04 November 2008

FINAL POLL CONVERGENCE, No. 12

Here the states that had updates from 10/26-11/04, 2008:


10/26: CO, IA, VA, MO, OH, IL, WI, IA, NH, PA, CT / TN, AR, AZ, AZ, KY, GA, MO, WV, AL

20: 11 Obama / 9 McCain


10/27: CA, CO, FL, FL, FL, IA, MO, MO, NY, NC, NC, NV, NH, OH, OH, OR, PA, VA, VA, VA, VA, VA, WA / AZ, AZ, IN, NC, OK, WV / MO

50: 34 Obama /15 McCain / 1 TIE


10/28: CO, FL, OH, OH, NV, NV, NH, NJ, PA, PA, PA, WI , VT, WA / MS, MT, GA, AR, AZ, IN / NC

71: 48 Obama /21 McCain / 2 TIES


10/29: CO, CO, FL, FL, FL, NV, MI, MN,NH, NC, NY, OH, OH, OH, PA, PA, PA, PA, PA, VA, VA, WA, DE, MA / LA, GA, MO, AL, AL, KS

101: 72 Obama /27 McCain / 2 TIES


10/30: CO, CO, FL, IN, IA, MI, MN, MN, NV, NH, NH, NH, NC, NC, NC, NC, NJ, OH, OH, PA, PA, PA, PA, VA, VA, WI / ID, SC, TX, KY, MT, IN, SD, SC, OK, AZ, AZ, UT,

139: 98 Obama /39 McCain / 2 TIES


10/31: NM, CO, CO, MN, MI, MI,NJ, NJ, NH, NH, NH, NH, NC, NC, OH, OR, OR, OR, WI, VA / WV, MO, AZ , AZ, AK, GA, GA, KY, MT, MT, ND, LA, MS, WY / IN, NC, MO

176: 118 Obama /53 McCain / 5 TIES


11/01: CA, FL, NJ, PA, PA, PA, OR, WA / SD, AR, UT / IN, FL

189: 126 Obama /56 McCain / 7 TIES


11/02: CO, FL, IL, IA, ME, MN, MN, NV, NM, NM, OH, PA, PA, PA, PA, PA, VA, VA, VA / KY, KY, MO, NC, OH /

212: 144 Obama /61 McCain / 7 TIES


11/03: CO, FL,FL, FL, FL, FL, IN, ME, MI, MO, MO, MT, NV, NV, NJ, NC, NC, OH, OH, OH, OH, PA, PA, PA, PA, VA, VA, WA, WA, WI / AK, AK, FL, FL, GA, GA, GA, GA, IN, NC, NC, NC, OH, WV / MO, MO, OH,

256: 174 Obama /72 McCain / 10 TIES


11/04: FL, NV, OH, PA, VA / IN, NC / MO

264: 179 Obama /74 McCain / 11 TIES



Polls from all 50 states, alphabetical:

grey shading = polls within the calculations

yellow shading = polls that have been cycled out or replaced by repeaters.

Any state with +10.00 margin average is listed as “safe” for that party.

Alabama – FIREWALL GOP


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

34.33

53.66

2.33

9.67

+19.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUSA

10/29

36

61

2

1

25

USA

10/26

33

46

--

21

13

Capital

10/24

34

54

5

7

20

SUSA

10/10

35

62

3

1

27

Rasmussen

09/24

39

60

--

2

21

USA

09/22

25

52

--

23

27

SUSA

09/19

34

64

1

1

30

ARG

09/17

36

58

1

5

22

CSRC

09/11

35

55

1

9

20

Rasmussen

08/04

38

58

2

2

20

CSRC

08/07

34

47

3

16

13

Zogby 34

07/08

35.8

47.3

9.6*

7.3

11.5

Rasmussen

07/01

36

51

7

5

15

Rasmussen

05/29

32

60

 

 

28

SUSA

05/26

34

57

 

 

23

Capital

04/26

36

55

 

 

19

SUSA

04/17

32

64

 

 

32

Rasmussen

04/07

37

55

 

 

18

P. Register

03/31

33

57

 

 

24

SUSA

03/20

35

62

 

 

27

SUSA 50

03/06

40

54

 

 

14

SUSA

02/22

34

58

 

 

24

SUSA

01/18

29

63

 

 

34

SUSA

12/19

36

54

 

 

18

SUSA

11/30

35

56

 

 

21


*inc Nader 0.4 / Barr 4.3

Bush 2004 margin: +25.62

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.25

------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Alaska – safe GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

40.30

54.88

0.86

3.16

+14.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dittman

11/03

37

56

--

7

19

Hays

11/03

44.8

48.3

2.0

5.1

3.5

R 2000

10/31

39

58

1

2

19

Rasmussen

10/29

41

57

1

1

16

Ivan Moore

10/21

42

53

--

5

11

R 2000

10/17

38

57

2

3

19

Rasmussen

10/07

40

55

1

3

15

R 2000

09/19

38

55

2

5

17

ARG

09/17

39

55

2

3

16

Rasmussen

09/10

33

64

--

3

31

Ivan Moore

09/05

35

54

--

11

19

Am. Viewpoint (R)

09/04

33

57

--

10

24

Hayes

08/12

45

40

4

10

5

Ivan Moore

08/01

44

47

--

9

3

Rasmussen

07/31

39

44

7

10

5

Rasmussen

07/21

40

45

7

7

5

KOS (D)

07/18

41

51

--

8

10

GSG

06/23

42

44

3

11

2

Rasmussen

05/16

41

50

 

 

9

Research 2000

05/15

42

49

 

 

7

Rasmussen

04/10

43

48

 

 

5

SUSA 50

03/06

43

48

 

 

5


Bush 2004 margin: +25.55

GOP combined margin average 1960-2004: +15.80


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arizona- lean GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

44.86

49.29

1.29

4.29

+4.43

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ARG

10/31

46

50

1

3

4

R 2000

10/31

47

48

3

2

1

Mason-Dixon

10/30

44

48

2

6

4

CNN/Time

10/30

46

53

--

1

7

Cronkite/8Ball

10/28

44

46

--

12

2

NAU

10/27

41

49

2

6

8

Rasmussen

10/27

46

51

1

2

5

Zimmerman (D)

10/26

41.5

43.5

--

10

2

NewWest

10/26

44

48

5

3

4

Rasmussen

09/30

38

59

1

2

21

ARG

09/17

39

56

1

3

17

Mason-Dixon

08/24

41

47

--

12

6

AZU

08/20

30

40

2

28

10

Rasmussen

08/04

38

57

2

3

19

PPP (D)

08/04

40

52

--

8

12

Zogby 34

07/08

42.3

39.2

13.3*

5.2

3.1

Rasmussen

06/29

40

49

6

5

9

AZU

06/24

28

38

--

34

10

BRC

05/22

39

50

 

 

11

ASU

05/01

38

47

 

 

9

Rasmussen

04/21

37

57

 

 

20

N. Ariz. Uni.

04/11

33

55

 

 

22

SUSA 50

03/06

39

51

 

 

12

Rasmussen

12/04

33

55

 

 

22


 *Barr 7 / Nader 1.6 / someone else 5

Bush 2004 margin: +10.47

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +14.60


--------------------------------------------------------------

Arkansas - safe GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

41.25

52.00

1.00

5.75

+10.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ARG

11/01

44

51

1

3

7

Rasmussen

10/28

44

54

1

1

10

R 2000

10/26

41

52

2

5

11

U Ark

10/23

36

51

--

14

15

Rasmussen

09/25

42

51

3

4

9

ARG

09/23

41

52

--

5

11

Rasmussen

07/17

37

47

5

11

10

Zogby 34

07/08

40.7

39.0

12.4*

7.9

1.7

Rasmussen

06/15

39

48

8

5

9

Rasmussen

05/15

33

57

6

3

24

Rasmussen

03/22

30

59

 

 

29

SUSA 50

03/06

33

53

 

 

20



*inc Nader 0.5 / Barr 4.1

Bush 2004 margin: +9.76

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.53


----------------------------------------------------------------------

California- FIREWALL DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

58.00

34.00

2.75

5.25

+24.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUSA

11/01

60

36

2

2

24

Field

10/30

55

33

4

8

22

Rasmussen

10/27

61

34

3

2

27

PPIC (D)

10/23

56

33

2

9

23

SUSA

10/17

59

35

3

3

24

Rasmussen

10/11

56

40

1

3

16

SUSA

10/07

55

39

4

2

16

SUSA

09/25

53

43

3

1

10

Rasmussen

09/23

56

39

2

3

17

ARG

09/21

53

39

2

6

14

Field

09/17

52

36

3

9

16

PPIC (D)

08/28

48**

39

3

10

9

Rasmussen

08/22

54

41

2

3

13

PPIC (D)

07/31

50

35

2

13

15

Rasmussen

07/26

50

38

6

6

12

Field

07/16

54

30

4

12

24

Zogby 34

07/08

51.7

32.2

10.5*

5.6

19.5

Rasmussen

06/24

58

30

5

7

28

SUSA

06/19

53

41

--

6

12

Field

05/29

52

35

 

 

17

LA Times

05/24

47

40

 

 

7

PPIC

05/22

54

37

 

 

17

Rasmussen

05/22

52

38

 

 

14

SUSA

05/21

49

41

 

 

8

SUSA

04/17

50

43

 

 

13

Rasmussen

04/17

50

43

 

 

13

PPIC

03/27

49

40

 

 

9

SUSA

03/20

54

40

 

 

14

Rasmussen

03/14

53

38

 

 

15

SUSA 50

03/06

51

40

 

 

11

SUSA

02/22

61

34

 

 

27

SUSA

01/23

50

44

 

 

6

SUSA

12/21

52

39

 

 

11

Field

12/20

50

36

 

 

14



**The PPIC released on 08/28 was taken two weeks before.

* inc Nader 1.4 / Barr 4.6

Kerry 2004 margin: +9.95

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.96


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colorado – DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

51.00

44.38

0.5

3.75

+6.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

11/03

51

47

1

1

4

Mason-Dixon

11/02

49

44

--

7

5

ARG

10/31

52

45

--

4

7

PPP (D)

10/31

54

44

--

2

10

NatJournal

10/30

48

44

--

8

4

Marist

10/30

51

45

2

2

6

CNN/Time

10/29

53

45

--

2

8

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

50

41

1

4

9

Ins. Adv (R)

10/28

53

45

--

2

8

Rasmussen

10/27

50

46

1

2

4

RckyMtnNews

10/26

52

40

2

2

12

Zogby

10/23

48.4

48.1

3.2

0.3

0.3

Rasmussen

10/20

51

46

--

3

5

Rasmussen

10/17

52

45

1

2

7

Zogby 11

10/16

47.5

46.5

3.3

2.7

1

CNN/Time

10/15

51

47

--

2

4

Suffolk

10/14

47

43

3

6

4

Quinnipiac

10/14

52

43

1

5

9

PPP (D)

10/11

52

42

--

6

10

Ins. Adv (R)

10/07

51

45

1

3

6

Rasmussen

10/06

51

45

3

2

6

Mason-Dixon

10/04

44

44

--

12

0

Ciruli

10/02

44

43

3

10

1

Rasmussen

09/29

49

48

1

2

1

ARG

09/26

45

48

3

4

3

Rasmussen

09/24

50

47

1

2

3

CNN/Time

09/24

51

47

--

2

4

Ins. Adv

09/24

50

41

3

6

9

PPP (D)

09/23

51

44

--

5

7

Quinnipiac

09/23

49

45

1

5

4

Ins. Adv (R)

09/18

51

41

2

6

10

NatJournal

09/18

45

44

--

6

1

ARG

09/17

44

46

3

7

2

Rasmussen

09/15

46

48

4

2

2

Zogby

09/13

45.5

47.5

--

7

2

Ins. Adv. (R)

09/11

49

46

1

4

3

PPP (D)

09/11

47

46

--

7

1

Rasmussen

09/08

49

46

2

2

3

Tarrance (R)

09/04

45

47

--

8

2

Hill

08/28

43

40

--

17

3

CNN-Time

08/27

46

47

 

 

1

Suffolk

08/25

44

39

2

12

5

Mason-Dixon

08/24

46

43

--

11

3

Quinnipiac

08/24

46

47

2

5

1

Zogby

08/22

44

38

10

8

6

Rocky Mt.

08/15

41

44

5

10

3

Rasmussen

08/14

48

49

1

2

1

PPP (D)

08/11

48

44

--

7

4

Frederick

07/25

45

41

--

14

4

Quinnipiac

07/24

44

46

3

7

2

Rasmussen

07/22

49

42

5

4

7

PPP (D)

07/14

47

43

--

10

4

Zogby 34

07/08

40.4

37.5

14.2*

7.9

2.9

Quinnipiac

06/26

49

44

2

5

5

Rasmussen

06/19

43

41

8

7

2

SUSA

05/21

48

42

 

 

6

Rasmussen

04/18

47

43

 

 

4

Rasmussen

03/19

46

46

 

 

TIE

SUSA 50

03/06

50

41

 

 

9


*inc. Nader 2 / Barr 8.4

Bush 2004 margin: +4.67

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.41


----------------------------------------------------------------

Connecticut – safe DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

57.00

35.67

1.33

5.67

+21.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UConn

10/26

56

31

1

12

25

SUSA

10/16

59

37

2

2

22

Rasmussen

10/16

56

39

1

3

17

Pulsar

10/02

49

35

--

16

14

SUSA

09/26

54

38

4

4

16

ARG

09/20

54

39

1

5

15

Rasmussen

09/18

53

41

0

5

12

Rasmussen

08/04

53

40

2

6

+13

Zogby 34

07/08

47.5

32.4

10.2*

9.9

15.1

Quinnipiac

07/02

56

35

1

7

21

Rasmussen

05/30

47

44

--

9

3

Quinnipiac

03/27

52

35

--

13

17

Rasmussen

03/15

50

38

--

12

12

SUSA 50

03/06

55

34

--

11

21



*inc. Nader 2.1 / Barr 5.2


Kerry 2004 margin: +10.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.03


---------------------------------------------------------------

Delaware – safe DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

58.17

37.47

1.33

2.37

+20.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUSA

10/29

63

33

2

1

30

Rasmussen

10/14

56

41

1

2

15

WCU

10/10

55.5

38.4

2

4.1

17.1

SUSA

09/24

57

37

3

2

20

ARG

09/17

51

40

1

8

11

Rasmussen

09/14

55

43

1

2

12

SUSA 50

03/06

50

41

--

9

9


Kerry 2004 margin: +7.59

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.05


------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DC – FIREWALL DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

ARG

09/17

82

13

-

4

69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Kerry 2004 margin: +79.84

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +69.56

Florida – lean DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

48.69

47.00

1.07

3.22

+1.69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby FINAL

11/04

49.2

48.0

2.6

1.0

1.2

SUSA

11/03

50

47

2

1

3

Datamar

11/03

47

47

1

3

1

Strat. Vis (R)

11/03

49

47

1

3

2

Rasmussen

11/03

49

50

--

1

1

Quinnipiac

11/03

47

45

2

6

2

PPP (D)

11/03

50

48

--

2

2

Zogby Final

11/03

47.5

46.2

3.3

3.0

1.3

Mason-Dixon

11/02

47

45

--

8

2

Datamar

11/01

47

47

2

4

0

ARG

11/01

50

46

1

4

4

NatJournal

10/30

45

44

--

11

1

CNN/Time

10/29

51

47

--

2

4

Quinnipiac

10/29

47

45

1

6

2

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

45

43

2

3

2

Times/Bloomberg

10/28

50

43

1

6

7

Datamar

10/28

49

44

3.0

3

5

Suffolk

10/27

49

44

1

5

5

Rasmussen

10/27

51

47

--

1

4

Zogby

10/27

47.2

46.9

2.8

3.3

0.3

Ins. Adv (R)

10/24

48

47

--

5

1

Strat. Vis (R)

10/24

46

48

1

5

2

St. Pete /Times

10/23

49

42

2

7

7

Quinnipiac

10/23

49

44

1

7

5

Zogby

10/23

48.8

45.2

3.5

2.5

3.6

Mason-Dixon

10/22

45

46

2

7

1

PPP (D)

10/21

48

47

--

5

1

Rasmussen

10/20

48

49

1

2

1

Hamilton (D)

10/18

47

43

--

10

4

R 2000

10/17

49

45

2

3

4

SUSA

10/17

47

49

2

2

2

Zogby 11

10/16

48.2

47.1

3.2

1.4

1.1

CNN/Time

10/15

51

46

--

3

5

Ins. Adv

10/15

48

44

1

7

4

Datamar

10/15

47

42

--

11

5

Rasmussen

10/13

51

46

1

2

5

R 2000

10/11

49

44

1

5

5

Strat. Vis (R)

10/09

52

44

1

3

8

Rasmussen

10/09

50

47

0

3

3

Mason-Dixon

10/07

48

46

1

6

2

Rasmussen

10/06

52

45

1

2

7

Suffolk

10/01

46

42

--

6

4

Ins. Adv (R)

10/01

49

46

1

4

3

CNN/TIME

10/01

51

47

--

2

4

Quinnipiac

10/01

51

43

1

5

8

PPP (D)

09/30

49

46

--

6

3

Rasmussen

09/29

47

47

1

5

0

SUSA

09/28

47

48

3

2

1

ARG

09/26

47

46

1

6

1

Rasmussen

09/26

47

48

1

4

1

Strat. Vis (R)

09/24

45

48

2

5

3

Mason-Dixon

09/23

47

45

1

7

2

Ras/FOX

09/22

46

51

--

3

5

Herald

09/21

45

47

--

7

2

Times/Sent.

09/21

45

46

--

9

1

NatJournal

09/18

44

44

--

12

0

ARG

09/18

46

46

3

5

0

SUSA

09/18

45

51

1

2

6

Time/CNN

09/17

48

48

3

1

0

Rasmussen

09/15

44

49

4

3

5

Zogby

09/13

41.8

52.1

--

6.1

10.3

Ins. Adv (R)

09/11

42

50

4

4

8

Quinnipiac

09/11

43

50

1

6

7

PPP (D)

09/09

45

50

--

5

5

Rasmussen

09/08

48

48

2

2

0

Mason-Dixon

08/27

45

44

--

11

1

Strat. Vision (R)

08/27

42

49

1

8

7

Quinnipiac

08/26

43

47

2

8

4

Chambers (D)

08/25

39

42

--

13

3

Zogby

08/22

40

43

6

11

3

ARG

08/21

46

47

--

7

1

Rasmussen

08/19

46

48

3

3

2

Insider Adv.

08/12

44

48

3

5

4

PPP (D)

08/06

44

47

--

8

3

SUSA

08/04

44

50

3

3

6

McLaughlin (R)

08/04

40

45

 

 

5

Quinnipiac

07/31

46

44

2

7

2

Rasmussen

07/23

46

45

4

6

1

ARG

07/22

45

47

--

8

2

WRL

07/09

47.2

44.5

--

8.3

2.7

Zogby 34

07/08

38.8

43.1

10.9*

7.2

4.3

Strat. Vision (R)

07/02

41

49

1

9

8

Rasmussen

07/01

41

48

6

5

7

PPP (D)

07/01

46

44

--

10

2

Rasmussen

06/19

39

47

6

8

8

ARG

06/18

49

44

--

7

5

Quinnipiac

06/18

47

43

2

8

4

Quinnipiac

05/22

41

45

 

 

4

Rasmussen

05/21

40

50

 

 

10

Quinnipiac

05/01

43

44

 

 

1

Rasmussen

04/14

38

53

 

 

15

Quinnipiac

04/02

37

46

 

 

9

PPP

03/18

39

50

 

 

11

Rasmussen

03/16

43

47

 

 

4

SUSA 50

03/06

45

47

 

 

2

Mason-Dixon

02/25

37

47

 

 

10

Quinnipiac

02/14

39

41

 

 

2


*inc. Nader 1.5 / Barr 5.5


Bush 2004 margin: +5.01

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +8.65

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Georgia – lean GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

46.29

50.14

1.57

2.29

+3.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ins. Adv (R)

11/03

47

48

3

2

1

Strat. Vis (R)

11/03

46

50

1

3

4

SUSA

11/03

45

52

2

2

7

PPP (D)

11/03

48

50

2

1

2

Rasmussen

10/31

47

52

0

1

5

R 2000

10/31

44

47

3

6

3

CNN/Time

10/29

47

52

--

1

5

Ins. Adv (R)

10/28

47

48

2

3

1

Mason-Dixon

10/26

43

49

--

8

6

Strat. Vis (R)

10/24

45

51

2

2

6

Ins. Adv (R)

10/24

48

47

2

3

1

Rasmussen

10/23

46

51

0

3

5

Dem Corps (D)

10/20

44

46

4

6

2

R 2000

10/17

43

49

3

5

6

CNN/Time

10/15

45

53

--

2

8

SUSA

10/13

43

51

4

2

8

Ins. Adv (R)

10/10

46

49

2

3

3

Strat. Vis (R)

10/09

43

50

2

5

7

Rasmussen

10/08

45

54

0

1

9

R 2000

10/06

43

50

3

4

7

Ins. Adv (R)

10/01

44

50

2

4

6

SUSA

09/30

44

52

2

2

8

ARG

09/22

39

57

--

4

18

Ins. Adv (R)

09/18

43

51

2

4

8

Rasmussen

09/18

43

54

0

4

11

POS (R)

09/18

35

56

 

9

21

SUSA

09/17

41

57

1

1

16

Strat. Vis (R)

09/11

39

52

--

9

13

Ins. Adv (R)

09/11

38

56

2

4

18

Rasmussen

08/18

44

53

1

2

9

Rasmussen

07/21

39

48

5

7

9

Zogby 34

07/08

37.6

44.1

11.7*

6.6

6.5

Insider Adv.

07/04

44

46

4

6

2

Strat. Vision (R)

07/02

43

51

3

3

8

Ins Advantage

06/19

43

44

6

7

1

Rasmussen

06/10

41

51

6

2

10

Strategic Vision

05/16

40

54

--

6

14

Rasmussen

05/09

39

53

6

2

14

Rasmussen

03/21

40

53

 

 

13

SUSA 50

03/06

41

54

 

 

13



*inc. Nader 0.2 / Barr 8.4

Bush 2004 margin: +16.60

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.17


------------------------------------------------------------------


Hawaii – FIREWALL DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

65.50

39.50

2.00

3.50

+36.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

09/24

68

27

2

3

41

ARG

09/17

63

32

2

4

31

SUSA 50

03/06

61

31

 

 

30


Kerry 2004 margin: +8.74

DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.01


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Idaho – FIREWALL GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

32.00

55.00

5.00

8.00

23.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Harstad

10/30

32

55

5

8

23

R 2000

09/20

33

62

2

3

39

ARG

09/17

25

68

--

6

43

Rasmussen

09/11

29

68

--

3

39

Gregg Smith

08/28

29

52

2

15

23

Research 2000

07/31

37

53

 

10

15

SUSA 50

03/06

39

52

 

 

13


Bush 2004 margin: +38.12

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44


------------------------------------------------------------------

Illinois – FIREWALL DEM


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

59.05

34.15

1.40

4.05

+24.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

11/02

60

38

--

2

22

R 2000

10/26

59

35

1

5

25

Big 10

10/23

61.2

31.6

1.6

4.2

+29.6

Chicago Tribune

10/21

56

32

3

9

24

Rasmussen

10/15

56

39

0

5

17

R 2000

09/20

56

36

2

6

20

Rasmussen

09/20

56

40

2

2

16

Big 10

09/18

52.9

37.0

2.1

5.6

15.9

ARG

09/17

51

45

1

4

6

Rasmussen

08/18

55

40

1

4

15

Rasmussen

07/09

50

37

4

9

13

Zogby 34

07/08

52.2

31.6

8.8*

7.4

20.6

SUSA 50

03/06

60

31

 

 

29

Research 2000

01/25

58

37

 

 

21


*inc. Nader 1.0 / Barr 4.7

Kerry 2004 margin: +10.34

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.09


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indiana – TOSSUP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

46.59

47.77

1.64

4.00

+1.18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby FINAL

11/04

45.1

50.4

4.50

--

5.3

PPP (D)

11/03

49

48

--

3

1

Zogby Final

11/03

43.9

49.1

4.1

2.9

5.2

ARG

11/01

48

48

1

3

0

Downs

10/31

47

47

2

4

0

Rasmussen

10/30

46

49

1

4

3

Selzer

10/30

46

45

3

6

1

Howey/Gauge

10/28

45

47

--

8

2

Tribune/WSBT

10/28

48

47

--

5

1

Zogby

10/27

44.0

50.2

2.2

3.6

6.2

SUSA

10/24

49

45

3

3

4

Big 10

10/23

51.0

41.5

1.4

3.1

9.5

Zogby

10/23

42.3

52.8

3.8

1.1

10.5

PPP (D)

10/21

48

46

--

6

2

Zogby 11

10/16

44.3

48.5

3.9

3.3

4.2

Rasmussen

10/09

43

50

3

4

7

WISH / R 2000

10/07

46

46

3

5

0

CNN/Time

10/07

46

51

--

3

5

Tribune/WSBT

10/02

45

46

--

6

1

SUSA

09/30

45

48

3

3

3

Rasmussen

09/19

47

49

2

3

2

ARG

09/19

44

47

2

4

3

Big 10

09/18

43.2

46.7

2.4

5.1

3.5

Selzer

09/17

47

44

--

7

3

Time/CNN

09/17

45

51

--

4

6

Howey-Gauge

09/05

43

45

--

7

2

Rasmussen

08/22

43

49

2

6

6

SUSA

08/19

44

50

3

3

6

Zogby 34

07/08

38.8

40.2

11.0*

10.0

1.4

SUSA

06/24

48

47

3

2

1

Selzer

04/25

49

41



 

 

Research 2000

04/25

43

51

 

 

 

SUSA

04/18

44

51

 

 

 

SUSA 50

03/06

41

50

 

 

 



*inc. Nader 0.2 / Barr 7.3

Bush 2004 margin: +20.68

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +13.29


--------------------------------------------------------------------

Iowa – SAFE DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

52.91

40.16

1.83

5.24

+12.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Selzer

11/02

54

37

3

6

16

SUSA

10/30

55

40

3

2

15

Marist

10/27

52

42

1

5

10

Mason-Dixon

10/26

51

40

--

11

11

QuadCity

10/26

54

39

3

4

15

Rasmussen

10/24

52

44

1

3

8

Big 10

10/23

52.4

39.1

1.8

5.7

13.3

SUSA

10/10

54

41

4

5

13

KCCI

10/02

54

39

3

3

15

Rasmussen

09/27

51

43

2

5

8

Marist

09/24

51

41

2

6

10

QuadCity

09/23

53

39

3

5

14

ARG

09/21

51

44

--

5

7

SUSA

09/19

54

43

2

2

11

Big 10

09/18

44.8

44.8

2.1

6.7

0

Selzer

09/14

52

40

3

5

12

CNN-Time

09/03

55

40

--

5

15

U of Iowa

08/19

50

43

--

7

7

Rasmussen

08/11

49

44

2

5

5

Rasmussen

07/14

48

38

7

7

10

Zogby 34

07/08

42.2

37.6

12.4

7.8

4.6

SUSA

06/19

49

45

--

6

4

Rasmussen

06/12

45

38

7

8

7

SUSA

05/27

47

38

 

 

9

Rasmussen

05/15

44

42

 

 

2

Research 2000

04/27

49

41

 

 

8

SUSA

04/17

49

42

 

 

7

Rasmussen

04/06

46

42

 

 

4

SUSA

03/20

50

44

 

 

6

SUSA 50

03/06

50

41

 

 

9

Selzer

02/28

53

36

 

 

17

Rasmussen

02/21

44

41

 

 

3

SUSA

02/19

51

41

 

 

10

SUSA

01/07

55

38

 

 

17

SUSA

12/18

51

39

 

 

12


Bush 2004 margin: +0.67

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.84


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kansas – safe GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

39.00

56.00

2.50

2.50

+17.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUSA

10/29

37

58

3

2

21

SUSA

10/23

41

53

4

2

12

Rasmussen

10/15

41

54

2

3

13

Rasmussen

09/23

38

58

1

3

20

SUSA

09/23

41

53

4

3

12

ARG

09/17

31

63

--

6

32

SUSA

08/22

35

58

4

3

23

Rasmussen

08/13

41

55

1

4

14

Rasmussen

07/16

32

52

9

7

20

Target Point (R)

07/08

36

49

--

15

13

POS/SUSA

06/26

39

50

--

11

11

Rasmussen

06/16

37

47

6

10

10

Cooper & Secrest

06/13

41

45

-

14

4

Research 2000

06/06

41

50

-

9

11

SUSA

05/29

39

49

-

12

10

Rasmussen

05/13

34

55

7

4

21

Research 2000

05/10

33

58

-

9

25

SUSA

04/17

37

54

-

9

17

SUSA

03/20

39

51

 

 

12

SUSA 50

03/06

41

50

 

 

9

SUSA

02/21

44

50

 

 

6

SUSA

01/16

39

53

 

 

14

SUSA

12/19

36

56

 

 

20

SUSA

11/26

37

53

 

 

15



Bush 2004 margin: +25.38

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +19.84


------------------------------------------------------------------


Kentucky - safe GOP



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

41.60

54.00

1.60

3.00

+12.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUSA

11/02

40

56

2

2

16

Mason-Dixon

11/02

42

51

--

7

9

R 2000

10/31

39

56

3

2

17

Rasmussen

10/30

43

55

2

1

12

R 2000

10/24

39

55

3

3

16

Rasmussen

10/23

44

52

1

3

8

SUSA

10/21

41

54

2

3

13

R 2000

10/19

39

53

3

5

14

Rasmussen

10/02

42

52

2

4

10

Mason-Dixon

09/28

41

53

--

6

12

SUSA

09/23

38

57

2

2

19

R 2000

09/19

37

55

2

6

18

ARG

09/17

37

57

1

5

20

SUSA

08/12

37

55

4

3

18

Research 2000

07/31

35

56

--

9

21

Ramussen

07/31

39

49

6

7

10

Zogby 34

07/08

38.6

43.9

9.9*

7.6

5.3

Rasmussen

06/27

35

51

8

6

16

SUSA

06/17

41

53

4

2

12

SUSA

06/03

32

56


--

12


24

Rasmussen

05/25

32

57

 

 

25

Research 2000

05/10

33

58

 

 

25

SUSA

04/17

29

63

 

 

34

SUSA

03/19

28

64

 

 

36

SUSA 50

03/06

33

54

 

 

21

SUSA

01/07

35

54

 

 

19

SUSA

12/19

35

53

 

 

18


Bush 2004 margin: +19.86

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.32


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Louisiana – safe GOP


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

39.77

50.20

0.90

9.50

+10.43

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WWL-TV

10/31

40

43

--

17

3

SELU

10/29

38.3

50.6

1.7

9.5

12.3

Rasmussen

10/23

41

57

1

2

16

Rasmussen

09/27

40

55

2

3

15

ARG

09/17

43

50

1

6

7

Rasmussen

08/19

39

57

2

2

18

Rasmussen

07/14

34

54

6

6

20

Zogby 34

07/08

39.7

47.3

7.8*

5.2

7.6

Southern

07/01

36

52

--

12

16

Rasmussen

06/01

41

50

 

 

9

South. Med

04/14

35

51

 

 

16

Rasmussen

04/11

41

52

 

 

11

SUSA 50

03/06

39

54

 

 

15


*inc. Nader 1.3 / Barr 3.7

Bush 2004 margin: +14.51

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.64

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Maine – safe DEM



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

FINAL AVG:

 

54.78

37.63

2.52

4.27

+17.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUSA

11/03

58

38