (50)  -6

Undecided: 4 (4) - note: the poll from 10/26 does not add up to 100, but only 99. This is not uncommon.



broken further down:


strongly approve: 34 (31)

somewhat approve:18 (14)



strongly disapprove: 34 (42) - largest shift since 10/25

somewhat disapprove: 10 (8)



undecided: 4 (4)


--------------------------------


Specifics under approval/disapproval:


TERRORISM:


Approve: 75
Disapprove: 22
Undecided: 3


broken further down:


strongly approve: 47

somewhat approve: 28



strongly disapprove: 13

somewhat disapprove: 9



undecided: 6




ECONOMY / JOBS:


Approve: 42
Disapprove: 55
Undecided: 2


broken further down:


strongly approve: 17

somewhat approve: 25



strongly disapprove: 41

somewhat disapprove: 16



undecided: 6


Who do you think deserves more credit for the death of Osama Bin Laden?


Obama: 39

Bush 43: 12

both: 41

undecided: 6
no answer: 2



-------------------------------------



2012 Presidential Match-ups:

Obama/Romney:


Obama: 52
Romney: 41
Undecided: 9 (yes, this adds up to more than 100%)



broken further down:


definitely Obama: 40

probably Obama: 11
lean Obama: 1



definitely Romney: 27

probably Romney: 11
lean Romney: 2


undecided: 9


Obama/Pawlenty (TPaw):


Obama: 52
Pawlenty: 39
Undecided: 11 (yes, this adds up to more than 100%)



broken further down:


definitely Obama: 40

probably Obama: 10
lean Obama: 2



definitely Pawlenty: 25

probably Pawlenty: 11
lean Pawlenty: 2


undecided: 11


---------------------------------------------

Donald Trump has indicated that he is considering running for President. If he does run for President, do
you believe that he has any chance of being elected President?
Yes ...................................................................... 26%
No ....................................................................... 71%
UNSURE/REFUSED (DNR) ...............................3%

You can read about the demographic breakdown of the poll starting on page 11:

D3. When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be...
(READ LIST, ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP)

Very conservative .................................................... 20%
Somewhat conservative .........................................37%
MODERATE (DNR) ................................................ 2%
Somewhat liberal ....................................................26%
Very liberal .............................................................. 11%
UNSURE/REFUSED (DNR) ..................................3%


D4. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?

Republican/strong ......................... 19%
Republican/not strong ...................11%
Lean Republican ........................... 10%

Independent .................................... 15%

Lean Democrat .................................. 6%
not strong Democrat ....................... 12%
Strong democrat............................... 25%

No preference / Other.........................2%


D5. Do you consider yourself a part of or do you identify with the Tea Party movement:

Yes/strongly ............................................................. 15%
Yes ............................................................................. 9%
(DNR) ........................................................................ 5%
No............................................................................... 22%
No/strongly .............................................................. 49%

Which candidate did you vote for in 2008:

John McCain ............................................................ 41%
Barack Obama ......................................................... 48% (margin: Obama +7)
Ralph Nader (DNR) ........................................................
OTHER (DNR) ......................................................... 5%
REFUSED (DNR) ..................................................... 5%
UNSURE (DNR) ...................................................... 1%

How have you voted in the past:

Straight Republican .................................................... 9%
Mostly Republican .................................................... 27%
A few more Republicans than Democrats .......... 11%
INDEPENDENT/THE PERSON (DNR) .................. 3%
A few more Democrats than Republicans ............. 7%
Mostly Democratic .................................................... 23%
Straight Democratic ................................................... 17%
UNSURE/REFUSED (DNR) ..................................... 4%

Race?

White ........................................................................ 77%
Black/African-American ......................................... 12%
Hispanic/Latino (TO D12) ........................................ 6%
Asian/Pacific American............................................. 1%
Native American ........................................................ 1%
Other (Specify ) .................................................. *
UNSURE/REFUSED (DNR) (TO D12) ................ 3%

If hispanic, do you consider yourself a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking American?:

Yes ............................................................................. 3%
No............................................................................. 96%
UNSURE/REFUSED (DNR) ................................... 1%

(the wording of that one was klutzy - I assume the 96% means "Spanish-speaking American")





Probably not much to discuss here, but these two polls (GWU and IPSOS) can provide a good backdrop to what we will see coming this week.

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