27 April 2009

Virginia - a county by county in-depth analysis


As was the case with INDIANA and OHIO, I have now completed a massive county-by-county study of the results of the GE 2008 for VIRGINIA.

President Obama, who won the Commonwealth of Virginia with a +6.30% margin, was the first Democratic candidate to win this state since 1964 and the second Democratic candidate to win since 1948. Of note: VIRGINIA and COLORADO, both Democratic pick-ups in 2008, are the no. 1 and 2 states that came closest to Obama's national winning margin; VIRGINIA went „blue“ for slightly less than the national margin while COLORADO went for President Obama with slightly more than the national margin. It is rare when an unexpected battleground state flips and also mirrors the national numbers, but even rarer when this happens with two such states. Note also that these two states are in completely different regions of the Union, more proof that the GE 2008 was a so-called "re-alignment election".

In a nutshell:

1.) Obama set a new VIRGINIA raw vote record for a candidate of any party: 1,959,932 votes, 242,573 votes more than Bush's record-breaking raw vote from 2004. This is also the largest increase in votes for one party from one cycle the the next in VA history; the Democratic party added 504,790 votes to it's total over 2004. Incidentally, McCain also did better than Bush (2004) in VIRGINIA: he bested Bush's PV take by 8,046 votes. However, the ratio of the democratic vote increase over the GOP vote increase was 63.74 to 1! The popular vote growth rate for VIRGINIA was 16.91%.

2.) Obama won VIRGINIA with the 11th largest winning percent, the 11th largest winning margin, the 4th largest state partisan shift and the 4th largest Partisan Value* in US history for a Democratic candidate. Of the 14 Democratic winning cycles in VIRGINIA, this puts Obama roughly in the middle of the standings. That 4th largest partisan-shift, by the way, is larger than Johnson's from 1964. You have to go back to 1912 to find a Democratic partisan shift in VA larger than this one. The dynamics of President Obama's win in VIRGINIA are very, very different than in the other two states (IN, OH); this information is critical and has far reaching ramifications for both the Democrats and the GOP in future elections. For this reason, I've done such an analysis.

*Partisan Value = the difference between the state partisan shift and the national partisan shift. For instance, the partisan shift in Virginia was +14.50%, while the national partisan shift was +9.73%, which means that Virginia was +4.77% stronger than the national pull toward the democratic party in 2008.

I've divided the information into three parts. It is easier to link out to the report at GOOGLE DOCS than to reprint it here as the wysiwyg editor here does not always work well with tables and graphics, and this analysis is the most graphic intensive to date.

In Part I, there is important background information on Virginia, including details on the 14 DEM election cycles where a democratic candidate won the state. Also in Part I is the general overview of the county-wide results. You can link via Google Docs.

Part II contains a very large, detailed and enhanced (in comparison to the analyses of INDIANA and OHIO) table of the 134 counties/independent cities in Virginia, first by descending partisan shift and an analysis of the partisan shift ranges, and then by county size (% of the 2008 statewide popular vote), descending. Harrisburg (independent city), Fairfax and Buchanan counties are used as a prime examples of how Obama won Virginia, even through counties where he lost. We also see statistical proof of the "appalachian phenomenon" in the southwest part of the state. You can link via Google Docs.

Part III is an analysis of the democratic pick-up counties and also of the "tipping-point" counties, including some colorful maps. The conclusion draws pointed differences between Obama's historic win in Virginia and his wins in Indiana and Ohio (quoted also below). You can link via Google Docs.

Auxiliary sources:

I took the county-wide raw data for the entire state for both 2008 and 2004 and plugged it into an excel spreadsheet, which you can find here. Subsidiary data for all 134 counties/independent cities in VIRGINIA can be found here. Should you have difficulty calling up the spreadsheet, if you email me, I can send you a copy.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here a full quote from the conclusion:

"In INDIANA, every single county trended more or less democratic, without exception – there was a blue shift that moved the entire state and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed greatly to Obama's narrow win here – yes, the counties that he still lost to McCain. This shows a large level of GOP defection to Obama in 2008. Here, Obama gained 405,028 raw votes over Kerry from 2004, while McCain lost 133,790 raw votes over Bush from 2004, an uneven shift. Indiana's PV growth rate over 2004 was 11.47%. And Obama won by +1.03%.

In OHIO, not every county trended democratic (11 trended GOP), but there were no GOP county pick-ups. Also, in Ohio, the largest cities, all five of them, played the crucial role in moving the state into the democratic column and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed very little to Obama's narrow win, in contrast to INDIANA. Surely there were some moderate GOP defections, but there were also a moderate amount of newly registered voters. Here, Obama gained 198,877 raw votes over Kerry's total from 2004, while McCain lost 181,948 raw votes over Bush's total from 2004, a moderate mirror image shift. Ohio's PV growth rate over 2004 was a nominal 1.36%, way under the national PV growth rate of 7.46%. And Obama won by +4.58%.

However, in VIRGINIA, there was real resistance to Obama, but this resistance occured in counties that are „emptying out“, so to speak. We see a large poli-demographic shift in VA, with the north and the southeast gaining greatly in political strength for the democratic party. Here there were obviously far fewer GOP defections, if at all (McCain scored more raw votes in VA than Bush from 2004), but far more newly registered and democratic dedicated voters. This poses a far larger problem for the GOP than either Indiana or Ohio, for Obama's +1.03% margin in Indiana can be overcome and Ohio is expected to be a battleground state in virtually every cycle, but the addition of more then 500,000 voters to the democratic rolls in just one cycle is much harder for the opposition to overcome. The best case scenario for the GOP is that VIRGINIA becomes a bitter battleground state. However, +6.30% is hardly a battleground margin. It is a better margin than Obama scored in OHIO, FLORIDA, INDIANA and NORTH CAROLINA. It is a lean winning margin, but a comfortable one and will require a minimum 12.60% shift back in order for the GOP to regain the state; I doubt that this shift will come from those 500,000 new voters. The worst case scenario for the GOP is that Obama cements VIRGINIA into the democratic column in his first term, adding the state to core democratic territory and thus making the electoral math for the GOP more difficult."

17 April 2009

NY-20 Update - April 17, 2009

Murphy is now up by 178 votes.

Current totals:

Murphy: 79,452 (50.06%)
Tedesco: 79,274 (49.94%)

Total: 158,726 (100.00%)

Margin: Murphy +178 (0.12%)


"The only ballots that have not been counted are those challenged by each candidate’s lawyers, and while Tedisco’s office has said the challenges are roughly evenly split between the two camps, Columbia County lawyers for Murphy have only challenged 22 ballots, while Tedisco’s have challenged 258."

That makes 280 ballots. Assuming that all of these ballots will be counted and are valid, that would bring the total to 159,006. In order for Tedesco to win, he would need to get 230 (82.14%) of those 280 ballots, bringing him one vote over 50% out of a total of 159,006.
0.12% was McCain's winning margin in the state of Missouri, btw...

14 April 2009

The Hand of God?


Wow. Wow. Wow.
Indescribable.

This pulsar, currently cataloged as PSR B1509-58, is young and was photographed by the CHANDRA X-Ray Observatory.

"A small, dense object only twelve miles in diameter is responsible for this beautiful X-ray nebula that spans 150 light years.
At the center of this image made by NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory is a very young and powerful pulsar, known as PSR B1509-58, or B1509 for short. The pulsar is a rapidly spinning neutron star which is spewing energy out into the space around it to create complex and intriguing structures, including one that resembles a large cosmic hand. In this image, the lowest energy X-rays that Chandra detects are colored red, the medium range is green, and the most energetic ones are blue. Astronomers think that B1509 is about 1700 years old as measured in Earth's time-frame (referring to when events are observable at Earth) and is located about 17,000 light years away."

WOW.

08 April 2009

OHIO - county for county

I have done an even more intensive county by county analysis study of the state of OHIO vis-a-vis the presidential election from 2008.

The document is in three parts and published at GOOGLE DOCS.

Part I
Part II
Part III
The excel spreadsheet with all the raw data

As was the case with INDIANA, the study of
OHIO was fascinating and provides much thought provoking information.

The advantage of GOOGLE DOCS is that I can continue to update and correct a document and it will be automatically republished without the link changing. So, until I am absolutely sure that all the bugs are out, I will not publish the text here at my blog. Rather, just go to the links provided up above.


Next state for intensive county by county study: VIRGINIA

04 April 2009

Indiana 2008 – County by County - Part III

Indiana 2008 – County by County - Part III


Part I is here.

Part II is here.


Here the table again, resorted in descending order of county size, based on % of statewide PV in 2008:



County

% of 2008 PV

% of 2004 PV

% shift

Partisan shift

Marion

13.81%

13.00%

+0.80%

+26.40%

Lake

7.59%

7.62%

-0.03%

+11.45%

Allen

5.46%

5.25%

+0.21%

-22.89%

Hamilton

4.70%

4.25%

-0.45%

-26.89%

St. Joseph

4.30%

4.40%

-0.10%

+19.47%

Vanderburgh

2.82%

2.86%

-0.04%

+20.43%

Porter

2.68%

2.63%

+0.05%

+15.53%

Elkhardt

2.60%

2.49%

+0.11%

-29.54%

Tippecanoe

2.49%

2.12%

+0.37%

+30.85%

Hendricks

2.36%

2.12%

+0.24%

-24.24%

Monroe

2.30%

2.04%

+0.26%

+23.98%

Johnson

2.14%

2.08%

+0.06%

-22.70%

Madison

2.08%

2.22%

-0.14%

+25.94%

Delaware

1.82%

1.94%

-0.13%

+28.77

Clark

1.73%

1.72%

+0.01%

-9.11%

LaPorte

1.70%

1.73%

-0.03%

+22.50%

Vigo

1.59%

1.61%

-0.02%

+22.28%

Howard

1.40%

1.50%

-0.10%

-22.79%

Floyd

1.33%

1.37%

-0.04%

-7.65%

Hancock

1.24%

1.13%

-0.11%

-20.15%

Bartholomew

1.13%

1.16%

-0.03%

-23.68%

Kosciuosko

1.09%

1.15%

-0.06%

-19.64%

Morgan

1.05%

1.05%

0.00%

-21.13%

Warrick

1.04%

1.05%

-0.01%

-17.70%

Wayne

1.04%

1.12%

-0.08%

-17.17%

Boone

0.97%

0.93%

-0.04%

-24.13%

Grant

0.96%

1.11%

-0.15%

-24.30%

Dearborn

0.81%

0.85%

-0.04%

-1.46%

Henry

0.77%

0.83%

-0.06%

-25.15%

Dubois

0.67%

0.69%

-0.03%

-33.99%

Marshall

0.67%

0.72%

-0.05%

+22.81%

Lawrence

0.67%

0.72%

-0.05%

-18.21%

Harrison

0.66%

0.70%

-0.04%

-9.95%

Shelby

0.64%

0.65%

-0.01%

-23.88%

Jackson

0.63%

0.66%

-0.03%

-23.08%

Noble

0.62%

0.64%

-0.02%

-23.89%

DeKalb

0.62%

0.62%

0.00%

-21.54%

Knox

0.60%

0.64%

-0.04%

-21.05%

Huntington

0.59%

0.63%

-0.04%

-22.34%

Cass

0.57%

0.56%

+0.01%

-28.55%

Montgomery

0.56%

0.59%

-0.03%

-30.69%

Whitley

0.55%

0.55%

0.00%

-20.30%

Gibson

0.55%

0.59%

-0.04%

-12.48%

Putnam

0.53%

0.53%

0.00

-24.62%

Miami

0.51%

0.55%

-0.04%

-22.46%

Steuben

0.51%

0.52%

-0.01%

-21.85%

Wabash

0.50%

0.55%

-0.05%

-21.75%

Greene

0.50%

0.54%

-0.04%

-15.44%

Adams

0.49%

0.54%

-0.05%

-20.92%

Jefferson

0.49%

0.53%

-0.04%

-14.48%

Wells

0.47%

0.50%

-0.03%

-17.65%

Jasper

0.47%

0.48%

-0.01%

-16.58%

Posey

0.46%

0.49%

-0.03%

-23.63%

Clinton

0.45%

0.48%

-0.03%

-30.23%

Ripley

0.44%

0.48%

-0.04%

-10.24%

Jennings

0.43%

0.43%

0.00%

-23.61%

Clay

0.41%

0.44%

-0.03%

-25.83%

Washington

0.41%

0.43%

-0.02%

-10.59%

White

0.39%

0.42%

-0.03%

-27.38%

Randolph

0.39%

0.45%

-0.06%

-21.51%

Franklin

0.39%

0.40%

-0.01%

-6.49%

Decatur

0.38%

0.41%

-0.03%

+23.45%

Spencer

0.37%

0.40%

-0.03%

+20.67%

Daviess

0.38%

0.43%

-0.05%

-15.38%

LaGrange

0.34%

0.36%

-0.02%

-21.91%

Fayette

0.34%

0.38%

-0.04%

-16.97%

Starke

0.34%

0.36%

-0.02%

+12.83%

Fulton

0.33%

0.35%

-0.02%

-23.25%

Caroll

0.32%

0.35%

-0.03%

-23.96%

Sullivan

0.32%

0.34%

-0.02%

-19.08%

Scott

0.32%

0.35%

-0.03%

-9.23%

Perry

0.31%

0.34%

-0.03%

+22.91%

Jay

0.30%

0.33%

-0.03%

-24.79%

Owen

0.30%

0.31%

-0.01%

-22.06%

Brown

0.29%

0.30%

-0.01%

-21.75%

Orange

0.29%

0.35%

-0.06%

-18.17%

Rush

0.28%

0.30%

-0.02%

-31.66%

Tipton

0.28%

0.32%

-0.04%

-28.04%

Fountain

0.27%

0.32%

+0.05%

-21.30%

Vermillion

0.26%

0.28%

-0.02%

+15.51%

Parke

0.25%

0.28%

-0.03%

-17.24%

Pulaski

0.22%

0.23%

-0.01%

-21.00%

Newton

0.22%

0.24%

-0.02%

-18.31%

Pike

0.22%

0.25%

-0.03%

-12.72%

Blackford

0.20%

0.22%

-0.02%

-28.46%

Martin

0.18%

0.20%

-0.02%

-8.99%

Crawford

0.17%

0.19%

-0.02%

-12.55%

Warren

0.15%

0.16%

0.01%

-20.25%

Benton

0.14%

0.16%

-0.02%

-25.38%

Switzerland

0.13%

0.15%

-0.02%

-10.28%

Union

0.12%

0.14%

-0.02%

-11.51%

Ohio

0.11%

0.12%

-0.01%

-3.19%


The table above indicates that 11 of Obama's winning counties are within the top 17 largest counties in Indiana. The other 4 counties are very small counties. Those 11 large counties carry disproportionate electoral power due to their size: those 11 counties make for 11.92% of 92 counties (numberically) but these 11 counties that went for Obama accounted for 42.38% of the total PV in INDIANA. Even so, had Obama carried these counties with 100% of the vote, that would not have been enough to win. This also disproves that myth that Obama only won all the big counties. He did not. McCain also won 6 of the 17 largest counties in INDIANA.


If we take all 15 counties that Obama won, add them up and take the average percentages and compare those same counties to 2004, we see almost exactly the same partisan shift (+21.82%) as for the state as a whole (+21.71%):



Obama „15“

Obama %

McCain %

Other %

Raw margin

Margin %

2008

60.34%

38.55%

1.11%

+266,707

+21.79%

2004

49.56%

49.59%

0.85%

+277

+0.03%

Diff:

+10.77%

-11.04%

+0.26%

+266,984

+21.82%


The table above is also the last set of calculations in the excel data mentioned above .


Further, the argument that the black vote in Indy stole the election does not hold up. The pattern of a rougly 20% or more shift to the left in the state happened in 58 counties, and 48 of those were overwhelmingly white GOP counties. As a matter of fact, there are less black voters in IN that either OH or PA.


Also, the argument that the chicago media market took control of the upper NW part of the state does not hold: Lake County, which is right in this corner, trended only +11.45% more democratic than in 2004, well under the state trend. Neighboring Porter County had a +15.53% democratic trend, also under the state trend. Neignboring LaPorte, with +22.40% dem trend, was indeed in line with the state trend; St. Joseph with +19.47, was just slightly under the state trend, and directly under St. Joseph, Stark county, with +12.83% dem trend, also well under the state trend. If these counties that are closest to the Chicago media market were to have been controlled so tightly by the Obama team from Illinois, then these counties should have posted partisan shifts well ABOVE the state trend, not below.


As for liberal bastions growing, it is true that Marion County jumped from 13.00% to 13.80% of the state PV take. Likewise, Monroe County (IU) jumped from 2.04% to 2.30% of the state PV take, but this combined increased of 1.06% cannot account for +10.65% percent increase in the state total for Obama over Kerry from 2004. No, those votes must have come from somewhere else as well.


The complaint that Barr ruined it for McCain looks feasable on paper: Barr took 1.06% of the PV in IN, the margin between Obama and McCain was +1.03%. So, if every single Barr voter had gone for McCain, then McCain would have won. The only problem with this is that the Birch society is big in certain counties in IN, and were Barr not on the ballot, then most of those voters would have simply stayed home, either because they are died-in-the-wool libertarians or they were disgruntled republicans who wanted to cast a vote in protest over McCain's nomination in the first place. Had Barr not been on the ballot in IN, ithen the statistics would have shifted slightly, Obama's +28,391 vote margin over McCain would have carried more weight without Barr votes also in the mix and therefore Obama would have surely come over 50%. So, it is more likely than not that the absence of a Barr candidacy in IN would not have shifted the state to McCain, but rather, it would have turned a high minority win for Obama into a lean majority win.


When we look at the data with a discerning eye, then the truth is that a large chunk of the the core of the republican voters abandoned McCain in INDIANA, to some degree in every single county, but by more than the national partisan shift in 85 of 92 counties. Had those rural counties voted for McCain the way they voted for Bush in 2004, then, in spite of massive voter registration on the part of the Obama team and massive gains in the Indianapolis area, McCain would have won INDIANA.


There can be no doubt about it: the rural counties in INDIANA, even though Obama lost most of them, contributed significantly to his win. Lots and lots of little fish add up to one big fish!


Ramifications for the GOP: this is no longer 1932, where IN actually went for FDR by less than the national swing. In 2008, IN lead the pack in having the largest cross-party shift of the cycle. Add to this that the rural counties went for the GOP but with drastically weakened margins leads to the conclusion that the GOP should not take for granted that those rural voters will revert back to the republican party in 2012. More likely is that INDIANA voters will decide whether or not to give Obama four more years based solely on the work he does in the first four years.

Indiana 2008 – County by County - Part II

Indiana 2008 – County by County - Part II


Part I is here.


But there is more. As I was calculating, remembering the statewide partisan shift of +21.71%, I began seeing small rural county after small rural county where Obama gained approximately 10-11%, McCain lost 11-12%, the „other“ vote practically doubled to about 1.5-2.0% and the partisan shift was between 21-24%.


To prove this point, here is a table of all 92 counties, in descending order of partisan shift. Also included is the county's % of the statewide PV from 2008 and 2004, plus the difference between the two.The smaller the percent, the smaller the county.


EXAMPLE: Marion county comprised 13.00% of the PV in INDIANA in 2004, and 13.80% of the PV in INDIANA in 2008, a +0.80% growth rate. You will see that for most counties, the growth rate or rate of decline is negligible. And don't forget: a negate partisan shift in red (GOP) means the same thing as a positive partisan shift in blue (DEM), so every value for the partisan shift in this table is a movement toward the Democratic party, regardless of color.


County

% of 2008 PV

% of 2004 PV

% shift

Partisan shift

Dubois

0.67%

0.69%

-0.03%

-33.99%

Rush

0.28%

0.30%

-0.02%

-31.66%

Tippecanoe

2.49%

2.12%

+0.37%

+30.85%

Montgomery

0.56%

0.59%

-0.03%

-30.69%

Clinton

0.45%

0.48%

-0.03%

-30.23%

Elkhardt

2.60%

2.49%

+0.11%

-29.54%

Delaware

1.82%

1.94%

-0.13%

+28.77

Cass

0.57%

0.56%

+0.01%

-28.55%

Blackford

0.20%

0.22%

-0.02%

-28.46%

Tipton

0.28%

0.32%

-0.04%

-28.04%

White

0.39%

0.42%

-0.03%

-27.38%

Hamilton

4.70%

4.25%

-0.45%

-26.89%

Marion

13.81%

13.00%

+0.80%

+26.40%

Madison

2.08%

2.22%

-0.14%

+25.94%

Clay

0.41%

0.44%

-0.03%

-25.83%

Benton

0.14%

0.16%

-0.02%

-25.38%

Henry

0.77%

0.83%

-0.06%

-25.15%

Jay

0.30%

0.33%

-0.03%

-24.79%

Putnam

0.53%

0.53%

0.00

-24.62%

Grant

0.96%

1.11%

-0.15%

-24.30%

Hendricks

2.36%

2.12%

+0.24%

-24.24%

Boone

0.97%

0.93%

-0.04%

-24.13%

Monroe

2.30%

2.04%

+0.26%

+23.98%

Caroll

0.32%

0.35%

-0.03%

-23.96%

Noble

0.62%

0.64%

-0.02%

-23.89%

Shelby

0.64%

0.65%

-0.01%

-23.88%

Bartholomew

1.13%

1.16%

-0.03%

-23.68%

Posey

0.46%

0.49%

-0.03%

-23.63%

Jennings

0.43%

0.43%

0.00%

-23.61%

Decatur

0.38%

0.41%

-0.03%

+23.45%

Fulton

0.33%

0.35%

-0.02%

-23.25%

Jackson

0.63%

0.66%

-0.03%

-23.08%

Perry

0.31%

0.34%

-0.03%

+22.91%

Allen

5.46%

5.25%

+0.21%

-22.89%

Marshall

0.67%

0.72%

-0.05%

-22.81%

Howard

1.40%

1.50%

-0.10%

-22.79%

Johnson

2.14%

2.08%

+0.06%

-22.70%

LaPorte

1.70%

1.73%

-0.03%

+22.50%

Miami

0.51%

0.55%

-0.04%

-22.46%

Huntington

0.59%

0.63%

-0.04%

-22.34%

Vigo

1.59%

1.61%

-0.02%

+22.28%

Owen

0.30%

0.31%

-0.01%

-22.06%

LaGrange

0.34%

0.36%

-0.02%

-21.91%

Steuben

0.51%

0.52%

-0.01%

-21.85%

Brown

0.29%

0.30%

-0.01%

-21.75%

Wabash

0.50%

0.55%

-0.05%

-21.75%

INDIANA

100.00%

100.00%

0.00%

+21.71%

DeKalb

0.62%

0.62%

0.00%

-21.54%

Randolph

0.39%

0.45%

-0.06%

-21.51%

Fountain

0.27%

0.32%

+0.05%

-21.30%

Morgan

1.05%

1.05%

0.00%

-21.13%

Knox

0.60%

0.64%

-0.04%

-21.05%

Pulaski

0.22%

0.23%

-0.01%

-21.00%

Adams

0.49%

0.54%

-0.05%

-20.92%

Spencer

0.37%

0.40%

-0.03%

+20.67%

Vanderburgh

2.82%

2.86%

-0.04%

+20.43%

Whitley

0.55%

0.55%

0.00%

-20.30%

Warren

0.15%

0.16%

0.01%

-20.25%

Hancock

1.24%

1.13%

-0.11%

-20.15%

Kosciuosko

1.09%

1.15%

-0.06%

-19.64%

St. Joseph

4.30%

4.40%

-0.10%

+19.47%

Sullivan

0.32%

0.34%

-0.02%

-19.08%

Newton

0.22%

0.24%

-0.02%

-18.31%

Lawrence

0.67%

0.72%

-0.05%

-18.21%

Orange

0.29%

0.35%

-0.06%

-18.17%

Warrick

1.04%

1.05%

-0.01%

-17.70%

Wells

0.47%

0.50%

-0.03%

-17.65%

Parke

0.25%

0.28%

-0.03%

-17.24%

Wayne

1.04%

1.12%

-0.08%

-17.17%

Fayette

0.34%

0.38%

-0.04%

-16.97%

Jasper

0.47%

0.48%

-0.01%

-16.58%

Porter

2.68%

2.63%

+0.05%

+15.53%

Vermillion

0.26%

0.28%

-0.02%

+15.51%

Greene

0.50%

0.54%

-0.04%

-15.44%

Daviess

0.38%

0.43%

-0.05%

-15.38%

Jefferson

0.49%

0.53%

-0.04%

-14.48%

Starke

0.34%

0.36%

-0.02%

+12.83%

Pike

0.22%

0.25%

-0.03%

-12.72%

Crawford

0.17%

0.19%

-0.02%

-12.55%

Gibson

0.55%

0.59%

-0.04%

-12.48%

Union

0.12%

0.14%

-0.02%

-11.51%

Lake

7.59%

7.62%

-0.03%

+11.45%

Washington

0.41%

0.43%

-0.02%

-10.59%

Switzerland

0.13%

0.15%

-0.02%

-10.28%

Ripley

0.44%

0.48%

-0.04%

-10.24%

Harrison

0.66%

0.70%

-0.04%

-9.95%

USA

--

--

--

+9.72%

Scott

0.32%

0.35%

-0.03%

-9.23%

Clark

1.73%

1.72%

+0.01%

-9.11%

Martin

0.18%

0.20%

-0.02%

-8.99%

Floyd

1.33%

1.37%

-0.04%

-7.65%

Franklin

0.39%

0.40%

-0.01%

-6.49%

Ohio

0.11%

0.12%

-0.01%

-3.19%

Dearborn

0.81%

0.85%

-0.04%

-1.46%


From this table, we can see that all 92 counties trended democratic, and that 85 of those 92 counties in INDIANA trended more democratic than the national trend. (+9.72)


We can also see that 46 counties had partisan shifts greater than the shift for the entire state (+21.71%)



Here a numeric breakdown:


Partisan-shift range

No. of Counties

% of 92

+30% and higher

5

0.54%

+25% to 25.99%

12

13.01%

+20% to +24.99%

41

44.57%

+15% to +19.99%

16

17.39%

+10% to +14.99%

10

10.87%

+5% to +9.99%

6

6.52%

+1% to +4.99%

2

2.17%



Here a prime example:


Allen county. Obama lost Allen county 47.41% to McCain's 51.75%, turning the county into a close race. Obama improved on Kerry's percent from 2004 by +11.37%. McCain did -11.63% worse than Bush did in 2004, causing a partisan shift of 22.89% toward the democrats. But looking at the raw vote totals shows us how Obama won INDIANA overall: McCain fell 4,220 votes short of Bush's raw vote total in Allen county from 2004, but Obama added 24,553 votes over Kerry's total. So, in spite of the fact that Obama lost this county, he picked up oodles and oodles of votes. Take a look again at the excel document and you will be able to see this phenomenon throughout the entire state: in the overwhelmingly white rural counties as well as in the large urban and suburban counties, Obama racks up a huge increase in votes, McCain falls somewhat (or sometimes, very) short of Bush's total from 2004, and either republican margins are decidedly increased, or in the case of 11 counties, those 11 counties flip.


More in Part III .