30 January 2008

NV, SC and FLA wrap-up - statistics

This is a wrap up on Nevada, South Carolina and Florida.

 

Casualties of war since these three primaries: Thompson, Hunter, Kucinich, Giuliani and (on the same day!) Edwards. Thompson was already off the ballot in Florida, but since they allow early voting and well over 400,000 GOP ballots were already cast before the primary yesterday, his cut was still very small.

 

Nevada Republican Caucuses January 19, 2008

 

Candidate

State Del.

%

Margin

Delegates

Romney

22,649

51.10

+37.37

19

Paul

6,087

13.73

 

5

McCain

5,651

12.75

 

0

Huckabee

3,616

8.16

 

0

Thompson

3,521

7.94

 

0

Giuliani

1,910

4.31

 

0

Hunter

890

2.00

 

0

 

Total GOP state Delegates: 44,324

 

Nevada Democratic Caucuses January 19, 2008

 

Candidate

State Del.

%

Margin

Delegates

Clinton

5,355

50.71

+5.51

12

Obama

4,773

45.20

 

13

Edwards

396

3.75

 

0

Uncommitted

31

0.29

 

0

Kucinich

5

0.05

 

0

Richardson

0

0.00

 

0

 

 

Total DEM state Delegates from Primary 2008: 10,560

 

Total DEM state Delegates from Primary 2004: 3,492

 

Ratio 2008 to 2004: 3.02 to 1

 

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South Carolina REPUBLICAN PRIMARY January 19, 2008

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

McCain

147,283

33.25

+3.35

19

Huckabee

132,440

29.90

 

5

Thompson

69,467

15.68

 

0

Romney

67,132

15.16

 

0

Paul

16,054

3.62

 

0

Giuliani

9,494

2.14

 

0

Hunter

1,048

0.23

 

0

 

Total GOP votes cast: 442,918

 

Total GOP votes cast  from Primary 2000: 550,168

 

There were 107,250 less GOP voters in 2008 than in 2000.

 

Total GOP votes cast  from GE 2004: 937,574

South Carolina DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY January 26, 2008

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

Obama

295,091

55.75

+29.14

25

Clinton

141,128

26.61

 

12

Edwards

93,552

17.67

 

8

Kucinich

551

0.10

 

0

 

 

Total DEM votes cast:  529,323

 

Total from primary 2004: 292,383

 

There were 236,930 more voters in the DEM primary in 2008 as opposed to 2004.

That’s a ratio of 1.81 to 1 (not quite doubled over 2004)

 

Total DEM from GE 2004:  661,699

 

Grand Total from SC (both parties), 2008 primaries: 972,241

 

It is not possible to compare with 2000 as the DEMS held caucuses in SC while the GOP held a primary in that year.

 

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Florida REPUBLICAN PRIMARY January 29, 2008

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

McCain

693,425

36.11

+4.96

57

Romney

598,152

31.15

 

5

Giuliani

281,755

14.67

 

0

Huckabee

259,703

13.53

 

0

Paul

62,060

3.23

 

0

Thompson

22,287

1.16

 

0

Hunter

2,787

0.15

 

0

 

Total GOP votes cast: 1,920,169

 

Total GOP votes cast in the 2000 primary: 699,550

Total GOP votes cast in the 2004 GE: 3,964,522

In Florida, the number of primary votes cast for GOP candidates in 2008 was 2.74 times more than the primary votes cast for GOP candidates in 2000. I currently have no primary statistics for 2004.

 

Florida DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY January 29, 2008

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

Clinton

856,944

50.88

+17.10

0

Obama

568,930

33.78

 

0

Edwards

248,575

14.76

 

0

Kucinich

9,535

0.58

 

0

 

Total DEM votes cast in the 2008 primary: 1,683,984

 

Total DEM votes cast in the 2004 primary: 753,761

 

Total DEM votes cast in the 2000 primary: 551,995

 

In Florida, the number of primary votes cast for DEM candidates in 2008 more than doubled the primary votes cast for DEM candidates in 2004 and tripled the primary votes cast for DEM candidates in 2000.

 

 

Total DEM votes cast in the 2004 GE: 3,583,544

Ratio DEM GE 2004 to Primary 2004: 4.75 to 1

 

Florida total for both parties in the 2008 primary: 3,604,153

 

Florida total  votes cast in the 2004 GE:  7,609,811

Florida total  votes cast in the 2000 GE:  5,963,110

 

In this case, there were more Florida GOP primary voters (53.28%) to Florida DEM primary voters (46.72%). When one considers that the FLA delegates to the DEM convention will not be allowed to vote, it is amazing that there was this much turnout for the democratic party. Furthermore, this massive turnout on both sides indicates that extremely high voter turnout may well carry into November. Florida is the fifth state in a row (after IA, NH, NV and SC) with much higher voter turnout than in 2004.

 

Assuming that the number of voters in the primary in 2008 almost tripled the levels from 2000 and that 1,646,711 more voters voted in the GE in 2004 as opposed to 2000, it would not surprise me if the state of Florida brings 9,000,000 voters out on election day 2008. There are approximately 10,800,000 registered voters in FLA.