12 May 2011

from 2008 polling, only RASMUSSEN polls


RASMUSSEN POLLING 2008 vs. final results:

grey shading = polls within the calculations

yellow shading = polls that have been cycled out or replaced by repeaters.

Any state with +10.00 margin average is listed as “safe” for that party.

Alabama – FIREWALL GOP


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

34.33

53.66

2.33

9.67

+19.33

2008:

 

38.74

60.32

0.94

--

+21.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/24

39

60

--

2

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

08/04

38

58

2

2

20

Rasmussen

07/01

36

51

7

5

15

Rasmussen

05/29

32

60

 

 

28

Rasmussen

04/07

37

55

 

 

18

RAS AVG:

 

36.40

56.80

 

 

+20.40


Bush 2004 margin: +25.62

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.25

------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Alaska – safe GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

40.30

54.88

0.86

3.16

+14.58

2008:

 

37.89

59.42

2.69

---

+21.54

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/29

41

57

1

1

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/07

40

55

1

3

15

Rasmussen

09/10

33

64

--

3

31

Rasmussen

07/31

39

44

7

10

5

Rasmussen

07/21

40

45

7

7

5

Rasmussen

05/16

41

50

 

 

9

Rasmussen

04/10

43

48

 

 

5

RAS AVG:

7

39.57

53.43

 

 

+13.86


Bush 2004 margin: +25.55

GOP combined margin average 1960-2004: +15.80


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arizona- lean GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

44.86

49.29

1.29

4.29

+4.43

2008:

 

44.91

53.39

1.69

---

+8.48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/27

46

51

1

2

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/30

38

59

1

2

21

Rasmussen

08/04

38

57

2

3

19

Rasmussen

06/29

40

49

6

5

9

Rasmussen

04/21

37

57

 

 

20

Rasmussen

12/04

33

55

 

 

22

RAS AVG:

 

38.67

54.67

 

 

+16.00


Bush 2004 margin: +10.47

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +14.60


--------------------------------------------------------------

Arkansas - safe GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

41.25

52.00

1.00

5.75

+10.75

2008

 

38.86

58.72

2.42

--

+19.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/28

44

54

1

1

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/25

42

51

3

4

9

Rasmussen

07/17

37

47

5

11

10

Rasmussen

06/15

39

48

8

5

9

Rasmussen

05/15

33

57

6

3

24

Rasmussen

03/22

30

59

 

 

29

RAS AVG:

 

37.50

52.67

3.83

4.00

+15.17



Bush 2004 margin: +9.76

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.53


----------------------------------------------------------------------

California- FIREWALL DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

58.00

34.00

2.75

5.25

+24.00

2008:

 

60.94

36.91

2.14

---

+24.03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/27

61

34

3

2

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/11

56

40

1

3

16

Rasmussen

09/23

56

39

2

3

17

Rasmussen

08/22

54

41

2

3

13

Rasmussen

07/26

50

38

6

6

12

Rasmussen

06/24

58

30

5

7

28

Rasmussen

05/22

52

38

 

 

14

Rasmussen

04/17

50

43

 

 

13

Rasmussen

03/14

53

38

 

 

15

RAS AVG:

 

54.44

37.89

1.77

 

+16.55



Kerry 2004 margin: +9.95

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.96


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colorado – DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

51.00

44.38

0.5

3.75

+6.62

2008:

 

53.66

44.71

1.63

--

+8.95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

11/03

51

47

1

1

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/27

50

46

1

2

4

Rasmussen

10/20

51

46

--

3

5

Rasmussen

10/17

52

45

1

2

7

Rasmussen

10/06

51

45

3

2

6

Rasmussen

09/29

49

48

1

2

1

Rasmussen

09/24

50

47

1

2

3

Rasmussen

09/15

46

48

4

2

2

Rasmussen

09/08

49

46

2

2

3

Rasmussen

08/14

48

49

1

2

1

Rasmussen

07/22

49

42

5

4

7

Rasmussen

06/19

43

41

8

7

2

Rasmussen

04/18

47

43

 

 

4

Rasmussen

03/19

46

46

 

 

TIE

RAS AVG

 

48.71

45.62

2.00

 

+3.09



Bush 2004 margin: +4.67

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.41


----------------------------------------------------------------

Connecticut – safe DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

57.00

35.67

1.33

5.67

+21.33

2008:

 

60.59

38.22

1.19

+22.37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/16

56

39

1

3

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/18

53

41

0

5

12

Rasmussen

08/04

53

40

2

6

13

Rasmussen

05/30

47

44

--

9

3

Rasmussen

03/15

50

38

--

12

12

RAS AVG:

 

51.80

40.40

0.60

7.00

+11.40



*inc. Nader 2.1 / Barr 5.2


Kerry 2004 margin: +10.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.03


---------------------------------------------------------------

Delaware – safe DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

58.17

37.47

1.33

2.37

+20.70

2008:

 

61.91

36.93

1.16

--

+24.98

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/14

56

41

1

2

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/14

55

43

1

2

12

RAS AVG:

 

55.50

42.00

1.00

2.00

+13.50


Kerry 2004 margin: +7.59

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.05


------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DC – FIREWALL DEM


-NO RAS POLLING HERE


Kerry 2004 margin: +79.84

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +69.56

Florida – lean DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

48.69

47.00

1.07

3.22

+1.69

2008:

 

50.91

48.10

0.99

--

+2.81

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

11/03

49

50

--

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/27

51

47

--

1

4

Rasmussen

10/20

48

49

1

2

1

Rasmussen

10/13

51

46

1

2

5

Rasmussen

10/09

50

47

0

3

3

Rasmussen

10/06

52

45

1

2

7

Rasmussen

09/29

47

47

1

5

0

Rasmussen

09/26

47

48

1

4

1

Rasmussen

09/15

44

49

4

3

5

Rasmussen

09/08

48

48

2

2

0

Rasmussen

08/19

46

48

3

3

2

Rasmussen

07/23

46

45

4

6

1

Rasmussen

07/01

41

48

6

5

7

Rasmussen

06/19

39

47

6

8

8

Rasmussen

05/21

40

50

 

 

10

Rasmussen

04/14

38

53

 

 

15

Rasmussen

03/16

43

47

 

 

4

RAS AVG:

 

45.88

47.88

1.76

2.59

+2.00



Bush 2004 margin: +5.01

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +8.65

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Georgia – lean GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

46.29

50.14

1.57

2.29

+3.85

2008:

 

46.90

52.10

1.00

--

+5.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/31

47

52

0

1

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/23

46

51

0

3

5

Rasmussen

10/08

45

54

0

1

9

Rasmussen

09/18

43

54

0

4

11

Rasmussen

08/18

44

53

1

2

9

Rasmussen

07/21

39

48

5

7

9

Rasmussen

06/10

41

51

6

2

10

Rasmussen

05/09

39

53

6

2

14

Rasmussen

03/21

40

53

 

 

13

RAS AVG:

 

42.67

52.11

2.00

3.22

+9.44



Bush 2004 margin: +16.60

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.17


------------------------------------------------------------------


Hawaii – FIREWALL DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

65.50

39.50

2.00

3.50

+36.00

2008:

 

71.85

26.58

1.57

--

+45.26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/24

68

27

2

3

41


Kerry 2004 margin: +8.74

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.01


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Idaho – FIREWALL GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

32.00

55.00

5.00

8.00

+23.00

2008:

 

35.91

61.21

2.89

--

+25.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/11

29

68

--

3

39


Bush 2004 margin: +38.12

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44


------------------------------------------------------------------

Illinois – FIREWALL DEM


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

59.05

34.15

1.40

4.05

+24.90

2008:

 

61.85

36.74

1.41

--

+25.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

11/02

60

38

--

2

22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/15

56

39

0

5

17

Rasmussen

09/20

56

40

2

2

16

Rasmussen

08/18

55

40

1

4

15

Rasmussen

07/09

50

37

4

9

13

RAS AVG:

 

55.40

38.80

1.40

4.40

+16.60



Kerry 2004 margin: +10.34

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.09


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indiana – DEM PICK-UP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

46.59

47.77

1.64

4.00

+1.18

2008:

 

49.85

48.82

1.33

---

+1.03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/30

46

49

1

4

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/09

43

50

3

4

7

Rasmussen

09/19

47

49

2

3

2

Rasmussen

08/22

43

49

2

6

6

RAS AVG:

 

44.75

49.25

2.00

5.25

+4.50




Bush 2004 margin: +20.68

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +13.29


--------------------------------------------------------------------

Iowa – SAFE DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

52.91

40.16

1.83

5.24

+12.75

2008:

 

53.91

44.39

1.68

---

+9.53

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/24

52

44

1

3

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/27

51

43

2

5

8

Rasmussen

08/11

49

44

2

5

5

Rasmussen

07/14

48

38

7

7

10

Rasmussen

06/12

45

38

7

8

7

Rasmussen

05/15

44

42

 

 

2

Rasmussen

04/06

46

42

 

 

4

Rasmussen

02/21

44

41

 

 

3

RAS AVG:

 

47.38

41.50

--

--

+5.88


GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.84


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kansas – safe GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

39.00

56.00

2.50

2.50

+17.00

2008:

 

41.55

56.48

1.97

--

+14.92

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/15

41

54

2

3

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/23

38

58

1

3

20

Rasmussen

08/13

41

55

1

4

14

Rasmussen

07/16

32

52

9

7

20

Rasmussen

06/16

37

47

6

10

10

Rasmussen

05/13

34

55

7

4

21

RAS AVG:

 

37.17

53.50

4.33

5.17

+16.33



Bush 2004 margin: +25.38

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +19.84


------------------------------------------------------------------


Kentucky - safe GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

41.60

54.00

1.60

3.00

+12.40

2008:

 

41.15

57.37

1.49

--

+16.22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/30

43

55

2

1

12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/23

44

52

1

3

8

Rasmussen

10/02

42

52

2

4

10

Ramussen

07/31

39

49

6

7

10

Rasmussen

06/27

35

51

8

6

16

Rasmussen

05/25

32

57

 

 

25

RAS AVG:

 

39.17

52.67

---

---

+13.50


Bush 2004 margin: +19.86

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.32


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Louisiana – safe GOP


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

39.77

50.20

0.90

9.50

+10.43

2008:

 

39.93

58.56

1.50

---

+18.63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/23

41

57

1

2

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/27

40

55

2

3

15

Rasmussen

08/19

39

57

2

2

18

Rasmussen

07/14

34

54

6

6

20

Rasmussen

06/01

41

50

 

 

9

Rasmussen

04/11

41

52

 

 

11

RAS AVG:

 

39.33

54.17

--

--

+14.84


*inc. Nader 1.3 / Barr 3.7

Bush 2004 margin: +14.51

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.64

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Maine – safe DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

54.78

37.63

2.52

4.27

+17.15

2008:

 

57.71

40.38

1.91

--

+17.32

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

11/02

56

43

1

2

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/04

51

46

2

1

5

Rasmussen

09/19

50

46

1

3

4

Rasmussen

08/15

53

39

3

5

14

Rasmussen

07/18

49

41

3

6

8

Rasmussen

06/16

55

33

6

6

22

Rasmussen

05/16

51

38

 

 

13

Rasmussen

04/04

49

39

 

 

10

RAS AVG:

 

51.75

40.63

--

--

+11.12


Kerry 2004 margin: +9.00

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.67


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maryland – safe DEM


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

55.30

38.00

0.30

6.33

+17.30

2008:

 

61.92

36.47

1.61

---

+25.44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/24

60

37

1

3

23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

08/20

53

43

1

3

10

Rasmussen

01/08

48

42

 

 

6

RAS AVG:

 

53.67

40.67

0.67

2.00

+13.00


*inc. Nader 1.2 / Barr 6.2

Kerry 2004 margin: +12.98

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +2.85


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Massachusetts - FIREWALL DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

57.00

35.67

3.00

4.33

+21.33

2008:

 

61.80

35.99

1.29

--

+25.16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/15

62

34

0

4

28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/25

58

38

1

3

20

Rasmussen

08/07

54

38

2

5

16

Rasmussen

07/02

53

33

4

10

20

Rasmussen

05/30

51

38

6

3

13

Rasmussen

04/25

51

39

 

 

12

Rasmussen

03/20

49

42

 

 

7

RAS AVG:

 

54.00

37.43

--

--

+16.57



Kerry 2004 margin: +25.16

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +14.75


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michigan- safe DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

53.87

39.54

1.41

5.07

+14.43

2008:

 

57.33

40.89

1.78

--

+16.44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/29

53

43

1

3

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/09

56

40

3

1

16

Ras/FOX

09/22

51

44

2

3

7

Rasmussen

09/11

51

46

--

3

5

Rasmussen

08/08

49

45

2

4

4

Rasmussen

07/14

47

39

5

8

8

Rasmussen

06/11

45

42

5

7

3

Rasmussen

05/10

44

45

 

 

1

Rasmussen

03/31

45

46

 

 

2

Rasmussen

03/12

44

41

 

 

3

Rasmussen

02/17

42

43

 

 

1

 

 

47.91

43.09

--

--

+4.82


*inc. Nader 2.1 / Barr 6.0

Kerry 2004 margin: +3.42

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.42


----------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota – safe DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

53.00

41.00

1.43

4.57

+12.00

2008:

 

54.06

43.82

2.12

--

+10.24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/29

55

43

1

1

12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/23

56

41

1

2

15

Rasmussen

10/08

52

45

1

2

7

Rasmussen

09/22

52

44

2

2

8

Rasmussen

08/14

49

45

2

4

4

Rasmussen

07/22

49

37

6

8

12

Rasmussen

07/14

52

34

4

10

18

Rasmussen

06/13

52

39

6

3

13

Rasmussen

05/25

53

38

4

5

15

Rasmussen

04/24

52

38

 

 

14

Rasmussen

03/21

47

43

 

 

4

Rasmussen

02/16

53

38

 

 

15

RAS AVG:

 

51.83

40.42

--

--

+11.41



Kerry 2004 margin: +3.48

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +6.15


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Mississippi – safe GOP




Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

42.50

53.00

2.00

4.00

+10.50

2008:

 

43.00

56.17

0.83

--

+13.17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/28

45

53

1

4

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/01

44

52

1

3

8

Rasmussen

08/23

43

56

1

1

13

Rasmussen

06/26

44

50

3

3

6

Rasmussen

05/29

44

50

3

3

6

RAS AVG:

 

44.00

52.20

1.80

2.80

+8.20


OBAMA vs. JM margin average: JM + 12.30 (0.00)


Bush 2004 margin: +19.69

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.66


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Missouri –TOSSUP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

48.03

48.49

0.61

2.71

+0.46

2008:

 

49.23

49.36

1.41

--

+0.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

11/03

49

49

--

2

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/27

48

47

3

3

1

Rasmussen

10/20

49

44

4

4

5

Rasmussen

10/17

52

46

0

2

6

Rasmussen

10/13

50

47

1

2

3

Rasmussen

10/06

50

47

1

2

3

Rasmussen

09/12

46

51

--

3

5

Rasmussen

08/08

44

50

1

4

6

Rasmussen

07/09

42

47

6

5

5

Rasmussen

06/04

43

42

 

 

1

Rasmussen

05/09

41

47

 

 

6

Rasmussen

03/26

38

53

 

 

15

Rasmussen

02/13

42

40

 

 

2

RAS AVG:

 

45.69

46.92

--

--

+1.23


Bush 2004 margin: +7.20

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.21


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Montana – lean GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

45.37

47.03

2.65

4.58

+1.66

2008:

 

47.11

49.49

3.39

--

+2.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/30

46

50

2

2

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/02

44

52

2

2

8

Rasmussen

09/09

42

53

2

3

11

Rasmussen

07/31

44

45

4

6

1

Rasmussen

07/03

48

43

4

5

5

Rasmussen

04/10

43

48

 

 

5

RAS AVG:

 

44.50

48.50

2.80

3.60

+4.00



Bush 2004 margin: +20.50

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.54


------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Nebraska – safe GOP (see also: NEBRASKA-02)




Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

37.00

56.00

3.00

4.00

+19.00

2008:

 

41.60

56.53

1.87

--

+14.93

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/02

37

56

3

4

19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

07/31

32

50

8

10

18

Rasmussen

06/24

36

52

6

6

16

Rasmussen

05/18

39

50

--

11

11

RAS AVG:

 

36.00

52.00

4.25

7.75

+16.00



Bush 2004 margin: +33.22

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44


*In the SUSA-50 from 06/06, Obama wins one CD in NE.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nevada – DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

50.74

43.91

2.06

2.86

+6.83

2008:

 

55.15

42.65

2.20

--

+12.49

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/28

50

46

3

1

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/17

50

45

2

3

5

Rasmussen

10/03

51

47

1

2

4

Rasmussen

09/13

46

49

1

4

3

Rasmussen

08/13

45

48

4

4

3

Rasmussen

07/17

42

40

8

10

2

Rasmussen

06/19

42

45

6

7

3

Rasmussen

05/21

40

46

 

 

6

Rasmussen

04/23

43

48

 

 

5

Rasmussen

03/24

45

41

 

 

4

Rasmussen

02/14

50

38

 

 

12

RAS AVG:

 

45.82

44.82

--

--

+1.00


Bush 2004 margin: +2.59

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: + 9.94


----------------------------------------------------------------

New Hampshire – DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

52.29

41.86

1.29

4.00

+10.43

2008:

 

54.13

44.52

1.35

---

+9.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/31

51

44

1

3

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/24

50

46

1

3

4

Rasmussen

10/03

53

43

2

3

10

Rasmussen

09/24

47

49

1

3

2

Rasmussen

08/20

47

46

2

6

1

Rasmussen

07/24

47

41

5

8

6

Rasmussen

06/19

50

39

5

5

11

Rasmussen

05/23

48

43

 

 

5

Rasmussen

04/30

41

51

 

 

10

Rasmussen

03/19

43

46

 

 

3

Rasmussen

02/13

49

36

 

 

13

RAS AVG:

 

47.82

44.00

---

---

+3.82



Kerry 2004 margin: +1.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +11.34

------------------------------------------------------------------

New Jersey- safe DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

54.29

38.29

1.71

5.86

+16.00

2008:

 

57.14

41.61

1.26

--

+15.53

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

11/03

57

42

1

1

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/09

50

42

2

6

8

Rasmussen

09/18

55

42

1

3

13

Rasmussen

08/06

52

42

1

5

10

Rasmussen

07/09

44

39

5

11

5

Rasmussen

06/09

48

39

6

6

9

Rasmussen

03/31

42

43

 

 

1

Rasmussen

03/02

43

45

 

 

2

RAS AVG:

 

48.88

41.75

--

--

+7.13



Kerry 2004 margin: +6.68

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +3.43


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Mexico- DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

52.68

43.42

2.15

2.40

+9.26

2008:

 

56.91

41.78

1.31

--

+15.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/15

55

42

1

3

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/02

49

44

4

3

5

Rasmussen

09/10

47

49

--

4

2

Rasmussen

08/21

48

44

4

4

4

Rasmussen

07/25

46

41

5

9

5

Rasmussen

06/23

47

39

5

9

8

Rasmussen

05/17

50

41

5

4

9

Rasmussen

04/10

45

42

 

 

3

Rasmussen

02/24

44

44

 

 

TIE

RAS AVG:

 

47.89

42.89

 

 

+5.00



*inc. Nader 1.5 / Barr 8.6

Bush 2004 margin: +0.79

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +4.10


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York- FIREWALL DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

61.50

32.50

1.50

4.25

+29.00

2008:

 

62.88

36.03

1.09

---

+26.86

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/16

57

37

2

4

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/16

55

42

2

2

13

Rasmussen

08/06

55

36

5

4

19

Rasmussen

05/30

52

33

8

4

19

Rasmussen

04/30

52

35

6

3

17

RAS AVG:

 

54.20

36.60

4.60

3.40

+17.6




Kerry 2004 margin: +18.29

DEM margin average 1948-2004: +5.42


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Carolina – lean DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

47.85

47.23

1.44

3.63

+0.62

2008:

 

49.70

49.38

0.92

--

+0.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

11/03

49

50

--

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/30

50

48

1

1

2

Rasmussen

10/27

48

49

1

2

1

Rasmussen

10/24

48

50

1

1

2

Rasmussen

10/20

51

48

-

1

3

Rasmussen

10/13

48

48

1

3

0

Rasmussen

10/09

49

48

1

2

1

Rasmussen

10/01

50

47

2

1

3

Rasmussen

09/25

49

47

1

2

2

Rasmussen

09/22

47

50

--

3

3

Rasmussen

08/15

44

50

1

5

6

Rasmussen

07/17

42

45

5

8

3

Rasmussen

06/12

43

45

6

5

2

Rasmussen

05/10

45

48

 

 

3

Rasmussen

04/12

47

47

 

 

TIE

Rasmussen

03/24

42

51

 

 

9

RAS AVG:

 

47.00

48.19

---

----

+1.19


*inc. Nader 0.7 / Barr 4.4

Bush 2004 margin: +12.44

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Dakota – lean DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

45.00

43.66

1.00

10.33

+1.34

2008:

 

44.50

53.15

2.34

--

+8.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/10

41

55

--

4

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

07/09

43

43

7

7

0

RAS AVG:

 

42

49

3.5

5.5

+7.00


Bush 2004 margin: +27.36

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +18.36


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ohio - DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

48.99

46.68

0.91

3.09

+2.31

2008:

 

51.38

46.80

1.82

---

+4.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

11/03

49

49

1

1

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/27

49

45

1

4

4

Rasmussen

10/20

47

49

1

2

2

Rasmussen

10/16

49

49

1

1

0

Rasmussen

10/13

49

47

1

3

2

Rasmussen

10/06

47

48

--

4

1

Rasmussen

09/29

47

48

--

4

1

Rasmussen

09/25

46

47

3

3

1

Ras/FOX

09/22

46

50

2

2

4

Rasmussen

09/15

45

48

1

6

3

Rasmussen

09/08

44