27 July 2008

6 upcoming Rasmussen polls - what to look for...

Scott Rasmussen will be bringing out polls in the following states in the last week of July:

 

Nebraska, Mississippi, Kentucky,  Louisiana, Texas and Connecticut.

 

The first thing I notice from this list is that 5 of these states are commonly thought of as “red” states and only one, CT, is commonly thought of as a “blue” state. So, here the list again, color coded:

 

Nebraska, Mississippi, Kentucky,  Louisiana, Texas and Connecticut.

 

Now, here are the most recent stats on these states, so that we can surmise how these polls may look before Rasmussen publishes the numbers. Please remember, the old Rasmussen numbers were all polls without leaners, so we must use the new Rasmussen without leaners in order to get a fair and unskewed comparison:

 

NEBRASKA

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Rasmussen

06/24

36

52

6

6

16

SUSA

06/01

40

49

--

11

9

Average:

 

38

50.5

3

8.5

12.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

05/18

39

50

--

11

11

SUSA 50

03/06

42

45

--

8

3

 

If Obama is experiencing absolutely no bounce from his world-tour, then, if the current trend in NE continues, McCain should maintain at least a +16 lead here, for that was his lead in June, according to Rasmussen. If Rasmussen has McCain coming it at between +9 and+12, however, then this will show a bounce for Obama. And the interesting thing to watch about NE is the elector splitting component of this state (and Maine, of course).

 

To compare:

Bush 2004 margin: +33.22

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44

------------------------------------------------------------

 

MISSISSIPPI

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Research 2000

07/24

42

51

--

7

9

Rasmussen

06/26

44

50

3

3

6

Average>

 

43

50.5

1.5

5

7.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

05/29

44

50

3

3

6

SUSA 50

03/06

41

54

--5

 

13

 

All eyes will be on MS to see if Rasmussen registers different results this time than he has the last two times in a row. It was already an eye-opener to see McCain leading by only +6 in MS in May, but then we saw exactly the same results again from Rasmussen in June, which is a real statistical anomaly for a state that is supposed to be a rock solid GOP state. Liberal numbers crunchers are touting that Obama must only pick up 20% of the white democratic vote in this state (and are assuming that he will take 99% of the black vote) in order to come on top. I am more skeptical, however, considering the demographics of this state, I do think a McCain win here will be closer than the GOP is used to. The upset DEM victory in MS-01 was certainly not a help, either.

 

So, what to look for: if the margin narrows from +6 to between +4 and +5, then Obama is indeed getting a bounce and this state may very well move into the battleground category come September. However, if McCain comes in at +10 or more, then it means that Obama has no bounce here and that the state is reverting to it’s assumed political disposition. So, the Rasmussen numbers this time will be fascinating to see.

 

To compare:

Bush 2004 margin: +19.69

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.66

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------

 

KENTUCKY

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Zogby 34

07/08

38.6

43.9

9.9*

7.6

5.3

Rasmussen

06/27

35

51

8

6

16

SUSA

06/17

41

53

4

2

12

SUSA

06/03

32

56


--

12


24

Average:

 

36.7

51

 

 

14.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

05/25

32

57

 

 

25

Research 2000

05/10

33

58

 

 

25

SUSA

04/17

29

63

 

 

34

SUSA

03/19

28

64

 

 

36

SUSA 50

03/06

33

54

 

 

21

SUSA

01/07

35

54

 

 

19

SUSA

12/19

35

53

 

 

18

 

First, there is no doubt to me that KY is safe GOP this cycle. But the margin has been reduced from an embarrassing blowout margin to a solid landslide margin. RAS had McCain at +25 in May, at +16 in June and the current average is +14.3. If Obama has no bounce, then the margin will stay at +16 or start climbing back to +18 or +20. If Obama, however, does have a bounce, the margin may go down to +14 or +13. The worst case scenario for McCain in KY is +10. He will win KY on election night.

 

To compare:

Bush 2004 margin: +19.86

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.32

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOUISIANA

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Rasmussen

07/14

34

54

6

6

20

Zogby 34

07/08

39.7

47.3

7.8*

5.2

7.6

Southern

07/01

36

52

--

12

16

Rasmussen

06/01

41

50

--

9

9

Average

 

37.7

50.8

 

 

13.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South. Med

04/14

35

51

 

 

16

Rasmussen

04/11

41

52

 

 

11

SUSA 50

03/06

39

54

 

 

15

 

McCain’s margin in LA took a big jump between April and June, according to Rasmussen (from +11 to +20). The current average is +13.1. If McCain stays around +20, then Obama had no bounce. However, if the margin comes under +15, then Obama has a bounce, but it will do him no good here. LA is safe GOP and will stay that way this cycle, I think.

 

To compare:

Bush 2004 margin: +14.51

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.64

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Zogby 34

07/08

39.4

42.2

11.8*

6.6

2.8

Rasmussen

06/27

39

48

6

7

9

TX Lyceum

06/26

38

43

2

17

5

Average:

 

38.8

44.4

 

 

5.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

05/10

39

52

6

3

13

Rasmussen

05/05

43

48

5

3

5

SUSA 50

03/06

46

47

--

7

1

SUSA

02/26

41

49

 

 

8

CNN

02/18

44

52

 

 

9

 

According to Rasmussen, McCain’s margin jumped from +5 to +13 and then shrunk to +9 from May to June. The current margin is +5.6, which is far too lean for a state that is solid GOP. If McCain goes over +10, then this is a good sign for him. But if his margin continues to shrink, then this means that Obama truly has a bounce and that the hispanic vote is indeed moving in his direction. It will be fascinating to see what Rasmussen reports this time.

 

------------------------------------------------------

 

CONNECTICUT

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Zogby 34

07/08

47.5

32.4

10.2*

9.9

15.1

Quinnipiac

07/02

56

35

1

7

21

Average:

 

51.8

33.7

5.6

8.9

18.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

05/30

47

44

--

9

3

Quinnipiac

03/27

52

35

--

13

17

Rasmussen

03/15

50

38

--

12

12

SUSA 50

03/06

55

34

--

11

21

 

Rasmussen has been the only pollster to show this race in single digits, back at the end of May. Since then, Quinnipiac show the race at +21 and Zogby shows it at +15.1, making an average of +18.1, which is well over Kerry’s winning margin from 2004. With or without an Obama bounce, it is reasonable to assume that Rasmussen will show a larger margin for Obama this time, probably around +11 or +12, and since this is a blue state that tends to vacillate a lot, it will be hard to measure any bounce at all. But the chances of RAS showing this race closer than it’s last estimate of +3 are astronomically low.

 

To compare:

Kerry 2004 margin: +10.37

GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.03

 

-----------------------------------------------------------

 

FACIT: in “red” states with margins that are already under expectations, if those margins change little, then this is bad news for McCain. If those margins shrink in some of these states, then it is a sure sign of an Obama bounce. But if those red states have an allergic reaction to his world tour, then those margins may indeed rise. The two most important of these races, imo, are MS and TX. They will tell us a lot about the battleground playing field as it develops.