30 March 2008

50 poll composite - state table according, descending by Obama margin

 

 

 

Here is the same 50 state table of poll composites (inc. DC) from January-March 2008 (see the post before this one), organised from largest to smallest margin for Obama vs. McCain:

 

EV count, March 29, 2008:

 

Obama (24 states): 260

McCain (27 states) : 278

 

Eliminating battlegrounds with margins of 1% or less (shaded in grey):

 

Obama: 245

McCain: 223

Undecided: 70

 

------

Clinton (23 states): 278

McCain (27 states): 250

Tie (1 state): 11

 

Eliminating battlegrounds with margins of 1% or less (shaded in grey):

 

Clinton: 241

McCain: 246

Undecided: 40

Tie: 11

 

Legend:

BO/JM= Obama/McCain matchup

HRC/JM= Clinton/McCain matchup

2004 = the winning margin from the GE in 2004

1948-2004 is the composite margin of those 16 cycles combined.

 

The numbers are color coded:

dark blue = DEM

dark red= GOP

green= battleground or state with mixed results.

 

In the matchup columns, numbers that are in bold are margin averages, numbers that are not in bold are from states with only one poll thus far.

 

 

State

EV

BO/JM

HRC/JM

2004

1948-2004

DC

3

--

--

79.84

69.56

VT

3

34.00

10.00

20.14

6.93

HI

4

30.00

4.00

8.74

10.01

IL

21

29.00

11.00

10.34

0.09

CT

7

16.60

4.70

10.37

0.03

RI

4

15.00

17.00

20.75

16.23

ME

4

14.00

6.00

9.00

4.67

CA

55

13.70

13.40

9.95

0.96

NY

31

12.00

13.80

18.29

5.42

IA

7

10.30

5.90

0.67

3.84

MD

10

9.50

3.50

12.98

2.85

DE

3

9.00

5.00

7.59

0.05

NV

5

7.00

0.70

2.59

9.94

OR

7

5.50

3.30

4.16

1.58

WA

11

5.50

2.00

7.18

0.97

WI

10

4.80

3.60

0.38

1.83

CO

9

4.50

4.00

4.67

9.41

ND

3

4.00

19.00

27.36

18.36

NH

4

2.60

0.60

1.37

11.34

NJ

15

2.50

6.50

6.68

3.43

MA

12

2.20

13.50

25.16

14.75

MI

17

2.00

1.50

3.42

0.42

NM

5

1.00

3.80

0.79

4.10

MN

10

0.70

0.50

3.48

6.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

PA

21

0.30

0.20

2.50

0.25

TX

34

1.00

7.00

22.86

5.49

OH

20

2.00

1.70

2.11

5.15

FL

27

2.70

3.40

5.01

8.65

SC

8

3.00

6.00

17.08

7.47

NE

5

3.00

27.00

33.22

24.44

VA

13

3.50

9.00

8.20

10.14

AK

3

5.00

12.00

25.55

15.80

NC

15

5.50

12.40

12.44

4.13

SD

3

7.00

13.00

21.47

13.31

MT

3

8.00

20.00

20.50

9.54

MO

11

8.80

3.90

7.20

0.21

IN

11

9.00

17.00

20.68

13.29

KS

6

10.20

15.20

25.38

19.84

UT

5

11.00

38.00

45.54

26.59

MS

6

13.00

19.00

19.69

9.66

GA

15

13.00

20.50

16.60

3.17

ID

4

14.00

35.00

38.12

24.44

LA

9

15.00

10.00

14.51

3.64

TN

11

16.00

0.00

14.27

4.23

AZ

10

17.00

19.00

10.47

14.60

WV

5

18.00

5.00

12.86

3.81

WY

3

19.00

33.00

39.79

20.97

OK

7

21.00

8.00

31.23

16.03

AR

6

24.50

2.00

9.76

3.53

AL

9

24.80

15.80

25.62

10.25

KY

8

25.30

9.60

19.86

4.32

 

 

Facit: there are currently more states in an Obama/McCain matchup that become battlefields, which means that the election may not end up being as close as thought on election night. Obama has more states with secure margins than Clinton at this time.